Notes from the Field: Portsmouth, near Parity
This Saturday (this morning and afternoon) I went to Portsmouth instead of Derry (in NH). The results were much different. Partly this was due to Kerry's reassurance via Iowa, and partly because of the demographics of the town. Busloads of Kerry supporters came by, as well as Dean buses. Three lonely wackos in a car came for Kucinich.
We left Alewife too late (8:30AM) for the pancake breakfast at an Auburn fire station, staffers told me that Clark drew an overflow crowd of more than 400 people.
When we came to the biggest intersection downtown, there was already a turf war going on between Dean and Clark folks. A Clark guy from Princeton told me (he bused up 45 people for the weekend) that they had gotten some good response honk-and-wave-wise in the morning before the Deanies had shown up. But I looked straight up behind him and it looked like the Dean Portsmouth office was right there.
The Dean supporters had patented Howard Dean brand warm hats, baseball hats, scarves and double sided 8x10s, as well as chants from the protest folks. "I say Howard you say Dean: [call] Howard, [response] Dean. I say Doctor and you say Dean: [call] Doctor, [response] Dean. I say Governor and you say Dean: [call] Governor, [response] Dean. I say President and you say Dean: [call] President, [response] Dean" You get the idea. One Princeton Clark guy poked fun at their chant, saying "I say Supreme Allied Commander of all Forces in Europe, and you say Clark!" OK, well he was a bit obnoxious how much he talked but it was extremely cold and it pissed the Deanies off, so I didn't mind.
There were swarms (dozens and dozens) of campaign volunteers (from Dean, Kerry, Clark, and Kucinich) on every corner, and tons of press too. I got interviewed by a kid at UNH who had a Newspaper class, filmed by two or three film crews, and saw multiple interviews going on around me. And that was all before the General showed up!
About the same time as Clark's van showed up, Doctor Dean got out and did the walk routine nearby too. Friends of mine (Gary) with Clark signs saw him get dropped off right next to them. Dean was none too pleased that the Clark folks were in his turf and crossed the street with a scowl on his face to see his supporters.
The number of volunteers was fairly equal. Dean or Kerry might have had more than another but Clark was pretty competitive. The "Arkansas Travelers" who went to NH for Clinton were there (very thick accents) plus some who knew Wes personally. Nice old ladies, who told me that the Dean folks had drawn a mustache on their "flat Wesley"-- a life-size poster cut out of Gen. Clark. I could see where they wiped off the 'stashe.
We went to a rally in an auditorium, where over 900 people showed up to hear Clark speak. About 100 people stood outside because the fire code barred more them from entering the building. [Don't believe my numbers? I saw a woman with a counter as I ascended the stairs to the balcony.] Clark met with them afterwards to say thanks.
Too bad he was introduced by Ted Dansen. But his wife, Mary Steenburgen, was a childhood friend of Clark's, so that was a neat story. "We've come a long way since Valentine Street," said the actress in Elf. Not as good as "I still believe in a place called Hope!" but it is a start.
They also were using it to film an ad for the February 3rd states, so they asked us to take off our jackets because the people in AZ wouldn't get how cold it was.
General Clark lost his much maligned sweater (ok so he's donating it to charity for homeless veterans in NH by auctioning it on EBay) and just got into a newer version of his stump speech. He still needs to learn not to step on the applause, but it was good otherwise. He said that family values are Democratic values. "Family values means valuing families!" He said, and went on to site Bush's poor record on jobs, education, and the environment. Clark then said what he would do to turn this all around. It was a pretty good speech and the crowd roared to its feet several times.
Overall, it wasn't as satisfying for me because I didn't get much time to talk to voters, save the UNH kid, but I think he was just taking notes and not necessarily being persuaded as to why I liked the General. So far, I see no need to change my projections. Kucinich is still crazy, Deanies are still mean and bitter, Kerry looks strong and they were pretty nice to us now that they are winning. In fact, the second time I stood on that corner with a 8x10, a Kerry man from Queens struck up a nice conversation with me. He liked Gert since she is from Brooklyn and said she was on the news for riding the F line. Another Kerry lady asked, "If Clark wins, who would he pick as his VP?" Which is surprising coming out of a person supporting the frontrunner who is supposedly coasting to the nomination now. To be nice, I said some one like Kerry.
"We all have to come together in the end," he said. And I agree and think we will. If it Kerry, or Clark, or Edwards, or even Dean. One of the Dean chants that we all liked was "My fingers are frozen, my toes are cold, Bush and Cheney are gettin' old" the other was "Hey Hey, Ho Ho Bush has gotta go!" But the toes one is more clever and appropriate for temps in the teens with hard Arctic winds.
Saturday, January 24, 2004
Friday, January 23, 2004
Can you do me a Favor?
In IA, the indicator that people ignored that foretold Kerry and Edwards' raise (and Dean and Gephardt's fall) was favorable/unfavorable ratings of the candidates, and how much more negative Dean was viewed towards the end.
Check out, then ARG's favorability ratings on the NH race, and see if you agree with me that Dean can't get second place: "Howard Dean's favorable is now at 31%, his unfavorable is 42%, and 27% are aware of Dean but undecided. Yesterday, Dean's favorable was 33%, his unfavorable was 30%, and 37% were undecided. Of the 31% with a favorable opinion of Dean, 28% say they will vote for Dean and 32% say they will vote for John Kerry.
Kerry's favorable is 77%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 9% are undecided. Wesley Clark's favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 19%, and 32% are undecided. John Edward's favorable is 56%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 30% are undecided. Joe Lieberman's favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 30%, and 21% are undecided. "
In IA, the indicator that people ignored that foretold Kerry and Edwards' raise (and Dean and Gephardt's fall) was favorable/unfavorable ratings of the candidates, and how much more negative Dean was viewed towards the end.
Check out, then ARG's favorability ratings on the NH race, and see if you agree with me that Dean can't get second place: "Howard Dean's favorable is now at 31%, his unfavorable is 42%, and 27% are aware of Dean but undecided. Yesterday, Dean's favorable was 33%, his unfavorable was 30%, and 37% were undecided. Of the 31% with a favorable opinion of Dean, 28% say they will vote for Dean and 32% say they will vote for John Kerry.
Kerry's favorable is 77%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 9% are undecided. Wesley Clark's favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 19%, and 32% are undecided. John Edward's favorable is 56%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 30% are undecided. Joe Lieberman's favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 30%, and 21% are undecided. "
Newton's Third Law
Or, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Unfortunately for Dean, two actions (one by him--"The Speech" and one by Kerry-- "The Comeback Kerry") have the same result: him sinking fast.
In fact, Kerry is opening up a huge lead in the state as Dean continues to fall. At first I thought most of this was coming at Clark's expense, but Clark still seemed to be hovering in the high teen to low twenties. And his new neighbor in the polls is Gov. Howard Dean, MD. In fact, in the latest ARG tracking poll, Dean has fallen to third. Remember how I used to think 30 points was his lower limit of support? How he couldn't lose NH at least, oh and that Kerry couldn't win? Well all that is out the window. I bet Clark wishes he would have gotten into the race in the summer and played in Iowa, where he could have gotten a Kerry bounce and pulled off an Edwards, instead of working at Dunkin Donuts or bagging groceries in NH.
Now that he won Iowa convincingly, all of Kerry's old supporters from the spring when he was in the lead have come back to the Junior Senator from Massachusetts. So will Kerry keep his comeback label or will he sink back into the funk that got him in trouble, just like Gore did, as Marshall intones in his The Hill collumn recently.
As for the debate, this was like the ones of old, in other words, a total waste of time...Yawn. Everyone, especially Dean, was afraid of sounding too negative so they said nothing. Except Sharpton, who proved he is nothing but a race-baiter with no knowledge of government, thank goodness he has no prayer. Clark was thrown crap questions that kept him on the defensive. As Josh Marshall noted, the panelists were totally biased: "You had one questioner who is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative, another who is the head political writer for a fiercely conservative newspaper, another who was a soft-soap local anchor man, and Peter Jennings. That tilt gave the questioning an unmistakable skew. Next time there’s a Republican primary debate I’m hoping they'll take the same approach and have the questioners be, maybe, Tom Oliphant, Molly Ivins, Matt Lauer and Tom Brokaw."
It almost seems like GOPers are happier that Kerry is now the man and not Dean. They can't wait to use all his liberal votes and liberal associations (Dukakias and Teddy Kennedy, Mass. SJC gay marriage ruling) to tar him with voters. So why did Clark keep getting horrible questions if he was totally out of it? Don't get me wrong, I think he was OK at best. This was his chance to show why he should win over Dean or Kerry, and he got no love. Not from the questioners nor from the audience, who barely clapped for him.
Nonetheless, I will make this bold prediction on Tuesday's results (to be revised on Monday if necessary):
Margin of Error: 4 points
# Latest NH Numbers: John Kerry 31%, Wesley Clark 20%, Howard Dean 18%, John Edwards 11% (ARG, 1/20-22); Kerry 34%, Dean 19%, Clark 14%, Edwards 11% (Globe/WBZ, 1/21-22); Kerry 30%, Dean 22%, Clark 14%, Edwards 7% (MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby, 1/20-22); Kerry 26%, Dean 19%, Clark 17%, Edwards 7% (WHDH/Suffolk, 1/21-22).
# More Numbers: Kerry 30%, Dean 16%, Clark 14%, Edwards 10% (FPC, 1/20-22); Kerry 30%, Dean 25%, Clark 19%, Edwards 8% (Fox/WCVB/WMUR/UNH, 1/19-21); Kerry 30%, Dean 25%, Clark 18%, Edwards 11% (CNN/USA Today/Gallup, 1/19-21).
Top Ten Ways I, Howard Dean, Can Turn Things Around [from Letterman last night]
10. "Switch to decaf"
9. "Unveil new slogan: 'Vote for Dean and get one dollar off you next purchase at Blimpie'"
8. "Marry Rachel on final episode of 'Friends'"
7. "Don't change a thing -- it's going great"
6. "Show a little more skin"
5. "Go on 'American Idol' and give 'em a taste of these pipes"
4. "Start working out and speaking with Austrian accent"
3. "I can't give specifics yet, but it involves Ted Danson"
2. "Fire the staffer who suggested we do this lousy Top Ten list instead of actually campaigning"
1. "Oh, I don't know -- maybe fewer crazy, redfaced rants"
Or, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Unfortunately for Dean, two actions (one by him--"The Speech" and one by Kerry-- "The Comeback Kerry") have the same result: him sinking fast.
In fact, Kerry is opening up a huge lead in the state as Dean continues to fall. At first I thought most of this was coming at Clark's expense, but Clark still seemed to be hovering in the high teen to low twenties. And his new neighbor in the polls is Gov. Howard Dean, MD. In fact, in the latest ARG tracking poll, Dean has fallen to third. Remember how I used to think 30 points was his lower limit of support? How he couldn't lose NH at least, oh and that Kerry couldn't win? Well all that is out the window. I bet Clark wishes he would have gotten into the race in the summer and played in Iowa, where he could have gotten a Kerry bounce and pulled off an Edwards, instead of working at Dunkin Donuts or bagging groceries in NH.
Now that he won Iowa convincingly, all of Kerry's old supporters from the spring when he was in the lead have come back to the Junior Senator from Massachusetts. So will Kerry keep his comeback label or will he sink back into the funk that got him in trouble, just like Gore did, as Marshall intones in his The Hill collumn recently.
As for the debate, this was like the ones of old, in other words, a total waste of time...Yawn. Everyone, especially Dean, was afraid of sounding too negative so they said nothing. Except Sharpton, who proved he is nothing but a race-baiter with no knowledge of government, thank goodness he has no prayer. Clark was thrown crap questions that kept him on the defensive. As Josh Marshall noted, the panelists were totally biased: "You had one questioner who is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative, another who is the head political writer for a fiercely conservative newspaper, another who was a soft-soap local anchor man, and Peter Jennings. That tilt gave the questioning an unmistakable skew. Next time there’s a Republican primary debate I’m hoping they'll take the same approach and have the questioners be, maybe, Tom Oliphant, Molly Ivins, Matt Lauer and Tom Brokaw."
It almost seems like GOPers are happier that Kerry is now the man and not Dean. They can't wait to use all his liberal votes and liberal associations (Dukakias and Teddy Kennedy, Mass. SJC gay marriage ruling) to tar him with voters. So why did Clark keep getting horrible questions if he was totally out of it? Don't get me wrong, I think he was OK at best. This was his chance to show why he should win over Dean or Kerry, and he got no love. Not from the questioners nor from the audience, who barely clapped for him.
Nonetheless, I will make this bold prediction on Tuesday's results (to be revised on Monday if necessary):
- Kerry: 30-35%
- Clark: 20-25%
- Dean:15-20%
- Edwards: 10-15+%
- Lieberman:5-10%
Margin of Error: 4 points
# Latest NH Numbers: John Kerry 31%, Wesley Clark 20%, Howard Dean 18%, John Edwards 11% (ARG, 1/20-22); Kerry 34%, Dean 19%, Clark 14%, Edwards 11% (Globe/WBZ, 1/21-22); Kerry 30%, Dean 22%, Clark 14%, Edwards 7% (MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby, 1/20-22); Kerry 26%, Dean 19%, Clark 17%, Edwards 7% (WHDH/Suffolk, 1/21-22).
# More Numbers: Kerry 30%, Dean 16%, Clark 14%, Edwards 10% (FPC, 1/20-22); Kerry 30%, Dean 25%, Clark 19%, Edwards 8% (Fox/WCVB/WMUR/UNH, 1/19-21); Kerry 30%, Dean 25%, Clark 18%, Edwards 11% (CNN/USA Today/Gallup, 1/19-21).
Top Ten Ways I, Howard Dean, Can Turn Things Around [from Letterman last night]
10. "Switch to decaf"
9. "Unveil new slogan: 'Vote for Dean and get one dollar off you next purchase at Blimpie'"
8. "Marry Rachel on final episode of 'Friends'"
7. "Don't change a thing -- it's going great"
6. "Show a little more skin"
5. "Go on 'American Idol' and give 'em a taste of these pipes"
4. "Start working out and speaking with Austrian accent"
3. "I can't give specifics yet, but it involves Ted Danson"
2. "Fire the staffer who suggested we do this lousy Top Ten list instead of actually campaigning"
1. "Oh, I don't know -- maybe fewer crazy, redfaced rants"
Thursday, January 22, 2004
On a dime
The one constant in politics is change...Oh and money. Those who have the money-- Dean and Clark-- need to change rapidly (six days) to ensure that they don't lose out big time.
Kerry finally changed his message and tone, sort of a half-Dean, half-Edwards populism with a little bit of veteran/Vietnam plugging on the side. Polls are all over the map in terms of actual numbers, but the results/trends are about the same: Kerry is close to or narrowly ahead of Dean, who is falling, and Clark is in third, with Edwards nipping ahead of Lieberman.
People who would vote for Kerry or Clark are basically the same voters, as Josh Marshall pointed out: "Those voters are moderate-ish Democrats, people for whom the electability pitch is an important one, people who warm, for various reasons, to the candidates’ military credentials. So that's the big fight." What Clark needs to do, is to argue, as Edwards has done, that Yankees can't do well in the South and therefore I am more Electable and better able to Beat Bush than Kerry or Dean.
Clark needs to alter what he is doing now that his momentum as evaporated and not soundesperatete or too liberal. Bashing Kerry's military creditentials won't get you anywhere. Bashing Kerry's "Washington Democrat" status could be a good move. You are the outsider now, do it.
As for Dean, he needs to stop the bleeding and sound like an adult, not sound bites for Techno. If he holds on to his support and gets back a few folks that were moving to Kerry or Clark, he is back. He can do it by being the outsider again, but it will be hard when he has Gore, Bradley, SEIU and AFSCME on his side. The other route is to just out organize everyone and make us believe in the magic of the internet again.
Edwards is the big mystery man. Could he sneak up on Kerry, Dean and Clark while they bleed each other dry? He doesn't need to do well here, if he gets a strong fourth even, I think he will be fine going into South Carolina, and if he beats Clark, then hprobablyly wins South Carolina. Keep on keeping on kid.
The trouble for the Iowa duo is that they spena lotot of cash (same with Dean) on the state. Kerry is trying to raise a million by Tuesday. Edwards is doing something similar. But Clark and Dean have put the troops and ads in the field in many future states. Can Kerry carry (sorry) his momentum, assuming he wins New Hampshire, into South Carolina, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and New Mexico by February 3rd along with Tennesseese and Virginiana by February 10th?
I don't see JFK creeping into first in any of those states until Michigan or Wisconsin which come a week after that. At this point at least, Clark is looking good in SC, AZ, DE, OK, ND, TN, and VA. Dean's numbers in all those states will collapse to a degree due to his Iowa and New Hampshire showing (assuming he loses NH). Can Clark's campaign successfullyly spin a 3rd place in NH as a win? If he wins South Carolina somehow over Edwards, I think smiley is in trouble. Clark need to win several states on 2/3 to stay in it, with or without a strong NH showing. Either he or Edwards will win TN and VA but Michigan and Wisconsin will probably go to Kerry or Dean.
After that who knows? He who is best at rapid change while still semi-consistant always wins (see Bush's "Reformer with Results" in SC and Dean's mimic "Deliverer with Results" in NH). My bet, if Edwards wins NH, it is all over, but that won't happen. My Groundhog says it will be at least another month of campaigning. This just got interesting. :)
The one constant in politics is change...Oh and money. Those who have the money-- Dean and Clark-- need to change rapidly (six days) to ensure that they don't lose out big time.
Kerry finally changed his message and tone, sort of a half-Dean, half-Edwards populism with a little bit of veteran/Vietnam plugging on the side. Polls are all over the map in terms of actual numbers, but the results/trends are about the same: Kerry is close to or narrowly ahead of Dean, who is falling, and Clark is in third, with Edwards nipping ahead of Lieberman.
People who would vote for Kerry or Clark are basically the same voters, as Josh Marshall pointed out: "Those voters are moderate-ish Democrats, people for whom the electability pitch is an important one, people who warm, for various reasons, to the candidates’ military credentials. So that's the big fight." What Clark needs to do, is to argue, as Edwards has done, that Yankees can't do well in the South and therefore I am more Electable and better able to Beat Bush than Kerry or Dean.
Clark needs to alter what he is doing now that his momentum as evaporated and not soundesperatete or too liberal. Bashing Kerry's military creditentials won't get you anywhere. Bashing Kerry's "Washington Democrat" status could be a good move. You are the outsider now, do it.
As for Dean, he needs to stop the bleeding and sound like an adult, not sound bites for Techno. If he holds on to his support and gets back a few folks that were moving to Kerry or Clark, he is back. He can do it by being the outsider again, but it will be hard when he has Gore, Bradley, SEIU and AFSCME on his side. The other route is to just out organize everyone and make us believe in the magic of the internet again.
Edwards is the big mystery man. Could he sneak up on Kerry, Dean and Clark while they bleed each other dry? He doesn't need to do well here, if he gets a strong fourth even, I think he will be fine going into South Carolina, and if he beats Clark, then hprobablyly wins South Carolina. Keep on keeping on kid.
The trouble for the Iowa duo is that they spena lotot of cash (same with Dean) on the state. Kerry is trying to raise a million by Tuesday. Edwards is doing something similar. But Clark and Dean have put the troops and ads in the field in many future states. Can Kerry carry (sorry) his momentum, assuming he wins New Hampshire, into South Carolina, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and New Mexico by February 3rd along with Tennesseese and Virginiana by February 10th?
I don't see JFK creeping into first in any of those states until Michigan or Wisconsin which come a week after that. At this point at least, Clark is looking good in SC, AZ, DE, OK, ND, TN, and VA. Dean's numbers in all those states will collapse to a degree due to his Iowa and New Hampshire showing (assuming he loses NH). Can Clark's campaign successfullyly spin a 3rd place in NH as a win? If he wins South Carolina somehow over Edwards, I think smiley is in trouble. Clark need to win several states on 2/3 to stay in it, with or without a strong NH showing. Either he or Edwards will win TN and VA but Michigan and Wisconsin will probably go to Kerry or Dean.
After that who knows? He who is best at rapid change while still semi-consistant always wins (see Bush's "Reformer with Results" in SC and Dean's mimic "Deliverer with Results" in NH). My bet, if Edwards wins NH, it is all over, but that won't happen. My Groundhog says it will be at least another month of campaigning. This just got interesting. :)
More good news for Kerry
# The Latest NH Numbers: John Kerry 31%, Howard Dean 21%, Wesley Clark 16%, John Edwards 11% (Globe/WBZ-TV/KRC, 1/20-21); Kerry 31%, Dean 21%, Clark 16%, Edwards 11% (Herald/RKM, 1/20-21); Kerry 27%, Dean 24%, Clark 15%, Edwards 8% (MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby, 1/19-21); Kerry 27%, Dean 19%, Clark 15%, Edwards 7% (WHDH 7News/Suffolk Univ., 1/20-21); Dean 29%, Kerry 27%, Clark 18%, Edwards 8% (Fox/WCVB-TV/WMUR-TV/UNH, 1/18-20).
# Kerry was endorsed by the Boston Globe and the Boston Herald.
And, if he is afraid of Chop Sticks, here's a formula he can use.
# The Latest NH Numbers: John Kerry 31%, Howard Dean 21%, Wesley Clark 16%, John Edwards 11% (Globe/WBZ-TV/KRC, 1/20-21); Kerry 31%, Dean 21%, Clark 16%, Edwards 11% (Herald/RKM, 1/20-21); Kerry 27%, Dean 24%, Clark 15%, Edwards 8% (MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby, 1/19-21); Kerry 27%, Dean 19%, Clark 15%, Edwards 7% (WHDH 7News/Suffolk Univ., 1/20-21); Dean 29%, Kerry 27%, Clark 18%, Edwards 8% (Fox/WCVB-TV/WMUR-TV/UNH, 1/18-20).
# Kerry was endorsed by the Boston Globe and the Boston Herald.
And, if he is afraid of Chop Sticks, here's a formula he can use.
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Now what?
Now that Kerry and Edwards pulled huge upset victories over the old labor giant Dick Gephardt and the internet-driven Howard Dean, what happens to everyone else's campaign and especially, New Hampshire?
Well, let's look at those polls. I am not one to site only favorable polls. So let's look: Latest NH tracking polls: John Kerry 27%, Howard Dean 24%, Wesley Clark 17%, John Edwards 9% (Globe/WBZ, 1/19-20); Dean 25%, Kerry 23%, Clark 16%, Edwards and Joe Lieberman 7% (MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby, 1/18-20); Dean 22%, Kerry 20%, Clark 15%, Edwards 6% (7News/Suffolk Univ., 1/19-20) and Dean 33%, Kerry 24%, Clark 18%, Edwards 8% (Fox/WCVB/WMUR, 1/17-19).
Edwards hasn't ticked up much in New Hampshire and I think it will be extremely tough for him to even get 3rd or 4th there. If he is smart, he will take his show on the road to South Carolina and hope that either Dean or Kerry wins, making Clark that much weaker in his formerly must win state (I think Iowa give him an excuse and cash to stay in longer).
Hats off to Kerry. He really pulled out all the stops and I guess it shows once again what he is capable of when his back is against the wall like it was in 1996. But the question remains, how much money and support does he have outside the Granite State. After all, he isn't taking matching funds and spend nearly $3 million on Iowa (less than Dean did but still, Dean has much more than he does).
In my boat, the internet revolution lost the battle and is seriously in doubt. Sure, it is a great way to raise money and to keep your supporters involved when they live far away from the action of the early primaries, but it didn't get caucus goers to show up in Iowa. Dean lost by 20 points! It also shows that his message was too angry, too focused on Gephardt and the war, and not what Dean would do if president (besides the exact opposite of Bush).
I would honestly be happy if Kerry or Edwards win the nomination, and feel pretty ok about their chances, assuming Kerry picks a Clark or a Graham to balance himself regionally. Dean just worried me, not because of the internet, but because he was railing against Clinton and Bush with almost equal vigior. I don't think a single one of his fans knows one of his proposals other than raising taxes (rolling back the Bush tax cut). Dean looks to be in major trouble. If he even gets second in New Hamphire, I think the media will pronouce him DOA and much of his following will evaporate. He will still have a lot of money and rapid supporters in many states, but I think losing two states they really should have won would be very demoralizing.
As for Clark, he is in trouble too. His whole campaign needs to rethink its strategy now that there isn't a Howard Dean to beat up on as much. If Clark haddn't "bobbled the question" in September on the war, he could go after Kerry on the war, but I guess he can leave Dean for that. Most of Clark's losses in New Hampshire (from 24% to 17%) have gone to Kerry and were mostly Kerry's dissolutioned supporters. Clark has the harder task of taking from both Dean and Kerry to bring himself back into second place and even contention for a win. If he does his job right in the next couple days, we could see a 3 way race for 1st place, instead of 3rd place.
Lieberman, is just like Dick Gephardt, a Dead Man Walking, but he still is refusing to leave saying he won't quit even if he can't get 3rd in NH which clearly is going to happen (he might not get 4th). When will Joe call it a show? please let the farce end soon. Al From, (and Bill Clinton) please give him a call, tell him enough is enough.
Speaking of Dick Gephardt, I would like to wish him happy trails. A man who spent nearly 3 decades in the congress as a tribune for the working man and woman, to the union laborers. He was classy the whole way, and gracious in defeat. I might have disagreed with him on the war or trade, but we can all still respect him. Please make him the next Secretary of Labor or head of a union lobbying group (like SEIU AFL-CIO or something). Gephardt said goodbye on Monday night that didn't leave a dry eye in the house.
Dean's curtain call, in contrast was horrible on Monday night. The former frontrunner was anything but gracious or calm and gave more fodder for the opposition with his scream routine. My father, who donated to the Dean campaign (don't ask me how much-- makes me sad just thinking about it), said "I want my money back!"
Kerry, as usual, droaned on way to much. There were some really good points in that speech and it was right for him to take a victory lap. But if I hear one more "And I say to you" I am going to scream myself. Just Say It should be their motto. No more "Frankly" or "And I say to you" or "In the words of" ....just say what you mean in plain English, thank you.
Edwards gave the best speech overall. Crisp happy and bullet pointing his message, which is a good one. The "two Americas" routine is excellent. The more he talks about what he will do to make it One America again, the better. Three cheers for Johnny.
Clark got too fiesty with Bob Dole on Larry King. He made me look bad in front of my family after I had talked him up so much. There is still time for him to get back second or even first, but he has to focus like a lazer beam on his domestic issues and foreign affairs, and not quibble with how many years Kerry spent in the services. Also, February 3rd and 10th seem like the days he can mount a comeback on the emmerging Kerry/Edwards threat with big wins, let alone Dean.
I didn't see Bush's State of the Union last night, but it sound like his greatest hits: The War on Terror Continues; Keep the Tax Cuts Perminant; Reaching out to the Swing Voters; and Tough Talk, Weak Action. When will he get it? Never, that is why we need a new president. One who cares about exploding health costs and the uninsured, about diplomatic relations, global treaties, the environment, homeland security, poverty, education, balancing budgets.
Now that Kerry and Edwards pulled huge upset victories over the old labor giant Dick Gephardt and the internet-driven Howard Dean, what happens to everyone else's campaign and especially, New Hampshire?
Well, let's look at those polls. I am not one to site only favorable polls. So let's look: Latest NH tracking polls: John Kerry 27%, Howard Dean 24%, Wesley Clark 17%, John Edwards 9% (Globe/WBZ, 1/19-20); Dean 25%, Kerry 23%, Clark 16%, Edwards and Joe Lieberman 7% (MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby, 1/18-20); Dean 22%, Kerry 20%, Clark 15%, Edwards 6% (7News/Suffolk Univ., 1/19-20) and Dean 33%, Kerry 24%, Clark 18%, Edwards 8% (Fox/WCVB/WMUR, 1/17-19).
Edwards hasn't ticked up much in New Hampshire and I think it will be extremely tough for him to even get 3rd or 4th there. If he is smart, he will take his show on the road to South Carolina and hope that either Dean or Kerry wins, making Clark that much weaker in his formerly must win state (I think Iowa give him an excuse and cash to stay in longer).
Hats off to Kerry. He really pulled out all the stops and I guess it shows once again what he is capable of when his back is against the wall like it was in 1996. But the question remains, how much money and support does he have outside the Granite State. After all, he isn't taking matching funds and spend nearly $3 million on Iowa (less than Dean did but still, Dean has much more than he does).
In my boat, the internet revolution lost the battle and is seriously in doubt. Sure, it is a great way to raise money and to keep your supporters involved when they live far away from the action of the early primaries, but it didn't get caucus goers to show up in Iowa. Dean lost by 20 points! It also shows that his message was too angry, too focused on Gephardt and the war, and not what Dean would do if president (besides the exact opposite of Bush).
I would honestly be happy if Kerry or Edwards win the nomination, and feel pretty ok about their chances, assuming Kerry picks a Clark or a Graham to balance himself regionally. Dean just worried me, not because of the internet, but because he was railing against Clinton and Bush with almost equal vigior. I don't think a single one of his fans knows one of his proposals other than raising taxes (rolling back the Bush tax cut). Dean looks to be in major trouble. If he even gets second in New Hamphire, I think the media will pronouce him DOA and much of his following will evaporate. He will still have a lot of money and rapid supporters in many states, but I think losing two states they really should have won would be very demoralizing.
As for Clark, he is in trouble too. His whole campaign needs to rethink its strategy now that there isn't a Howard Dean to beat up on as much. If Clark haddn't "bobbled the question" in September on the war, he could go after Kerry on the war, but I guess he can leave Dean for that. Most of Clark's losses in New Hampshire (from 24% to 17%) have gone to Kerry and were mostly Kerry's dissolutioned supporters. Clark has the harder task of taking from both Dean and Kerry to bring himself back into second place and even contention for a win. If he does his job right in the next couple days, we could see a 3 way race for 1st place, instead of 3rd place.
Lieberman, is just like Dick Gephardt, a Dead Man Walking, but he still is refusing to leave saying he won't quit even if he can't get 3rd in NH which clearly is going to happen (he might not get 4th). When will Joe call it a show? please let the farce end soon. Al From, (and Bill Clinton) please give him a call, tell him enough is enough.
Speaking of Dick Gephardt, I would like to wish him happy trails. A man who spent nearly 3 decades in the congress as a tribune for the working man and woman, to the union laborers. He was classy the whole way, and gracious in defeat. I might have disagreed with him on the war or trade, but we can all still respect him. Please make him the next Secretary of Labor or head of a union lobbying group (like SEIU AFL-CIO or something). Gephardt said goodbye on Monday night that didn't leave a dry eye in the house.
Dean's curtain call, in contrast was horrible on Monday night. The former frontrunner was anything but gracious or calm and gave more fodder for the opposition with his scream routine. My father, who donated to the Dean campaign (don't ask me how much-- makes me sad just thinking about it), said "I want my money back!"
Kerry, as usual, droaned on way to much. There were some really good points in that speech and it was right for him to take a victory lap. But if I hear one more "And I say to you" I am going to scream myself. Just Say It should be their motto. No more "Frankly" or "And I say to you" or "In the words of" ....just say what you mean in plain English, thank you.
Edwards gave the best speech overall. Crisp happy and bullet pointing his message, which is a good one. The "two Americas" routine is excellent. The more he talks about what he will do to make it One America again, the better. Three cheers for Johnny.
Clark got too fiesty with Bob Dole on Larry King. He made me look bad in front of my family after I had talked him up so much. There is still time for him to get back second or even first, but he has to focus like a lazer beam on his domestic issues and foreign affairs, and not quibble with how many years Kerry spent in the services. Also, February 3rd and 10th seem like the days he can mount a comeback on the emmerging Kerry/Edwards threat with big wins, let alone Dean.
I didn't see Bush's State of the Union last night, but it sound like his greatest hits: The War on Terror Continues; Keep the Tax Cuts Perminant; Reaching out to the Swing Voters; and Tough Talk, Weak Action. When will he get it? Never, that is why we need a new president. One who cares about exploding health costs and the uninsured, about diplomatic relations, global treaties, the environment, homeland security, poverty, education, balancing budgets.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
How'd it happen?
TNR's Ryan Lizza followed the Kerry Camp but decided to watch a Caucus, this one was in Urbandale, IA and sounds like a good sample of what happened on Monday night. "After the attendees broke into their presidential preference groups, the numbers looked like this: 40 people for Kerry, 44 for Edwards, 26 for Dean, and 9 for Gephardt. When the caucus chair announced that the forlorn Gephardt supporters standing against a wall were no longer viable, the Kerry and Edwards precinct captains descended upon them like wild dogs on road-kill carcasses. A Kerry candidacy, said Corey Goerdt, the 18-year-old Edwards captain who signed up with Edwards four days before, "is not going to work in the South." And in case he needed to make the case against Dean, he was also prepared. A thick caucus field manual issued by the Edwards campaign contained detailed persuasion scripts. On the outside was the Edwards campaign logo and the words "privileged and confidential." Goerdt let me flip through it. The way to contrast Edwards with Dean, it said, is to compare Dean's biography with Edwards' son-of-a-mill-worker upbringing. "Howard Dean is a Park Avenue elitist," it advised Edwards supporters to say. But Goerdt didn't need to use the line. By the time the Dean captain figured out he was supposed to be strengthening his numbers by picking off the undecideds and the Gephardt people, the Edwards and Kerry teams had already divvied them up between themselves. Final score: Kerry 53, Edwards 51, Dean 26."
Joe Trippi, Dean campaign manager before Monday night to reporters: "Undecideds don't break here. Every year. Does anybody go back and look at results before they cover the state? They never break! Never! There's like no year in which they ever broke. They walk in, they vote undecided." Wrong!
TNR's Ryan Lizza followed the Kerry Camp but decided to watch a Caucus, this one was in Urbandale, IA and sounds like a good sample of what happened on Monday night. "After the attendees broke into their presidential preference groups, the numbers looked like this: 40 people for Kerry, 44 for Edwards, 26 for Dean, and 9 for Gephardt. When the caucus chair announced that the forlorn Gephardt supporters standing against a wall were no longer viable, the Kerry and Edwards precinct captains descended upon them like wild dogs on road-kill carcasses. A Kerry candidacy, said Corey Goerdt, the 18-year-old Edwards captain who signed up with Edwards four days before, "is not going to work in the South." And in case he needed to make the case against Dean, he was also prepared. A thick caucus field manual issued by the Edwards campaign contained detailed persuasion scripts. On the outside was the Edwards campaign logo and the words "privileged and confidential." Goerdt let me flip through it. The way to contrast Edwards with Dean, it said, is to compare Dean's biography with Edwards' son-of-a-mill-worker upbringing. "Howard Dean is a Park Avenue elitist," it advised Edwards supporters to say. But Goerdt didn't need to use the line. By the time the Dean captain figured out he was supposed to be strengthening his numbers by picking off the undecideds and the Gephardt people, the Edwards and Kerry teams had already divvied them up between themselves. Final score: Kerry 53, Edwards 51, Dean 26."
Joe Trippi, Dean campaign manager before Monday night to reporters: "Undecideds don't break here. Every year. Does anybody go back and look at results before they cover the state? They never break! Never! There's like no year in which they ever broke. They walk in, they vote undecided." Wrong!
Friday, January 16, 2004
Surest Sign that Dick Gephardt is having trouble attracted the "youth vote:"
"*** Singer Michael Bolton to perform at event ***" -- from Gephardt's public schedule 1/16-1/18 (release).
In other Iowa News, Flesh colored latex on Nipples does not violate Des Moines anti-nudity laws [Polk County Judge] "Lipman, who presided over an October trial, was offered the chance to inspect usage of the latex in his court chambers. He declined, noting in a written decision that 'the court did not feel it could accurately re-create the same lighting conditions' as in Beach Girls." [the strip club in question]
Another fun quote from the article "Court papers say police then were confronted by women 'who held their breasts up to the officers and argued that they did have material covering their breasts.'" That must have been a great scene.
"*** Singer Michael Bolton to perform at event ***" -- from Gephardt's public schedule 1/16-1/18 (release).
In other Iowa News, Flesh colored latex on Nipples does not violate Des Moines anti-nudity laws [Polk County Judge] "Lipman, who presided over an October trial, was offered the chance to inspect usage of the latex in his court chambers. He declined, noting in a written decision that 'the court did not feel it could accurately re-create the same lighting conditions' as in Beach Girls." [the strip club in question]
Another fun quote from the article "Court papers say police then were confronted by women 'who held their breasts up to the officers and argued that they did have material covering their breasts.'" That must have been a great scene.
In defense of Iowa and New Hampshire
Blogger extraordiniare MattS argues that Iowa shouldn't have so much say. "It seems to me that Iowa is a gimmick more than anything; 3% of a state shouldn't determine the next President. Despite all the resources invested here, most people just don't care." The sad thing is, most people don't care anywhere, even in 2000 when pundits kept saying over and over how close it was. Turnout barely got above 50%.
For some reason, no other states besides Iowa and New Hampshire seem to be capable of taking their place without ruining much of what is good about those states. So here's my pro-list on both.
Now Matt is right, there are lots of problems with the current system, most of which would be eliminated if primaries were made more accessible to more people. If all states adopted open, mail-in/internet primaries (where both Independents, Democrats, and Republicans can vote for a McCain, a Dean, a Lieberman or a Clark). This way, poorer, internet based insurgency campaigns would have more of a fighting chance against institutional types (Bush, Gephardt, Kerry, et al) by gaining free attention via the media and internet and getting everyone to vote without having to brave the cold or rain or whatever.
It may make it harder for the media to call elections, but this is an art that is dying fast, due to cell phones and caller ID and privacy oriented Americans. As hooked on politics as I am, I could wait until morning. Really I could.
Blogger extraordiniare MattS argues that Iowa shouldn't have so much say. "It seems to me that Iowa is a gimmick more than anything; 3% of a state shouldn't determine the next President. Despite all the resources invested here, most people just don't care." The sad thing is, most people don't care anywhere, even in 2000 when pundits kept saying over and over how close it was. Turnout barely got above 50%.
For some reason, no other states besides Iowa and New Hampshire seem to be capable of taking their place without ruining much of what is good about those states. So here's my pro-list on both.
- Both are swing states: Bush barely lost Iowa and Gore barely lost New Hampshire.
- The Midwest is a battleground area in 2004, where Iowa, Ohio, and Missouri seem to be the biggest targets for both parties.
- New Hampshire hates taxes, and so do swing voters, going through New Hampshire makes democratic candidates rethink their approach to taxes (just look at Clark or Lieberman's plans tailor made for the state).
- Those who do vote/caucus are highly engaged for the most part and care deeply about the issues. Try to find a sizable population like that in any other state. It takes decades to cultivate this political culture.
- Since they are small, candidates must rely on doorknocking, visibility, calls, town halls and the like, not Television like in bigger states were you simply can't be everywhere. This helps more marginal candidates who would otherwise be drowned out with money from other insider politicians (see Bush versus McCain in New Hampshire). Also, it gives candidates a chance to learn how to speak to real people like a human being (see the marked improvement of Kerry from Iowa and Clark from New Hampshire-- and Dean from both since 2002).
- These states tend to eliminate excessive candidates early, so that most voters down the road won't be confused with too many varieties of vanilla [although most people expect most of the 8 democrats to remain until February 4th, about the same time of year as past years.]
- These states need media attention and money that comes with "political tourism" unlike a New York, Texas, Florida, or California.
Now Matt is right, there are lots of problems with the current system, most of which would be eliminated if primaries were made more accessible to more people. If all states adopted open, mail-in/internet primaries (where both Independents, Democrats, and Republicans can vote for a McCain, a Dean, a Lieberman or a Clark). This way, poorer, internet based insurgency campaigns would have more of a fighting chance against institutional types (Bush, Gephardt, Kerry, et al) by gaining free attention via the media and internet and getting everyone to vote without having to brave the cold or rain or whatever.
It may make it harder for the media to call elections, but this is an art that is dying fast, due to cell phones and caller ID and privacy oriented Americans. As hooked on politics as I am, I could wait until morning. Really I could.
Thursday, January 15, 2004
Dean getting some Braun in Iowa, where he needs it
Carol Mosley Braun that is. The ex-IL Sen. is finally dropping out of the race and will endorse Dean today in Iowa. Can't say it's surprising, Carol was deeply in debt over this "presidential" run of hers. Her candidacy was really about re-establishing her credibility with the Democratic party, who sees her as damaged goods.
This also helps Dean. One less liberal drain on his vote, one more black person endorsing him. Dean is on an endorsement fix lately. I wish he would focus more on getting voters/caucus goers endorsements instead.
Meanwhile, Iowa is getting even harder to predict; the latest Zogby poll has Kerry narrowly ahead of Dean and Gephardt. The much hyped Zogby has Kerry at 21.6 percent with Dean and Gephardt both at 20.9 percent. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained two percentage points to 17.1 percent, well within the pollÂ’s margin of error, putting all four top contenders in a statistical tie.
So is Kerry's surge and Edwards' reawakening anything more than buyers remorse? Will the organization of Dean and Gephardt make this poll meaningless? (My Bet: yes) If you thought ARG tracking poll numbers were suspect, caucus polling, especially by Zogby (who called the CO race to be a blowout win in 2002 the wrong way) is dubious at best.
So who's gonna win IA? Las Vegas odds are still in Dean's favor, although I think his win will be narrow if that. Second place is either Gephardt or Kerry's, and I don't know how Gephardt can pretend he is viable if he finishes 3rd. Ditto for Edwards: how do you take 4th place and win South Carolina?
If Edwards or Gephardt does well (2nd and 1st respectively) look for them to ditch New Hampshire and go straight to South Carolina to try to take out Clark or Dean. Personally I hope Kerry gets 3rd, so he gets no momentum into NH and most of his support melts to Clark. If Clark can stay within 10 points or less of Dean in NH, look for the media to boost him up going into South Carolina and the other 2/3 states, and for it to become a 2 man race. Then it could go down to March, where Clark will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat (hopefully that rabbit's name will be Bill Clinton) to win states like CA and NY over Dean, otherwise Dean wins it on Super Tuesday.
Meanwhile, in NH, the latest ARG poll shows Clark is within 5 points of Dean: Dean 29%, Clark 24%, Kerry 15%. As Josh Marshall says about this and the Iowa poll, "The common denominator seems pretty clear: Dean's support is falling -- not precipitously, but measurably -- and at least some Dean supporters appear to be going to his near rivals in each state." Could it become a 3 man race? Who knows.
Carol Mosley Braun that is. The ex-IL Sen. is finally dropping out of the race and will endorse Dean today in Iowa. Can't say it's surprising, Carol was deeply in debt over this "presidential" run of hers. Her candidacy was really about re-establishing her credibility with the Democratic party, who sees her as damaged goods.
This also helps Dean. One less liberal drain on his vote, one more black person endorsing him. Dean is on an endorsement fix lately. I wish he would focus more on getting voters/caucus goers endorsements instead.
Meanwhile, Iowa is getting even harder to predict; the latest Zogby poll has Kerry narrowly ahead of Dean and Gephardt. The much hyped Zogby has Kerry at 21.6 percent with Dean and Gephardt both at 20.9 percent. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained two percentage points to 17.1 percent, well within the pollÂ’s margin of error, putting all four top contenders in a statistical tie.
So is Kerry's surge and Edwards' reawakening anything more than buyers remorse? Will the organization of Dean and Gephardt make this poll meaningless? (My Bet: yes) If you thought ARG tracking poll numbers were suspect, caucus polling, especially by Zogby (who called the CO race to be a blowout win in 2002 the wrong way) is dubious at best.
So who's gonna win IA? Las Vegas odds are still in Dean's favor, although I think his win will be narrow if that. Second place is either Gephardt or Kerry's, and I don't know how Gephardt can pretend he is viable if he finishes 3rd. Ditto for Edwards: how do you take 4th place and win South Carolina?
If Edwards or Gephardt does well (2nd and 1st respectively) look for them to ditch New Hampshire and go straight to South Carolina to try to take out Clark or Dean. Personally I hope Kerry gets 3rd, so he gets no momentum into NH and most of his support melts to Clark. If Clark can stay within 10 points or less of Dean in NH, look for the media to boost him up going into South Carolina and the other 2/3 states, and for it to become a 2 man race. Then it could go down to March, where Clark will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat (hopefully that rabbit's name will be Bill Clinton) to win states like CA and NY over Dean, otherwise Dean wins it on Super Tuesday.
Meanwhile, in NH, the latest ARG poll shows Clark is within 5 points of Dean: Dean 29%, Clark 24%, Kerry 15%. As Josh Marshall says about this and the Iowa poll, "The common denominator seems pretty clear: Dean's support is falling -- not precipitously, but measurably -- and at least some Dean supporters appear to be going to his near rivals in each state." Could it become a 3 man race? Who knows.
Wednesday, January 14, 2004
Is New Hampshire Winnable for Clark?
CW (conventional wisdom) says "No Way!" After all, Dean has been comfortably ahead in NH for about 5 months now. The ARG tracking poll, the most respected poll out there, has Clark at 22%, Dean at 32% and Kerry at 13%, which is much better than previously (Clark started out at like 3 way back in August) but still 10 points is a lot to make up. But as ARG pollster Dick Bennett informs us, if the Clark trend continues, he could be "leading the race by the end of the weekend."
Since Clark was forced, due to poor campaign management and a late start, to skip Iowa, he will miss the bounce that Dean, Gephardt or Kerry will get from the good news.
Then again, a new Boston Herald poll of likely NH Dem primary voters found Dean with 29% support; Wesley Clark 20%; Kerry 15%; Joe Lieberman 7%; and Edwards 5%. Could Dean's support be that weak? I had said before that there was no way that Dean could melt below 35%, but two polls now show it happening. I suspect these numbers to rebound after Iowa. Unless...
What if Dean loses Iowa? Not only that, what if his second and Kerry's or Edwards' 3rd is so close that it magnifies Dean's loss (I doubt Kerry or Edwards can win Iowa but you never know, I guess).
As much as they are trying to counter spin it, if Dean doesn't win Iowa I think he is in trouble. And if Clark comes within single digits of Dean by then, he might even surpass him. Of course, that is assuming trendlines continue. I am sure once the Dean machine gets to focus on NH more, and with more candidates showing up in NH after next Monday, Clark may slip down or slow down his surge.
The press still seems poised to anoint Clark the anti-Dean. But then again, as the pasted post by Chuck Todd of The Hotline below eloquently states, "But the beauty of conventional wisdom is that it's usually created in order to be debunked down the road."I totally agree with his analysis, which is why I have it pasted below (duh).
CW (conventional wisdom) says "No Way!" After all, Dean has been comfortably ahead in NH for about 5 months now. The ARG tracking poll, the most respected poll out there, has Clark at 22%, Dean at 32% and Kerry at 13%, which is much better than previously (Clark started out at like 3 way back in August) but still 10 points is a lot to make up. But as ARG pollster Dick Bennett informs us, if the Clark trend continues, he could be "leading the race by the end of the weekend."
Since Clark was forced, due to poor campaign management and a late start, to skip Iowa, he will miss the bounce that Dean, Gephardt or Kerry will get from the good news.
Then again, a new Boston Herald poll of likely NH Dem primary voters found Dean with 29% support; Wesley Clark 20%; Kerry 15%; Joe Lieberman 7%; and Edwards 5%. Could Dean's support be that weak? I had said before that there was no way that Dean could melt below 35%, but two polls now show it happening. I suspect these numbers to rebound after Iowa. Unless...
What if Dean loses Iowa? Not only that, what if his second and Kerry's or Edwards' 3rd is so close that it magnifies Dean's loss (I doubt Kerry or Edwards can win Iowa but you never know, I guess).
As much as they are trying to counter spin it, if Dean doesn't win Iowa I think he is in trouble. And if Clark comes within single digits of Dean by then, he might even surpass him. Of course, that is assuming trendlines continue. I am sure once the Dean machine gets to focus on NH more, and with more candidates showing up in NH after next Monday, Clark may slip down or slow down his surge.
The press still seems poised to anoint Clark the anti-Dean. But then again, as the pasted post by Chuck Todd of The Hotline below eloquently states, "But the beauty of conventional wisdom is that it's usually created in order to be debunked down the road."I totally agree with his analysis, which is why I have it pasted below (duh).
ON THE TRAIL
By Chuck Todd
NationalJournal.com
Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2004
DES MOINES, Iowa -- With the countdown clock to Iowa about to change from days to hours, there is a growing consensus that the Democratic race will quickly become a two-person February sprint between former Gov. Howard Dean, D-Vt., and retired Gen. Wesley Clark (D).
What used to be known as the stop-Dean movement has transformed a bit into a stop-Clark campaign.
What used to be known as the stop-Dean movement has transformed a bit into a stop-Clark campaign. And where does this stop-Clark drive begin? In Iowa, of course, the one state Clark opted to avoid.
Since Dean's initial surge to the front-runner position, every campaign, including Clark's, has acknowledged that at some point this nomination fight was going to become a two-person race. All of the candidates have resigned themselves to the fact that Dean will be one of the finalists. Consequently, it is the race to be the last other candidate standing that's suddenly heating up.
The Dean camp has been nervous about Clark for weeks. In fact, when Clark first entered the race, Dean's team was the first to admit he'd be a major factor. The other campaigns were slower in acknowledging Clark's potential strength, and now it appears many are regretting it because without a stunning upset in Iowa at this point, a Dean-Clark showdown appears inevitable.
But the beauty of conventional wisdom is that it's usually created in order to be debunked down the road. So here's a look at the campaigns' various stop-Clark strategies:
• Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.: Outside of Dean, the candidate most engaged in a stop-Clark campaign is the one-time New Hampshire front-runner. Anything short of a victory in New Hampshire was supposed to sound Kerry's death knell. That said, the campaign fell so far behind Dean in the Granite State that a surge now to make Kerry's New Hampshire loss better than expected may keep the Massachusetts senator alive for another week or two.
But Clark's nonstop New Hampshire advertising and campaigning have made Kerry a third-place also-ran in New Hampshire. Kerry's best chance to overtake Clark at this point is a better-than-expected showing in Iowa. What would be better than expected? First or second -- and that's the flaw in the Kerry plan to stop Clark. Surpassing either Dean or Gephardt seems like a tall order because of the institutional organizational strength each Iowa co-front-runner has. Kerry doesn't have any major union infrastructure helping him, and that alone could stop him. Still, Kerry has one thing going for him -- an interest by Dean's campaign in seeing him catch a little fire in Iowa. Could some crazy Joe Trippi-Iowa-jujitsu help Kerry overtake Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt (D)? Anything is possible.
• Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C.: His challenge is not dissimilar to Kerry's. He must figure out how to break through the Dean vs. Gephardt storyline in Iowa to get a bump in New Hampshire. Without a major Iowa breakthrough, it will be hard to get the press to focus on anything outside the Dean-Clark showdown.
Is a surprise second place in Iowa realistic for Edwards? At this point, it seems unlikely, and yet Edwards has to figure out how to get incredibly close. A very close third maybe, just maybe, might be enough to make the media give him a second look in New Hampshire. But with so much ground to make up on Clark in the state, Edwards might not have enough time, even with some media attention. To gain real momentum, Edwards would have to divert from his all-positive primary message, and if one is to believe the Edwards campaign, it's that message that has given him newfound traction in Iowa. Edwards could be in a box that he just can't break out of in time to stop Clark before Clark ends up beating him in South Carolina.
• Gephardt: Of the three major contenders attempting to stop Clark's rise in New Hampshire, Gephardt has the easiest plan: Win Iowa. Overtake Dean by even a single delegate in Iowa, and Gephardt gets a bounce that's far better than anything he experienced in 1988. Of course, there's another path Gephardt could follow that isn't there for the other major contenders -- he could skip New Hampshire and move straight to South Carolina. An Iowa win, coupled with his high-profile endorsement from leading South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn (D), could catapult Gephardt into the finals with Dean. One of the toughest decisions Gephardt will have to make if he wins Iowa is this New Hampshire-South Carolina decision.
• Dean: Believe it or not, the campaign that might be the most intent on developing a stop-Clark strategy is Dean's. The longer it takes for a one-on-one race to develop, the more likely Dean won't be stopped. The Dean camp would love nothing more than to see Kerry pull the upset in Iowa and edge ahead of Gephardt for second -- breathing a tiny bit of life into the Massachusetts Democrat heading into New Hampshire. The way the Dean campaign sees it, they already overtook Kerry once in a one-on-one showdown earlier in the summer -- there's no reason that if they're pitted against him again in the finals, they won't blow him away again.
These scenarios aside, it's still a good bet that a two-man race between Dean and Clark is inevitable. When examining it, we're struck by the similarities between this showdown and the one between President Bush and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2000. Like Bush, Dean leads the money primary. Like Bush, Dean is running a 50-state campaign, meaning cherry-picking primary states is out of the question. Like Bush, Dean is being painted as the less electable candidate for the general election. Like Bush, Dean has A-list surrogates to help him in states down the road should Clark get traction. Like Bush, Dean has a prickly relationship with the media. Like Bush, Dean is facing a media that is in the midst of propping up his potentially toughest foe.
Finally, like Bush, Dean has a potential rival in Clark who could be vulnerable to basic party loyalty, which eventually dooms the insurgency.
There are a few things Clark has going for him, though, that McCain did not. The biggest is money. Unlike McCain, Clark is already on the air in late-February states (like Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin) in order to plant the seeds for a national boomlet should New Hampshire go as planned. McCain had to wing it from primary to primary post-New Hampshire. Also, unlike McCain, Clark has some members of the party establishment actually pulling for him (i.e. the Clintons). And unlike McCain, there are enough February primaries that he can withstand a loss or two to Dean as long as he makes it up by winning another state.
The upcoming February sprint to the nomination could be an interesting roller coaster.
Chuck Todd is editor-in-chief of The Hotline, National Journal's daily briefing on politics. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.
Tuesday, January 13, 2004
More truth about Bush's lies
Ex-Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was fired for disagreeing too many times with the president's policy on tax cuts. See, O'Neill lacked Washington smarts and refused to do the "leaving for personal reasons" crap. It got nasty. And now he helps Ron Suskind write a damaging book on the Bush Administration, and then talked to 60 Minutes.
"O'Neill says that the president did not make decisions in a methodical way: there was no free-flow of ideas or open debate.
"At cabinet meetings, he says the president was 'like a blind man in a roomful of deaf people. There is no discernible connection,' forcing top officials to act 'on little more than hunches about what the president might think.'
"He also says that President Bush was disengaged, at least on domestic issues, and that disturbed him. And he says that wasn't his experience when he worked as a top official under Presidents Nixon and Ford, or the way he ran things when he was chairman of Alcoa.
"'From the very beginning, there was a conviction, that Saddam Hussein was a bad person and that he needed to go,' says O'’Neill, who adds that going after Saddam was topic "A" 10 days after the inauguration - eight months before Sept. 11.
“'From the very first instance, it was about Iraq. It was about what we can do to change this regime,' says Suskind. 'Day one, these things were laid and sealed.'
"As treasury secretary, O'Neill was a permanent member of the National Security Council. He says in the book he was surprised at the meeting that questions such as 'Why Saddam?' and 'Why now?' were never asked."
So what was BushCo's reply? To discredit him with unnamed sources saying he was ineffective and gaffe prone, they sent in life-long Dubya pal and chief fundraiser in 2000 (now Commerce Secretary) Don Evans to say Bush is a strong leader in cabinet meetings. As Paul Krugman points out they failed to discredit or disprove what O'Neill said about the war or tax cuts, because it is the truth.
"How can Howard Dean's assertion that the capture of Saddam hasn't made us safer be dismissed as bizarre, when a report published by the Army War College says that the war in Iraq was a "detour" that undermined the fight against terror? How can charges by Wesley Clark and others that the administration was looking for an excuse to invade Iraq be dismissed as paranoid in the light of Mr. O'Neill's revelations?"
My personal favorite is that they are already investigating O'Neill for a potential securty breach given that the word "Secret" appeared stamped on the illegible documents shown on a 60 minutes graphic. Yet at the same time, they sure took their sweet time with a real security breach when ex-Ambassador Joe Wilson's wife was outed as an undercover CIA operative when he spilled the beans on Cheney's trumped up "evidence" of Saddam's ambitions.
In other maddening news about how BushCo is taking this country down the tube, the International Monetary Fund, who often chides 3rd world countries or poorer countries like Mexico, Argentina, or Bukino Faso for its budgeting to get loans, wrote a scathing report about its concerns about the US budget under George W. Bush.
The IMF is largely controlled by the US and EU because those who put in the most $ get the most say on how to spend it. But, unfortunately for Bush, they also happen to be staffed with Economists. In their report that warned of the dangers to the global economy posed by the United States' lack of spending discipline, its reliance on foreign creditors, and its failure to plan adequately for future government liabilities.
Meanwhile, the new Treasury Secretary, John Snow, seems to have no trouble lying. Saying we can go to the Moon, Mars, give Prescription Drugs to the elderly, occupy Iraq and Kabul, keep massive tax cuts for the rich, oh and halve the decifit in Bush's second term.
"In the 2000 campaign," notes Slate's Daniel Gross, "Vice President Al Gore said we should sequester the Social Security surpluses in a 'lockbox' to prevent appropriators from spending them. Bush agreed in principle. But that commitment went out the window soon after the inauguration. In his first three budgets, Bush (who had the good fortune to take office at a time when the surpluses were growing rapidly) and Congress used $480 billion in excess Social Security payroll taxes to fund basic government operations—about $160 billion per year!
"By so doing, Washington spenders have masked the size of the deficit. For Fiscal 2004—which began in October 2003—if you factor out the $164 billion Social Security surplus, the on-budget deficit will be at least $639 billion, rather close to the modern peak of 6 percent of GDP. And according to its own projections (the bottom line of Table 8 represents the Social Security surplus), the administration plans to spend an additional $990 billion in such funds between now and 2008." And we know that those numbers are low. Which means were in even worse shape than we think, for now and the future."
OK this is too depressing, let's talk about the (hopefully) 44th president of the US.
SUSA says: Clark coming on strong. Plus: more proof that Clark is more electable than Dean
Arizona (PDF) (12/16 results in parenthesis) MoE 4.7%
Clark 39 (29)
Dean 32 (31)
Lieberman 8 (10)
Kerry 5 (7)
Gephardt 4 (9)
Other 7
Undecided 4
New Hampshire (PDF) (12/14-16 results in parenthesis) MoE 4.7%
Dean 35 (45)
Clark 26 (11)
Kerry 13 (15)
Lieberman 9 (11)
Edwards 6 (6)
Gephardt 3 (4)
Other 5
Undecided 2
Missouri (PDF) MoE 4.7%
Gephardt 37
Dean 19
Clark 15
Kerry 6
Other 6
Undecided 6
Lieberman 5
Edwards 5
Rasmussen's national poll Notes that "In the "Red States," those carried by George W. Bush in the last election, Clark is the favorite of 21%, Dean is the choice of 15% and Edwards attracts support from 12%. In the Blue States (carried by Gore), Dean leads Clark 27% to 13%."
Ex-Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was fired for disagreeing too many times with the president's policy on tax cuts. See, O'Neill lacked Washington smarts and refused to do the "leaving for personal reasons" crap. It got nasty. And now he helps Ron Suskind write a damaging book on the Bush Administration, and then talked to 60 Minutes.
"O'Neill says that the president did not make decisions in a methodical way: there was no free-flow of ideas or open debate.
"At cabinet meetings, he says the president was 'like a blind man in a roomful of deaf people. There is no discernible connection,' forcing top officials to act 'on little more than hunches about what the president might think.'
"He also says that President Bush was disengaged, at least on domestic issues, and that disturbed him. And he says that wasn't his experience when he worked as a top official under Presidents Nixon and Ford, or the way he ran things when he was chairman of Alcoa.
"'From the very beginning, there was a conviction, that Saddam Hussein was a bad person and that he needed to go,' says O'’Neill, who adds that going after Saddam was topic "A" 10 days after the inauguration - eight months before Sept. 11.
“'From the very first instance, it was about Iraq. It was about what we can do to change this regime,' says Suskind. 'Day one, these things were laid and sealed.'
"As treasury secretary, O'Neill was a permanent member of the National Security Council. He says in the book he was surprised at the meeting that questions such as 'Why Saddam?' and 'Why now?' were never asked."
So what was BushCo's reply? To discredit him with unnamed sources saying he was ineffective and gaffe prone, they sent in life-long Dubya pal and chief fundraiser in 2000 (now Commerce Secretary) Don Evans to say Bush is a strong leader in cabinet meetings. As Paul Krugman points out they failed to discredit or disprove what O'Neill said about the war or tax cuts, because it is the truth.
"How can Howard Dean's assertion that the capture of Saddam hasn't made us safer be dismissed as bizarre, when a report published by the Army War College says that the war in Iraq was a "detour" that undermined the fight against terror? How can charges by Wesley Clark and others that the administration was looking for an excuse to invade Iraq be dismissed as paranoid in the light of Mr. O'Neill's revelations?"
My personal favorite is that they are already investigating O'Neill for a potential securty breach given that the word "Secret" appeared stamped on the illegible documents shown on a 60 minutes graphic. Yet at the same time, they sure took their sweet time with a real security breach when ex-Ambassador Joe Wilson's wife was outed as an undercover CIA operative when he spilled the beans on Cheney's trumped up "evidence" of Saddam's ambitions.
In other maddening news about how BushCo is taking this country down the tube, the International Monetary Fund, who often chides 3rd world countries or poorer countries like Mexico, Argentina, or Bukino Faso for its budgeting to get loans, wrote a scathing report about its concerns about the US budget under George W. Bush.
The IMF is largely controlled by the US and EU because those who put in the most $ get the most say on how to spend it. But, unfortunately for Bush, they also happen to be staffed with Economists. In their report that warned of the dangers to the global economy posed by the United States' lack of spending discipline, its reliance on foreign creditors, and its failure to plan adequately for future government liabilities.
Meanwhile, the new Treasury Secretary, John Snow, seems to have no trouble lying. Saying we can go to the Moon, Mars, give Prescription Drugs to the elderly, occupy Iraq and Kabul, keep massive tax cuts for the rich, oh and halve the decifit in Bush's second term.
"In the 2000 campaign," notes Slate's Daniel Gross, "Vice President Al Gore said we should sequester the Social Security surpluses in a 'lockbox' to prevent appropriators from spending them. Bush agreed in principle. But that commitment went out the window soon after the inauguration. In his first three budgets, Bush (who had the good fortune to take office at a time when the surpluses were growing rapidly) and Congress used $480 billion in excess Social Security payroll taxes to fund basic government operations—about $160 billion per year!
"By so doing, Washington spenders have masked the size of the deficit. For Fiscal 2004—which began in October 2003—if you factor out the $164 billion Social Security surplus, the on-budget deficit will be at least $639 billion, rather close to the modern peak of 6 percent of GDP. And according to its own projections (the bottom line of Table 8 represents the Social Security surplus), the administration plans to spend an additional $990 billion in such funds between now and 2008." And we know that those numbers are low. Which means were in even worse shape than we think, for now and the future."
OK this is too depressing, let's talk about the (hopefully) 44th president of the US.
SUSA says: Clark coming on strong. Plus: more proof that Clark is more electable than Dean
Arizona (PDF) (12/16 results in parenthesis) MoE 4.7%
Clark 39 (29)
Dean 32 (31)
Lieberman 8 (10)
Kerry 5 (7)
Gephardt 4 (9)
Other 7
Undecided 4
New Hampshire (PDF) (12/14-16 results in parenthesis) MoE 4.7%
Dean 35 (45)
Clark 26 (11)
Kerry 13 (15)
Lieberman 9 (11)
Edwards 6 (6)
Gephardt 3 (4)
Other 5
Undecided 2
Missouri (PDF) MoE 4.7%
Gephardt 37
Dean 19
Clark 15
Kerry 6
Other 6
Undecided 6
Lieberman 5
Edwards 5
Rasmussen's national poll Notes that "In the "Red States," those carried by George W. Bush in the last election, Clark is the favorite of 21%, Dean is the choice of 15% and Edwards attracts support from 12%. In the Blue States (carried by Gore), Dean leads Clark 27% to 13%."
Monday, January 12, 2004
Notes from the field: Derry redux
This Saturday, like last Saturday, I went to the Derry field office of the Wesley Clark campaign to volunteer, even with the frigid temps. In short, you can still feel the movement, even if the press has started their nitpick routine on the General.
The only major difference this time, I was at a different transfer station. Last time, I translated transfer station as dump or rubbish pile, now I think recycling center might be more apt. Anyway, I went to the Derry one this time (last time was nearby Salem) with a fellow draftee and staffer. I held up the "Braving the Cold for Wes Clark" poster which had a hunck taken out of it, presumably from the large gusts of wind that come when cars whip past you in this weather. Two-thirds of all cars gave us wave, many of which were the fingers-just-off-the steering-wheel-I-see-you-there type, but there was also lots of thumbs up and hearty waves with a smile and a full 90 degree turn of the head to say hello. most of the last third were actual honks, which always got us in a good mood and a handful of thumbs-down at most. (out of dozens to hundreds of cars/trucks)
We were positioned a few hundred feet outside the station, on the only road going in and out of the station, next to the communal sandpile. The staffer with me's unofficial duty was to see if a particular guy was working the booth of the transfer station whom the female Derry staffer had taken a liking too. Unfortunately, it was a crusty old man instead.
A bit later, a volunteer from Yale came by with his own handmade sign "Honk for Wes" and we got more honks out his hop and beg routine. Again, this was a good honk and wave result given it was three guys on the side of the road. (girls tend get many more honks as a response, partly due to their dances and cheers)
Some real characters showed up to showel sand near us. One said, "If you showel sand for me, I'll vote for Clark." and our Yalee hapily oblidged. The man used the opportunity to ask how Clark stands on various issues and we pointed him to the website for more details. Another old man, asked us where we were from. Upon hearing that we were from MA and CT, he promptly called us "fur-in-ers" or Foriegners for those of you who don't speak wannabe hick (I say wannabe because this old man turned out to be originally from OH, Cincinati I think). This Bush supporter said he was sick and tired of all these people calling him and mailing him stuff and knocking on his door. "I can't even turn on the TV any more without watching one of those damn commercials," he said.
The man went on questioning the democratic candidates "business sense." When we pointed out that Bush failed two companies, couldn't find oil in TX, whereas Clark has a masters in Economics from Oxford, taught it at West Point, was an Investment Banker for about 1.5-2 years, he muttered something but couldn't be dissuaded.
After he left, we decided to head back to the office. "That made my whole time in NH," chirped my friend and staffer. There we met up with the other 10-15 folks who came up to volunteer in Derry (there was at least 70 volunteers in Manchester that day to drop off DVD copies of the Clark bio film "American Son"). Another group had gone out to the Salem transfer station and managed to hand out Clark bars to lots and lots of poeple wanting in line. "The Clark bars really work," a classmate of mine said, "too bad they're such crappy candies." However, I noted, I am glad we aren't working for "General Snickers"
This classmate is a very intense, smart person (in a Brown University sort fo way) whom I took an education policy class with. He is taking off the semester or year to work for Clark, and I had no idea he was into the General. In the Union-Leader gpt 3 letters to the editor in to 2 Howard Dean 3 Bush 1 Kerry and 1 Kucinich.
In summary it was a very good day and turn out considering the weather. Clark is now up 9 points on Kerry and within the margin of my 15 point spread of Dean. If Kerry keeps going down, Clark could narrow the Dean gap to maybe 10 points or so, and Lieberman might get 3rd.
But at what a cost! Lieberman's campaign can't afford to pay the phone bills in any state besides NH, which is also why his whole staff is up there. Even if he does get third in NH (which I don't think will last, Kerry will tick up after 2nd or 3rd in IA), he has no money to do anything in the February 3rd states. I can't wait until him and Edwards get out, becuase it is really getting annoying these days. Almost as annoying Clark is getting to Dean.
At the same time, Dean is trying to beat back alot of attacks against him, including new information that Dean took money from special interests for speeches when governor of Vermont and complaints that he had no minorities in his cambinet during this nearly dozen years as governor of one of the whitest states-- 98%-- in the country. Instead of doing the brave political thing and note this difficulty of finding qualified minority Vermonsters, Dean, the son of a milieu worker, noted that he has the endorsements of more members of the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus than any other presidential hopeful.
Rev. Al Sharpton ridiculed that, saying in last night's debate, "I don't think that answers the questions ... I think you only need co-signers if your credit is bad." Thanks Al, for reminding me why you are around. What a great line.
This Saturday, like last Saturday, I went to the Derry field office of the Wesley Clark campaign to volunteer, even with the frigid temps. In short, you can still feel the movement, even if the press has started their nitpick routine on the General.
The only major difference this time, I was at a different transfer station. Last time, I translated transfer station as dump or rubbish pile, now I think recycling center might be more apt. Anyway, I went to the Derry one this time (last time was nearby Salem) with a fellow draftee and staffer. I held up the "Braving the Cold for Wes Clark" poster which had a hunck taken out of it, presumably from the large gusts of wind that come when cars whip past you in this weather. Two-thirds of all cars gave us wave, many of which were the fingers-just-off-the steering-wheel-I-see-you-there type, but there was also lots of thumbs up and hearty waves with a smile and a full 90 degree turn of the head to say hello. most of the last third were actual honks, which always got us in a good mood and a handful of thumbs-down at most. (out of dozens to hundreds of cars/trucks)
We were positioned a few hundred feet outside the station, on the only road going in and out of the station, next to the communal sandpile. The staffer with me's unofficial duty was to see if a particular guy was working the booth of the transfer station whom the female Derry staffer had taken a liking too. Unfortunately, it was a crusty old man instead.
A bit later, a volunteer from Yale came by with his own handmade sign "Honk for Wes" and we got more honks out his hop and beg routine. Again, this was a good honk and wave result given it was three guys on the side of the road. (girls tend get many more honks as a response, partly due to their dances and cheers)
Some real characters showed up to showel sand near us. One said, "If you showel sand for me, I'll vote for Clark." and our Yalee hapily oblidged. The man used the opportunity to ask how Clark stands on various issues and we pointed him to the website for more details. Another old man, asked us where we were from. Upon hearing that we were from MA and CT, he promptly called us "fur-in-ers" or Foriegners for those of you who don't speak wannabe hick (I say wannabe because this old man turned out to be originally from OH, Cincinati I think). This Bush supporter said he was sick and tired of all these people calling him and mailing him stuff and knocking on his door. "I can't even turn on the TV any more without watching one of those damn commercials," he said.
The man went on questioning the democratic candidates "business sense." When we pointed out that Bush failed two companies, couldn't find oil in TX, whereas Clark has a masters in Economics from Oxford, taught it at West Point, was an Investment Banker for about 1.5-2 years, he muttered something but couldn't be dissuaded.
After he left, we decided to head back to the office. "That made my whole time in NH," chirped my friend and staffer. There we met up with the other 10-15 folks who came up to volunteer in Derry (there was at least 70 volunteers in Manchester that day to drop off DVD copies of the Clark bio film "American Son"). Another group had gone out to the Salem transfer station and managed to hand out Clark bars to lots and lots of poeple wanting in line. "The Clark bars really work," a classmate of mine said, "too bad they're such crappy candies." However, I noted, I am glad we aren't working for "General Snickers"
This classmate is a very intense, smart person (in a Brown University sort fo way) whom I took an education policy class with. He is taking off the semester or year to work for Clark, and I had no idea he was into the General. In the Union-Leader gpt 3 letters to the editor in to 2 Howard Dean 3 Bush 1 Kerry and 1 Kucinich.
In summary it was a very good day and turn out considering the weather. Clark is now up 9 points on Kerry and within the margin of my 15 point spread of Dean. If Kerry keeps going down, Clark could narrow the Dean gap to maybe 10 points or so, and Lieberman might get 3rd.
But at what a cost! Lieberman's campaign can't afford to pay the phone bills in any state besides NH, which is also why his whole staff is up there. Even if he does get third in NH (which I don't think will last, Kerry will tick up after 2nd or 3rd in IA), he has no money to do anything in the February 3rd states. I can't wait until him and Edwards get out, becuase it is really getting annoying these days. Almost as annoying Clark is getting to Dean.
At the same time, Dean is trying to beat back alot of attacks against him, including new information that Dean took money from special interests for speeches when governor of Vermont and complaints that he had no minorities in his cambinet during this nearly dozen years as governor of one of the whitest states-- 98%-- in the country. Instead of doing the brave political thing and note this difficulty of finding qualified minority Vermonsters, Dean, the son of a milieu worker, noted that he has the endorsements of more members of the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus than any other presidential hopeful.
Rev. Al Sharpton ridiculed that, saying in last night's debate, "I don't think that answers the questions ... I think you only need co-signers if your credit is bad." Thanks Al, for reminding me why you are around. What a great line.
Friday, January 09, 2004
Putting the Reality in Television
My favorite reality TV of late is NBC's The Apprentice a purposely campy Donald Trump chooses a new president for a company show.
The great part about it is not just that it cuts through the crap of what the show is really about (bickering and backstabbing and butt-kissing vs. "surviving" on an island) but that I know that at least one of the cartoon-like characters is really actually how they seem on TV.
If you saw the show last night after Friends, you will know whom I speak, if not, watch it next week and pay attention to Sam the guy who tried to rent us his girlfriends apartment my fiancee and I Summer 2002 in suburban (MoCo) DC. I say tried because he was extremely forceful in his sales push, and the place was crap (both in quality and price) compared to what we ended up getting about a block away.
Poor Sam, he really tries way too hard. I am still trying to figure out how he has a girlfriend, because this is the kind of guy that would try to "close the sale" on that too.
Since Trump gets to decide who to fire (and the contestants get to choose the 3 he has to choose from) the dynamics are different than a normal reality show.
Everyone hates Sam, yet his aggressiveness and "spunk" got him a second chance this week. No doubt producers will pressure "The Donald" to keep Sam as long as possible, since the kid makes great TV. And gives used car salesmen a bad name, but that's another story.
Now on to politics
Rumor has it that John Kerry is set to get IA Sen. Tom Harkin's endorsement this afternoon in a coup that not only could singlehandedly revive Kerry's campaign but doom Howard Dean and makes sense for Harkin, if you think about it.
The "Hamlet of the Heartland" is liberal and take no prisoners like Dean, but after Gore and Bradley's endorsement, he looks like small potatoes and just following the crowd if he were to support him. And even if he won, Deanies could still say, we didn't need you plusably. Gephardt has Unions behind him that Harkin will need in 2008 when he runs for reelection, but again, it is a bit late for Harkin to get in and make enough dent or news out of it. Plus, even if Dick wins IA, were does he win after that? MO certainly but SC MI and others are doubtful since he has very little staff or money elsewhere, at least compared to Clark and Dean. So if Tom bets on Dick, he may get (sorry for the horrible pun) screwed.
By backing Kerry in constrast, there will be huge stories about it "Is this Howard's End?" and "Kerry the Komeback Kid" or KtKK. And Kerry, one could argue, has enough surge in IA to actually win it (see polls below), if he got the strong orginization backing of his fellow senator. That is of course assuming that the latest Dean gaffe kills him "If you look at the caucuses system, they are dominated by the special interests in both parties" - Dean in 2000 on Canadian TV. He added, "The special interests don't represent the centrist tendencies of the American people. They represent the extremes." More fun Dean quotes, "I can't stand there and listen to everyone else's opinion for eight hours about how to fix the world," and the Iowa Caucuses are "a waste of time." Couldn't agree with you more, Governor.
In other bad press for the Doctor, The Dean campaign has fired "two low-level volunteers who went into Kerry's campaign offices pretending to be average voters." Kerry claims it is a "Paid Dean Staffer" Afterall, how do you fire two "low-level volunteers?"
If Kerry actually won IA, both Gephardt and Dean would be toast, although Dean would still be strong in NH. Perhaps Kerry's supporters would come back to him, and the anti-Dean vote would coalesse around Kerry. Even better, it becomes a Kerry-Clark race, since Dean's winabilty is a big part of his support. [Dream on -Ed.]
Survey USA has this questioned result for the Iowa Caucuses:
Dean 29 (43)
Gephardt 22 (23)
Kerry 21 (15)
Edwards 17 (10)
Other 8 (?)
Undecided 3 (?)
KCCI's Research 2000 IA Poll of Dem caucus voters found Dean had 29% support; Dick Gephardt 25%; John Kerry 18%; Undecided 13% and John Edwards 8% [ That sounds more like it -Ed]
This all means that turnout will be key for all three and that Sen. Edwards should take his VP campaign on the road.
According to the Arizona Republic, Clark "hazed" incoming West Point Plebes: "Instead of sending us on fool's errands or making us repeat useless memorized information, he asked questions about current events." Oh boy, that's rough. I do that to my fiancee too.
And now for something completely different
Mike Gibby: "Something needs to be done. Immigrants are taking all of the good jobs." Mark Goldy: "Please. Name one good job taken by an immigrant." Gibby: "Governor of California" ("Late, Late Show").
My favorite reality TV of late is NBC's The Apprentice a purposely campy Donald Trump chooses a new president for a company show.
The great part about it is not just that it cuts through the crap of what the show is really about (bickering and backstabbing and butt-kissing vs. "surviving" on an island) but that I know that at least one of the cartoon-like characters is really actually how they seem on TV.
If you saw the show last night after Friends, you will know whom I speak, if not, watch it next week and pay attention to Sam the guy who tried to rent us his girlfriends apartment my fiancee and I Summer 2002 in suburban (MoCo) DC. I say tried because he was extremely forceful in his sales push, and the place was crap (both in quality and price) compared to what we ended up getting about a block away.
Poor Sam, he really tries way too hard. I am still trying to figure out how he has a girlfriend, because this is the kind of guy that would try to "close the sale" on that too.
Since Trump gets to decide who to fire (and the contestants get to choose the 3 he has to choose from) the dynamics are different than a normal reality show.
Everyone hates Sam, yet his aggressiveness and "spunk" got him a second chance this week. No doubt producers will pressure "The Donald" to keep Sam as long as possible, since the kid makes great TV. And gives used car salesmen a bad name, but that's another story.
Now on to politics
Rumor has it that John Kerry is set to get IA Sen. Tom Harkin's endorsement this afternoon in a coup that not only could singlehandedly revive Kerry's campaign but doom Howard Dean and makes sense for Harkin, if you think about it.
The "Hamlet of the Heartland" is liberal and take no prisoners like Dean, but after Gore and Bradley's endorsement, he looks like small potatoes and just following the crowd if he were to support him. And even if he won, Deanies could still say, we didn't need you plusably. Gephardt has Unions behind him that Harkin will need in 2008 when he runs for reelection, but again, it is a bit late for Harkin to get in and make enough dent or news out of it. Plus, even if Dick wins IA, were does he win after that? MO certainly but SC MI and others are doubtful since he has very little staff or money elsewhere, at least compared to Clark and Dean. So if Tom bets on Dick, he may get (sorry for the horrible pun) screwed.
By backing Kerry in constrast, there will be huge stories about it "Is this Howard's End?" and "Kerry the Komeback Kid" or KtKK. And Kerry, one could argue, has enough surge in IA to actually win it (see polls below), if he got the strong orginization backing of his fellow senator. That is of course assuming that the latest Dean gaffe kills him "If you look at the caucuses system, they are dominated by the special interests in both parties" - Dean in 2000 on Canadian TV. He added, "The special interests don't represent the centrist tendencies of the American people. They represent the extremes." More fun Dean quotes, "I can't stand there and listen to everyone else's opinion for eight hours about how to fix the world," and the Iowa Caucuses are "a waste of time." Couldn't agree with you more, Governor.
In other bad press for the Doctor, The Dean campaign has fired "two low-level volunteers who went into Kerry's campaign offices pretending to be average voters." Kerry claims it is a "Paid Dean Staffer" Afterall, how do you fire two "low-level volunteers?"
If Kerry actually won IA, both Gephardt and Dean would be toast, although Dean would still be strong in NH. Perhaps Kerry's supporters would come back to him, and the anti-Dean vote would coalesse around Kerry. Even better, it becomes a Kerry-Clark race, since Dean's winabilty is a big part of his support. [Dream on -Ed.]
Survey USA has this questioned result for the Iowa Caucuses:
Dean 29 (43)
Gephardt 22 (23)
Kerry 21 (15)
Edwards 17 (10)
Other 8 (?)
Undecided 3 (?)
KCCI's Research 2000 IA Poll of Dem caucus voters found Dean had 29% support; Dick Gephardt 25%; John Kerry 18%; Undecided 13% and John Edwards 8% [ That sounds more like it -Ed]
This all means that turnout will be key for all three and that Sen. Edwards should take his VP campaign on the road.
According to the Arizona Republic, Clark "hazed" incoming West Point Plebes: "Instead of sending us on fool's errands or making us repeat useless memorized information, he asked questions about current events." Oh boy, that's rough. I do that to my fiancee too.
And now for something completely different
Mike Gibby: "Something needs to be done. Immigrants are taking all of the good jobs." Mark Goldy: "Please. Name one good job taken by an immigrant." Gibby: "Governor of California" ("Late, Late Show").
Thursday, January 08, 2004
as Clark's NH gap b/w him and Kerry widdens, Dean thinks about shifting is IA supporters to Kerry to hurt Clark
WH '04 Dem Primary Matchup
1/5-7 1/4-6 1/3-5 1/2-4 1/1-3 12/31-1/2 12/30-1/1 12/31-29
Dean 35% 36% 37% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37%
Clark 18 16 14 12 12 13 13 13
Kerry 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 16
Lieberman 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
Gephardt 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6
Edwards 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Kucinich 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
Braun - - - - - - - -
Sharpton - - - - - - - -
Undec. 16 17 16 17 16 18 19 16
WH '04 Dem Primary Matchup
1/5-7 1/4-6 1/3-5 1/2-4 1/1-3 12/31-1/2 12/30-1/1 12/31-29
Dean 35% 36% 37% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37%
Clark 18 16 14 12 12 13 13 13
Kerry 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 16
Lieberman 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
Gephardt 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6
Edwards 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Kucinich 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
Braun - - - - - - - -
Sharpton - - - - - - - -
Undec. 16 17 16 17 16 18 19 16
Meeting the Press
I told you yesterday that Clark is in second place in New Hampshire, but I waited until today to tell you about the recent media re-discovery of Clark, now that his campaign is hitting its stride.
Slate's Chris Suellentrop wrote two articles about Clark, one on his tag-along tale of Clark's rhetoric and support in New Hampshire: "As a candidate, Clark has improved his skills dramatically since I watched him speak in September. He's smoother, more coherent, and more concise. He's also willing to give voters at least mildly unpopular answers."
The second is on Dean's dirty tricks flyer that attacks Clark, and the General's glee that he is being attacked.
"On one side, the flyer reads "WESLEY CLARK: PRO-WAR," followed by a list of the general's much-discussed statements in support of the congressional Iraq war resolution. It's the stuff that gave Clark grief when he entered the race in the fall: He advised Rep. Katrina Swett in October 2002 to vote for the resolution, and he told reporters this past September that "on balance, I probably would have voted for it." On the other side, the flyer reads "WESLEY CLARK: REAL DEMOCRAT?" followed by Clark's much-discussed statements in praise of President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and the Bush Cabinet, plus evidence of his pro-Republican voting record in presidential elections (until 1992)."
Dr. Hypocrisy strikes again. Wasn't it Dean who whined, "Terry, make them stop picking on me!" and said "We Democrats shouldn't attack each other." When he is being attacked? The good doctor is also being muzzled by his staff to ensure that he won't say any more stupid stuff and make the gap between him and Clark narrow nationally and in New Hampshire.
In response to the flyer, Clark told the Times:
"Asked about his voting history by a voter at the forum, General Clark said, 'I never was a Republican.'
He added that many in the military did not belong to a political party but chose candidates who were 'strong on national defense.' [like most Reagan Democrats]
'After the Vietnam War, the Democratic Party and some of the presidential candidates seemed to be wobbling all over the map on being strong for America,' General Clark said. 'So I voted for people who would take care of the country.'
General Clark, who repeatedly refers to himself as 'a leader, not a politician,' said of the critical flier, 'I guess that's what professional politicians do.'"
Dean can't call Clark a "Washington Democrat" this is an outsider vs. outsider race. Clark can even claim he is more of an outsider, since he has never run for an office, unlike Dean's dozen years in the Governor's chair of puny Vermont.
Tried to get a job from this last profiler, but he didn't hire me, and I am not upset, because he does a better job articulating why I like Gen. Clark:
"While many of the Democratic presidential candidates might agree with the tenor of Clark's broad [foreign] policy guidelines, it's not clear that they would be willing to back up the soft side of U.S. power with its harder edge. With Clark, on the other hand, there is little doubt. It was Clark, after all, who during the Bosnian war demanded--to the point of hectoring a furious superior officer--that bombing continue until Milosevic withdrew from Sarajevo. And it was Clark, together with a handful of Clinton officials, who pushed for military intervention in Kosovo when the Pentagon brass and many NATO leaders preferred to do nothing. Clark, unlike his rivals, has actually led wars, not just voted for them."
I told you yesterday that Clark is in second place in New Hampshire, but I waited until today to tell you about the recent media re-discovery of Clark, now that his campaign is hitting its stride.
Slate's Chris Suellentrop wrote two articles about Clark, one on his tag-along tale of Clark's rhetoric and support in New Hampshire: "As a candidate, Clark has improved his skills dramatically since I watched him speak in September. He's smoother, more coherent, and more concise. He's also willing to give voters at least mildly unpopular answers."
The second is on Dean's dirty tricks flyer that attacks Clark, and the General's glee that he is being attacked.
"On one side, the flyer reads "WESLEY CLARK: PRO-WAR," followed by a list of the general's much-discussed statements in support of the congressional Iraq war resolution. It's the stuff that gave Clark grief when he entered the race in the fall: He advised Rep. Katrina Swett in October 2002 to vote for the resolution, and he told reporters this past September that "on balance, I probably would have voted for it." On the other side, the flyer reads "WESLEY CLARK: REAL DEMOCRAT?" followed by Clark's much-discussed statements in praise of President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and the Bush Cabinet, plus evidence of his pro-Republican voting record in presidential elections (until 1992)."
Dr. Hypocrisy strikes again. Wasn't it Dean who whined, "Terry, make them stop picking on me!" and said "We Democrats shouldn't attack each other." When he is being attacked? The good doctor is also being muzzled by his staff to ensure that he won't say any more stupid stuff and make the gap between him and Clark narrow nationally and in New Hampshire.
In response to the flyer, Clark told the Times:
"Asked about his voting history by a voter at the forum, General Clark said, 'I never was a Republican.'
He added that many in the military did not belong to a political party but chose candidates who were 'strong on national defense.' [like most Reagan Democrats]
'After the Vietnam War, the Democratic Party and some of the presidential candidates seemed to be wobbling all over the map on being strong for America,' General Clark said. 'So I voted for people who would take care of the country.'
General Clark, who repeatedly refers to himself as 'a leader, not a politician,' said of the critical flier, 'I guess that's what professional politicians do.'"
Dean can't call Clark a "Washington Democrat" this is an outsider vs. outsider race. Clark can even claim he is more of an outsider, since he has never run for an office, unlike Dean's dozen years in the Governor's chair of puny Vermont.
Tried to get a job from this last profiler, but he didn't hire me, and I am not upset, because he does a better job articulating why I like Gen. Clark:
"While many of the Democratic presidential candidates might agree with the tenor of Clark's broad [foreign] policy guidelines, it's not clear that they would be willing to back up the soft side of U.S. power with its harder edge. With Clark, on the other hand, there is little doubt. It was Clark, after all, who during the Bosnian war demanded--to the point of hectoring a furious superior officer--that bombing continue until Milosevic withdrew from Sarajevo. And it was Clark, together with a handful of Clinton officials, who pushed for military intervention in Kosovo when the Pentagon brass and many NATO leaders preferred to do nothing. Clark, unlike his rivals, has actually led wars, not just voted for them."
Wednesday, January 07, 2004
Turning Point: Clark's in 2nd in NH
I know I had said with each passing day, Kerry sinks and Clark rises, but now it is offical:
WH '04 Dem Primary Matchup
1/4-6 1/3-5 1/2-4 1/1-3 12/31-1/2 12/30-1/1 12/31-29
Dean 36% 37% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37%
Clark 16 14 12 12 13 13 13
Kerry 13 14 14 14 14 15 16
Lieberman 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
Gephardt 6 6 6 6 5 5 6
Edwards 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Kucinich 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
Braun - - - - - - -
Sharpton - - - - - - -
Undec. 17 16 17 16 18 19 16
Pollster Dick Bennett: "Clark's strength remains among men age 45 and older and he has a new television ad running in New Hampshire that gained very favorable playback from women on Monday. If the trend to Clark continues and he is able to improve among women age 45 and older, he will be alone in second place." Bennett notes "Clark was in front of Kerry" by 4 points in 1/4 polling, and by 6 points on 1/5 (release, 1/7).
Kerry hopes that second place in IA will resurrect him in NH. Fat chance. At best, he would get 2nd place. Dean's 35-40% is pretty solid, but the question is, what part of Kerry's 13 points is solid? Could JFK come up with only 10%? Although Dean's lead is still huge (20 points) I think Clark can chip into that lead. The media are chomping at the bit for another guy to write about.
Boston Globe's Lehigh writes, A "sense of skittishness" about Howard Dean is "beginning to stir" in NH. Whether that "doubt freshens" to a "gaffe-driven gust" or is "merely an evanescent breeze of unease" remains to be seen, but "creeping disquiet" Dean came up "often" in conversations with more than "three-dozen voters" on 1/2 and 1/5.
The "misgivings don't appear strong enough" to "deprive" Dean of a NH win. But they do "raise the prospect" of a "strong second place" finish for another candidate. The two candidates voters are "looking most closely at" as "Dean alternatives" -- John Kerry and Wesley Clark -- have "very different ideas" about how to "contest" NH.
Clark has a "clearer sense" of NH "momentum," drawing "large crowds" at events. His campaign thinks he can "win" by "focusing like a laser" on NH. He's now in the "midst" of an "11-day stay," and he plans to come back in "midmonth" and "remain" through the 1/27 primary (1/7).
I know I had said with each passing day, Kerry sinks and Clark rises, but now it is offical:
WH '04 Dem Primary Matchup
1/4-6 1/3-5 1/2-4 1/1-3 12/31-1/2 12/30-1/1 12/31-29
Dean 36% 37% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37%
Clark 16 14 12 12 13 13 13
Kerry 13 14 14 14 14 15 16
Lieberman 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
Gephardt 6 6 6 6 5 5 6
Edwards 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Kucinich 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
Braun - - - - - - -
Sharpton - - - - - - -
Undec. 17 16 17 16 18 19 16
Pollster Dick Bennett: "Clark's strength remains among men age 45 and older and he has a new television ad running in New Hampshire that gained very favorable playback from women on Monday. If the trend to Clark continues and he is able to improve among women age 45 and older, he will be alone in second place." Bennett notes "Clark was in front of Kerry" by 4 points in 1/4 polling, and by 6 points on 1/5 (release, 1/7).
Kerry hopes that second place in IA will resurrect him in NH. Fat chance. At best, he would get 2nd place. Dean's 35-40% is pretty solid, but the question is, what part of Kerry's 13 points is solid? Could JFK come up with only 10%? Although Dean's lead is still huge (20 points) I think Clark can chip into that lead. The media are chomping at the bit for another guy to write about.
Boston Globe's Lehigh writes, A "sense of skittishness" about Howard Dean is "beginning to stir" in NH. Whether that "doubt freshens" to a "gaffe-driven gust" or is "merely an evanescent breeze of unease" remains to be seen, but "creeping disquiet" Dean came up "often" in conversations with more than "three-dozen voters" on 1/2 and 1/5.
The "misgivings don't appear strong enough" to "deprive" Dean of a NH win. But they do "raise the prospect" of a "strong second place" finish for another candidate. The two candidates voters are "looking most closely at" as "Dean alternatives" -- John Kerry and Wesley Clark -- have "very different ideas" about how to "contest" NH.
Clark has a "clearer sense" of NH "momentum," drawing "large crowds" at events. His campaign thinks he can "win" by "focusing like a laser" on NH. He's now in the "midst" of an "11-day stay," and he plans to come back in "midmonth" and "remain" through the 1/27 primary (1/7).
now there's proof
The secret is out, I am a Clark supporter. Here's the picture on the Clark event finder. I am the tool not looking straight into the General's eyes. But at least I figured out where the camera was.
After you are done with that, see how much you would save under Clark's tax plan. It is a pretty clear, simple but powerful plan, offering tax cuts for most and eleminating taxes for 34 million Americans.
The secret is out, I am a Clark supporter. Here's the picture on the Clark event finder. I am the tool not looking straight into the General's eyes. But at least I figured out where the camera was.
After you are done with that, see how much you would save under Clark's tax plan. It is a pretty clear, simple but powerful plan, offering tax cuts for most and eleminating taxes for 34 million Americans.
Tuesday, January 06, 2004
Dean's boo-boo
Just a week ago, Howard Dean was complaining that Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe wasn't doing enough to protect him from the critisim of his rivals. Well one rival who has stayed above the fray and has been very diplomatic when talking about his fellow Democratic Party candidates is now entering Dean's crosshairs apparently.
The Arizona Republic has a story where some reporters by mistake were allowed to listen in on an internal Dean campaign conference call about the next strategy the Dean campaign should use. A quote from the article:
"Another staffer indicated that in a survey of voters Monday by telephone, people expressed concern that "this guy (Dean) is indecisive" and Bradley, a former Hall of Fame player in the National Basketball Association and a three-term senator from New Jersey, could help counter that.
"The Bradley message could be, like, (Dean) knew where he stood on the war, is still a Democrat, takes . . . positions, blah, blah, blah," the staffer said.
The next day, the speaker said, "surrogates" for Dean, both local and national, could "then hit Clark on the flip side of the argument: that he's indecisive, didn't know what party he's with, doesn't know his position on the war," she said.
The Clark campaign has decided to respond with the following:
Yesterday, the Dean campaign inadvertently revealed to reporters its secret strategy to discredit General Clark. The strategy was reported in today's Arizona Republic.
As the Republic reports, the Dean camp plans to use Bill Bradley's endorsement to counter the perception among New Hampshire voters - apparently evident in the Dean polling - that Governor Dean is "indecisive," and they plan to use both former Senator Bradley and other surrogates to attack General Clark.
Clark Campaign Communications Director Matt Bennett responded to this report:
"The Dean camp's secret back-room plotting to have Bill Bradley and others attack Wes Clark isn't a bit surprising. Governor Dean seems to like others to do his heavy lifting - just last week Howard Dean asked Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe to protect him from the criticisms of his rivals. The fundamental difference between Governor Dean and General Clark is that Howard Dean is a politician, and Wes Clark is a leader."
"Wes Clark has run a war, making life and death decisions every day. If the Dean Campaign wants to have a debate about decisiveness, we're ready."
Just a week ago, Howard Dean was complaining that Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe wasn't doing enough to protect him from the critisim of his rivals. Well one rival who has stayed above the fray and has been very diplomatic when talking about his fellow Democratic Party candidates is now entering Dean's crosshairs apparently.
The Arizona Republic has a story where some reporters by mistake were allowed to listen in on an internal Dean campaign conference call about the next strategy the Dean campaign should use. A quote from the article:
"Another staffer indicated that in a survey of voters Monday by telephone, people expressed concern that "this guy (Dean) is indecisive" and Bradley, a former Hall of Fame player in the National Basketball Association and a three-term senator from New Jersey, could help counter that.
"The Bradley message could be, like, (Dean) knew where he stood on the war, is still a Democrat, takes . . . positions, blah, blah, blah," the staffer said.
The next day, the speaker said, "surrogates" for Dean, both local and national, could "then hit Clark on the flip side of the argument: that he's indecisive, didn't know what party he's with, doesn't know his position on the war," she said.
The Clark campaign has decided to respond with the following:
Yesterday, the Dean campaign inadvertently revealed to reporters its secret strategy to discredit General Clark. The strategy was reported in today's Arizona Republic.
As the Republic reports, the Dean camp plans to use Bill Bradley's endorsement to counter the perception among New Hampshire voters - apparently evident in the Dean polling - that Governor Dean is "indecisive," and they plan to use both former Senator Bradley and other surrogates to attack General Clark.
Clark Campaign Communications Director Matt Bennett responded to this report:
"The Dean camp's secret back-room plotting to have Bill Bradley and others attack Wes Clark isn't a bit surprising. Governor Dean seems to like others to do his heavy lifting - just last week Howard Dean asked Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe to protect him from the criticisms of his rivals. The fundamental difference between Governor Dean and General Clark is that Howard Dean is a politician, and Wes Clark is a leader."
"Wes Clark has run a war, making life and death decisions every day. If the Dean Campaign wants to have a debate about decisiveness, we're ready."
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