as the 4th district turns

In this episode, we will go more into the chances of U.S. Rep. Tom Davis' (R-NoVA) DC-Utah House seat bill. ex-Sen. ex-VP candidate Jack Kemp and Mr. Davis believe the bill still has a chance:

"No one in our leadership has indicated to me that this is not possible," [] Davis [] said [] Friday. "The stars are aligned. The time is now."
...
"There remains a strong possibility of enacting the DC Voting Rights Act during the lame duck session of Congress," Kemp said. "Conversations I have had with House and Senate leadership about the bill have been positive and encouraging."

"No one [told] me [it's] not possible" and "strong possibility" are not exactly ringing endorsements of the bill's chances. That sounds like much less than the 50% that some pundits (like UVA's Larry Sabbato) have given the bill. When the media asked the Democrat most interested in the bill, this is what D.C.'s delegate told the Tribune:

Eleanor Holmes Norton[] says incoming speaker Nancy Pelosi has promised her continuing support of the bill if the GOP doesn't take up the measure next week. Pelosi is a co-sponsor of the legislation.
It's unclear, however, whether Utah will still be part of the legislation under a Democratic-controlled Congress.

So it sounds like D.C. could get its vote early in January and Utah might get nothing until 2012. But that's OK with the Tribune, whose headline reads "Utah voters' case pales in comparison with D.C.'s:"

While Utah has three U.S. House members and two senators, the district's nearly 600,000 residents have no vote in Congress, which, in addition to its other powers, controls the district's budget and laws.
...
"The people of Utah have expressed outrage over the loss of one congressional seat for the last six years," Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. testified before a congressional committee in September. "I share their outrage. I can't imagine what it must be like for American citizens to have no representation at all for over 200 years."

There is some interesting history about DC's attempts to get a vote that I didn't know about either

In 1978, Congress sent the states another constitutional amendment that would allow the district to have a House member, but only 16 of the required 38 states ratified the change, and it expired in 1985.
The district also called a Constitutional Convention in 1980, a state constitution was drafted for "New Columbia," and it was submitted to be part of the union. But it was all for naught. The amendment didn't pass.

And of course, almost all of us know why nothing has happened in terms of D.C. getting Congressional voting rights:

Mark David Richards is a political sociologist who did his doctoral dissertation on the history of the District of Columbia. He says for much of the time the district has been seeking full voting rights, the opposition derived, at least in part, from racial undertones. Blacks make up 62 percent of the district's population, according to the 2000 census.
But now, Richards says, some of the opposition to granting the district voting rights is pure politics - if the city gained a House member or senators, there's little doubt the Democrat-filled city would elect only those with donkeys on their campaign signs.

With Democrats in control of Congress, I don't know why they don't try the Davis bill or something else that gives DC a vote. Retrocession the District (save the National Mall and other Federal buildings) back to Maryland would work, but Maryland doesn't want to deal with the mess that Congress has made of DC. Why not just pass a bill to allow D.C. voters to vote in MD's senate race and give DC a vote in the House. Under the constitution, Congress can do whatever the hell it wants within the 10 miles square of the District (Art I, Sec. 8, cl. 17).

I will keep on this story dear reader until the Davis bill fails or another DC bill is brought up in the 110th Congress.

much politisan manuvering about nothing

Thomas Burr of the Trib starts his lede with this non-shocker: "Even as Utah state lawmakers prepare to head into special session to pass a four-seat congressional map in hopes of getting another House member, it's doubtful legislation dealing with the issue in Congress will make it to a vote next week."

Rep. Ben Ferry, R-Corinne, the one committee member who voted against Plan L, has proposed his own Plan M [PDF] because Plan L created a urban 2nd District. "Having a rural component in every district is very important," said Ferry, a Box Elder County stockman. "You try to have comprehensive seats . . . so representatives are aware of rural concerns."

Rep. Ferry, being aware of, caring about, and doing something about are three different things. If you jam in some rural voters into the 2nd on principle, it doesn't mean that Congressman or -woman will do anything for rural Utahns. So Plan M is dead on arrival right?

Sen. Mike Waddoups, R-Taylorsville, has said he also will propose another map at the special session because Plan L divides Taylorsville.
"We are open to any proposals," said Sen. Curt Bramble, a chairman of the 11-person Redistricting Committee. "But when you have a 10-1 vote coming out of committee - that is sending a pretty strong message."

That is saying no more than yes. Speaker Greg Curtis agrees most lawmakers are going to look to the committee, which labored over computer-generated maps, for guidance. "[Ferry] is going to have an uphill battle," Curtis said. "He's going to have to convince members of the committee why his map is better than the one they adopted." So OK that means this Plan M is for naught. But Waddups wants some changes But then again, so is the whole process:

A senior GOP aide told The Salt Lake Tribune on Thursday that it's "unlikely" the House would take up a bill that would give Utah a fourth congressional seat that likely would go to a Republican in order to balance a proposed seat for the District of Columbia, which doesn't now have a full-voting representative.
"There's simply too many Republicans who have problems with the bill to bring it up at this late of an hour in the session," the aide said.
Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, signaled similar concerns on Thursday. Asked if the bill had a chance at passing, Cannon said, "It is very dicey, I would say."

So I guess I have to applaud the legislature's committee for listening to that woman in Park City and including Park City with Salt Lake and its 'burbs. At the same time, the whole thing was sham partisan map. They are using 6 year old data, creating 3-safe GOP seats and one safe Democratic district. Except Jim could bust their whole scheme.

It will be interesting to see if Huntsman cannot only keep the legislature in line to pass Plan L but also convince the House and Senate in the US Congress to pass this in the Lame Duck. Personally, i think the chances are less than 50%.

More on plan L

So this bill is "bipartisan" according to the Tribune because the committee listened to people in Park City who complained about being lumped into rural Utah when they are a cosmopolitan city linked to Salt Lake City and Vale, CO than Mexican Hat, UT..."including a Park City woman who complained about being in the 'hellhole' of the 1st Congressional District. "

But this article does include a new tidbit of information from the past that might link to the future:

After the 2001 redistricting, Matheson contemplated suing the state after Republican lawmakers gerrymandered him into a district stretching from Salt Lake City to St. George. Wednesday, Matheson spokeswoman Alyson Heyrend declined to comment on the new map, calling it "extremely hypothetical."

The Deseret News points out the Utah Republican hypocrisy:

For a decade, GOP lawmakers have argued that there should not be a single U.S. House district in Salt Lake County — that all Utah congressmen should represent both urban and rural areas of the state. But under Plan L, Matheson's 2nd District would take in northern Salt Lake County, Park City and surrounding suburbs in Summit County and North Salt Lake and part of Woods Cross in Davis County.

Oh and by the way, you, Utah Taxpayers, paid for a likely charade

Finally, all the work and cost of paying for the committee's work and a special session may be for naught.
State officials are rushing to get a four-seat plan before Congress so that a lame-duck session next week can consider a special bill that would give Washington, D.C., a full-voting House seat (the current delegate can't vote on final passage of legislation) and give Utah a fourth seat.

The new map

In the end, the Legislature's special committee decided on a plan whose map was never released to the public...Plan L(PDF).

L looks somewhat similar to previous plans. The new 4th district will be Southwestern Utah (Tooele, Juab [save the Eastern jug end where everyone lives], Millard, Beaver, Iron, Washington Counties). However, the 4th also would include Southern Salt Lake County-- South Jordan, West Jordan, Cottonwood Heights, Talyorsville, Sandy, and parts of West Valley. The new 2nd will be like the 1990's 2nd (Northern Salt Lake County, with the Park City part of Summitt County, and a tiny sliver of Davis and Utah Counties [Woods Cross and Alta respectively]). The new 3rd will include Eastern Utah "centered" around Provo (Morgan, rest of Summitt, Daggett, Wasatch, Utah, Duchesne, Uintah, Carbon, rest of Juab, Sanpete, Emory, Grant, Piute, Wayne, Garfield, San Juan, and Kane Counties). The new 1st will be centered around Ogden (Box Elder, Cash, Weber, 99% of Davis, and Rich Counties).

"We've had a significant amount of public input," Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, committee co-chairman told the Tribune. "There's been a great deal of discussion about the public perception that this is a majority party whitewash. That we are simply trying to gerrymander Republican Party seats. Nothing could be further from the case."

Um I say that is complete Bull. No member of the public asked for protecting Matheson, not even Matheson. The number of people wanting a mix of urban and rural districts were solely Republican partisans. Why don't you ask the people living out in the rural areas if they want to fight for attention with Provo, Salt Lake County, or Davis/Weber Counties? Of course they never had a hearing in rural areas, the closest they got was in St. George, our fastest growing city.

clueless in washington

two idiot senators that think they will be president in two year squwalked today:

"When it comes to the field of Democratic Presidential hopefuls," Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) "has clearly decided that there is still a niche to be filled by someone like him," the New York Observer reports.

"While he thinks that Hillary Clinton can be President, he also notes that she is still in the midst of forming her Iraq policy. And as for John Edwards, John Kerry or Al Gore, well, they’ve already run."

Says Dodd: "I sort of have a unique position because I have experience, but I’m sort of a fresh face. I know that’s kind of silly. I’ve been in the Senate 25 years."

"Twenty years ago, I made a mistake. Twenty years ago, I learned a whole hell of a lot getting up off my knees."
-- Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), quoted by the Providence Journal, about the plagarism of a speech during his 1988 presidential campaign.

Morons.

Bush's other other foreign policy failure

That is, not Iraq, not Afghanistan, but Russia. Bush hired a "Russian expert" for his National Security Adviser (Stanford Provost Condi Rice). He met President Putin and looked into his soul and discovered that he was a "good man," his adjective that means "someone who agrees with me" essentially.

Prior to 9/11, Bush was pushing for missile defense, and demanding that Russia join them in withdrawing the conflicting portion of the ABM treaty. Condi was scheduled to give a speech on September 11, 2001 about Rouge states (aka Iraq, Iran, and North Korea) and the need to protect ourselves from such threats (via missile defense). Obviously, she never got her chance.

While the US and its friends were having their adventure in Iraq, and ignoring Afghanistan, Russia was falling deeper and deeper into a thuggish dictatorship. Those who have the most connections to the Kremlin via bribes or whatever get to have the key businesses and all political and business transactions take place with force always in the background. Corruption is unstoppable. Those who try are beaten or killed, or threatened or acid is poured on their faces.

Those who try to buck the will of the Russian government/mob are killed or attempted to be killed. There is no freedom of press, no rule of law, no real democracy.

Clearly, Mr. Bush, Vladimir Putin is not a "good man" unless he really is someone whose methods and policies you agree with and aspire to.

Romney's failure as governor

The Washington Post's Sunday paper reviews Romney's 4-year stint as governor of Massachusetts and generously calls it a "mixed" record. It reality, it was an utter failure. As a legislative aide from 2003-04 in the Massachusetts State House, I speak from experience.

Here are a list of his duds:

• raising taxes-- by "closing what he called 'loopholes' in the corporate tax code...along with higher local property taxes..." and hiked fees for essential state services.


• "Romney failed to develop the warm personal relationships with Democratic leaders that Weld had enjoyed with some of their predecessors. The Democrats had no compunction about rejecting Romney's initiatives, including his push to reduce the state's top income tax rate." He had no clout on Beacon Hill, the Democratic legislature overrode daily and did whatever they wanted.


• "Romney mounted a major effort...in his midterm election in 2004. He campaigned and financed races in dozens of districts, spending $3 million, and when the returns came in, Republicans had two fewer seats than before." And don't forget his handpicked successor was creamed by Deval Patrick who campaigned against the Romney legacy


• "left the state politically polarized" on key issues of Abortion, Death Penalty, Gay Marriage, Stem Cell Research, etc. He governed like he was governor of a Southern Red State rather that a Northeastern Blue State.


• "His plan for health care...was tweaked and substantially expanded by the legislature, and in the final analysis, the negotiations that led to success were managed more by the Democratic leaders of the House and Senate than by the governor."

He never would have been famous to those the-Church-should-be-the-State GOPers had he not been governor when the SJC ruled on Goodridge so he could be against it. He was a loser from day one in office. The whole governorship was a big PR spin, like his "cleanup" of SLC's Olympics. Everyone but him worked their butt off to make it a great games. And he takes all the credit?

I dream of Romney being the Presidential nominee. Too bad it won't happen. He will get crushed in the SBC belt.

much to do about nothing

Another story about Utah's "congressionally mandated" reredistricting, another slow news day burial.

According to the Tribune"The day after the hearings, the committee expects to select a final map to be debated by the full Legislature during a special session Dec. 1."

Now the G proposal will be presented to the public after all, because get this, Utah Democrats think that the public should have input on the map process. What a riot. Utah Democrats also think claims that rural-urban mixed districts are better should be vetted by Utahns; crazy huh?

Meanwhile, Matheson is calling for an independant commission to draft these maps rather than a hyper-partisan legislature. Enid replies with a not so veiled threat: "Jim Matheson's never going to get a better district than he is going to get under these circumstances," said the acting Utah GOP party chairwoman.

Sources close to Matheson tell this blogger that Jim, like Sen. Bennett, doubt that the Davis bill will pass before the lame duck expires. So I may have been front-paged on MyDD for nothing. Oh well, them's the brakes.

I hope everyone is enjoying their Thanksgiving weekend. And come home safe.

plan G from outer space

As expected, the committee assigned with the task of drawing a 4-seat map released those maps when they were sure no one was looking--the day before Thanksgiving.

(Graphic credit: Salt Lake Tribune for more detail, click on this PDF by the paper)

All four plans share common elements. Sandy, parts of West Jordan, and most of Southern Salt Lake County not be part of the new 2nd district. Proposals I and J include Park City into the 2nd district. Davis and Weber Counties remain the "heart" of the redrawn 1st, although Proposal A gives the new 2nd district a tiny piece of Bountiful. All but Proposal G place Southern Salt Lake County in the new 4th District, and even then G places half in the new 4th and half in the new 3rd.

So which map would be the best for Democrats? Proposals A and G would allow Jim Matheson to run in the new 4th district and allow a Peter Carroon-type Democrat to run in the new 2nd district. Proposals I and J would be more difficult for Jim to run in their 4ths because of the inclusion of Washington County (St. George). Similarly, Jim would have a tough time running in their new 3rds because the parts of Salt Lake County, along with Carbon and San Juan (Moab) Counties would some how have to overcome Utah County (Provo). Thus, if I or J are adopted, I would expect Jim to stay in the 2nd district. But if A or G passed, I would press Jim to run in the new 4th and find a suitable Democratic candidate for the new 2nd.

Here are the redistricting hearing times and locations. If you live nearby, please attend. (Graphic credit: Deseret News)

So what are the chances of each proposal? The Deseret News gives us the scoop:

Senate Republicans, however, have insisted that the 2001 proposal known as "Plan A" continue to be considered. The committee's other two proposals, "Plan I" and "Plan J," were put together behind closed doors during a break in Tuesday's meeting.
...
The committee rejected a proposal by the minority Democrats, "Plan G," that would have created two largely urban districts from most of Salt Lake and Utah counties and two largely rural districts from the rest of the state.
"This really is a snapshot of what the state is," said Senate Minority Whip Gene Davis, D-Salt Lake. But Republicans disagreed, arguing that the state is better served when all members of Congress represent rural constituents.

Rep. Jackie Biskupski, D-Salt Lake City, stormed out of a meeting after G lost according to the Salt Lake Tribune "They always say they want input from the Democrats. Why have Democrats on the committee if you are going to ignore what we have to say?" "The governor said this was going to be a fair and nonpartisan process or he would use his veto," Biskupski said. ''He can't pretend this was nonpartisan.''

"If you are going to take three plans on the road for public hearings that are the same and not include the option from the minority party, it's obviously a partisan process," Biskupski said. Newsflash! Redistricting is a partisan political process, News at 10. Even though no political affiliation data was inputed into the mapping program, everyone on that committee knows where Democrats do well, where Jim's base of support is, and where Republicans do well. Let's not kid ourselves with this "non-partisan process" crap.

The interesting thing will be if Biskupski is correct and Huntsman indeed vetoes ones of these other plans for being overtly partisan.

Utah Republicans carve up map like Turkey

Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday. I have been writing a paper for a class and my topic is the Allen-Webb senate race. Boy, did Allen have some great quotes. "For folks to think I would know what sorts of genus of monkeys are in eastern Asia ascribe a lot more intelligence to me than I actually have."--August 17. Now to the Turkey meat, thanks to the Salt Lake Tribune:

"With such a large population concentrated in Salt Lake County, it is very difficult to do it in two parts," [State Rep. Dave]Clark said. "Every possible division into four districts will be considered."

That is the biggest hint I can think of that the legislature doesn't like Huntsman's proposed map. And here was Huntsman's retort:

"We are allowing the Legislature to do its work," said Huntsman spokesman Mike Mower. "But the governor will have the final say. Our goal is to make sure it is fair."

The Deseret News provides a helpful graphic showing when open hearings will be held for this ultra-important process involving democracy

That's right, when no one will be able to attend. I am sure this is the bare minimum required under open meetings laws. So if they do make a map that both a GOP legislature and a GOP governor like, what happens next? The Deseret News explains:

"It would be a clean slate," said Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, the co-chairman of a special legislative redistricting committee. "We'd have to elect four new congressional representatives."
Just how that election would be structured, though, remains to be seen. Bramble, the incoming Senate majority leader, said lawmakers would likely wait until the 2007 Legislature meets in January to figure out the special election process.
But Sen. Chris Buttars, R-West Jordan, said he wanted to see candidates go through the regular nominating process at political party conventions. Committee members were told, however, that Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. could speed up that process.

Meanwhile, leaders in both parties are pouring over 6 year old census data (which the state argued was inaccurate to begin with to the Supreme Court) to draw up their own fantasy maps. With a special election next year, Salt Lake City will have a "non-partisan" mayoral race and two to three Congresscritters to vote on. It seems like it won't be such an "off year" after all.

more like this please

The the Salt Lake Tribune has a fantastic headline, and I want to reward good behavior: "Reid proof that good Mormons can also be Democrats"

Many folks think Democrat and Mormons don't belong in the same sentence, except with "hate" or "aren't" in between. Well, Majority Leader Harry Reid seeks to change all that, but first he has to overcome the culture of the church members themselves.

Despite the fact that Reid held weekly Family Home Evenings and sent three sons on two-year missions for the church, and all five of his children were married in LDS temples, some members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints question his faith because of his politics.

What more can the guy do? He is pro-life, but votes for against anti-choice judges out of party loyalty. He drinks neither alcohol, coffee, tea, or soda. The Democratic Party has lots of religious diversity and religiosity.

Same for Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who noted that Reid is a Mormon, Majority Whip-elect Richard Durbin is a Catholic and Charles Schumer, head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, is Jewish.

Abortion and gay rights are the big two 'values' issues that tend to keep Latter-Day Saints opposed to the Democratic Party. But the party is home to many pro-lifers, like Senator-Elect Bob Casey, and many pro-traditional marriage members too, like Tennessee's U.S. Rep. Lincoln Davis. True, these folks are in the minority in the party and that the presidential candidates must be pro-choice and pro-gay rights to be the nominee, but it doesn't mean these folks can't be proud Democrats in the State House, the Governor's Mansions, the House and the Senate. The reverse can't be said for Republicans who are much more homogenized.

What unites Democrats is caring for people: raising the minimum wage, supporting the right to organize labor, improving health care, reducing taxes on the poor and middle class, caring for the elderly, equal rights for racial/ethnic minorities, and so on.

What unites Republicans is lower taxes. It used to be smaller government, but then congressional Bush Republicans decided to pork their way into "permanent power." I guess it is still smaller government social programs, but it also includes eliminating premarital sex, no gay sex, no gay marriage, no division between church and state, and no social welfare for the poor, the elderly, the young.

Since there are 3 Casey's for every one Rudy G's, and Democrats love to squabble between themselves, I say welcome to my LDS brethern who are tired of giving their social services away to tax cuts for the rich, who are tired of politicians professing their 'faith' in order to humor you for votes but never deliver, who talk about gay marriage and abortion all day long, but never address the root cause of abortion (poverty, lack of sex education, lack of contraception, rape, incest, abuse, misfortune).

fairly benign redistricting, and other oxymorons

More on the Utah redistricting plans from the Deseret News this morning(for a brief synopsis read my dairy on MyDD):

Instead of Huntsman's preliminary idea, committee leaders said, the state's most populous county may be divided among three of the four districts. A redrawn 2nd District could include Summit, Daggett and Morgan counties as well as Salt Lake City, the city's Rose Park and other parts of Salt Lake County.
"These are not set in stone. They're meant to be the starting point for discussion," said Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, co-chairman of the redistricting committee. "We've come up with something that looks fairly benign."
But even as Bramble was drawing his new map, House Speaker Greg Curtis, R-Sandy, warned that any plan that split the county into parts of three districts would only come if Salt Lake County was the "population center of at least two of the districts."

Translation: get Matheson out of my Sandy district, I nearly lost my election to him. Here is the committee, tell me with a straight face this won't be a hyper-partisan 'screw Matheson again' map.

Jeremy Roberts, a Salt Lake County GOP activist, wants a GOP party resolution that says that "only states should have voting representation in the U.S. House and Senate — and so it is unconstitutional to let the District of Columbia have a House seat." Ergo, one for Utah, none for D.C. I am sure it has nothing to do with the white, Republican nature of Utah and the Black, Republican nature of D.C....nothing at all.

Here are some more hints about where the committee is thinking of going:

Only about half of strongly Democratic Salt Lake City is in the existing 2nd District.
As for the rest of Salt Lake County, Bramble said some westside portions should go to a redrawn 3rd District along with a sliver of Tooele County. And the rest of Salt Lake County — including Sandy — could be part of a new 4th District "centered" in St. George.
...
Curtis, who went through the bruising redistricting in 2001, has said that the 2nd District — now held by Utah's only Democratic member of Congress, Rep. Jim Matheson — must be a mostly Democratic seat. Otherwise, Democrats in Congress will not go along with the proposed deal that would give the District of Columbia one voting House seat and give Utah another House seat."

Again, translation for Speaker Curtis: Matheson is unbeatable, so let's give him a safer House seat, so he won't take out other Republicans.

Matheson in recent elections has won more than 60 percent of the vote in this part of his huge geographic district, which also takes in eastern and southern Utah. In the 2006 election, Matheson got more than 70 percent of the Salt Lake County vote. Matheson also has a bit of northeastern Utah County, where he has been beaten by his GOP opponent.

Matheson is already safe, as his victory in November proved. He will never be seriously challenged again unless there is another 2002 like year, but that was the magic combination of a very GOP year and redistricting where Jim had 33% new constituents who didn't know him. He got crushed in Washington County and still eked out a win. Now, he places respectably in Washington County, thanks to all his hard work getting federal money for the St. George airport and other items.

friday roundup

• Joe Cannon is leaving the post of Utah Republican Party chair, making current Vice Chair Enid Greene chair until the next party elections. A failed 2004 Lt. Governor candidate, a failed Congresswoman, and now UT Republican Party chairwoman. The party has a corrupt, but at least competent person at the helm now. However, I am sure she won't last. Utah Republicans have a habit of kicking out women from leadership positions in their party, just ask Governor Walker.


• An opponent to Joe Lieberman (CFL-CT), called the Secretary of State of Connecticut and found out that even Joe wasn't a member of his own "Connecticut for Lieberman" party, so he joined, made himself party chairman, and created the party rules. Here are the highlights (courtesy of My Left Nutmeg):
  

  a. If you run under Connecticut for Lieberman, you must actually join our party.
  b. The party will nominate people for office who have the last name of Lieberman and/or who are critics and opponents of Senator Lieberman.
  c. If any CFL candidate loses our party's nomination in a primary, that candidate must bolt our party, form a new party and work to defeat our party endorsed candidate.
  d. We in the CFL intend to run the same candidate for three different jobs at the same time, ie. House, Senate and Governor.

  
  The brilliant idea is to 1) hold Lieberman accountable, 2) expose "Connecticut for Lieberman" as a sham party, 3) lock out Lieberman from both CFL and Democratic party, making it impossible to Joe to run for reelection in 2012, unless he creates another fake party. The CT legislature will probably change the election laws to prevent sore losers from creating their own parties and running again against their primary opponents, either by changing the date of party formation to before party primaries (currently it is the day after) or simply not allowing a losing candidate to run again.


• SLC mayoral race in 2007 is wide open. Ten candidates have filed for this "non-partisan" election. The winner will most likely be a Democrat, but that hasn't stopped Republicans from trying. Democrats in the minority in the state and county legislature have opted for a chance in the greener pastures of the old city and county building. I don't have a dog in this fight, but I may decide whom I like after learning more about what the candidates propose to do, rather than who they are. Kirk Jowers, Hinckley Institute of Politics told KSL, "There is a lot of pent up excitement to run for office. It's the same thing you'd find if Hatch or Bennett decide to hang it up. There's a lot of people who have been waiting for this moment."

Zombie 4th seat

It won't die...thanks to ultra-powerful Gov. Huntsman. By December 4th, the bill should be passed out of the legislature and used as a bargaining chip for the DC-Utah bill still pending in the lame duck Congress.

"We've been assured by the governor that this will be a fair process with a fair result or he will veto it," said state House Minority Leader Ralph Becker, D-Salt Lake. He said minority Democrats will agree to a special session.

Not that Becker has much choice in the matter...I don't think Dems even have the power to block a quorum.

Gov. Huntsman's map was basically fair: a safe Democratic seat in exchange for 3 GOP safe (save Matheson) seats. But the state legislature isn't going to play nice. Here is the old map the legislature passed in 2001:

"It's open. We're not pushing any particular map," said Senate President John Valentine.
...
"We've been committed all along to making certain at the end of the day that a fair map is adopted," said Huntsman spokesman Mike Mower.

Watch the sparks fly.

wait for 2008

I know the press would much rather be talking up a potential Hillary-McCain 2008 race...but 2006 races aren't over yet. There are 7 House seat that are still undecided, and amazingly enough no Congressional Democrats lost this cycle. Currently 30 seats have been picked up, but any or all of these 7 could go blue.

In Utah, the story is the same: many Salt Lake County races are still close to call, including State House Speaker Greg Curtis'. The GOP believe that Jim Matheson's walking of Curtis' district--combined with his prominant position on a stadium Real Salt Lake--lead to his near or actual loss.

Right now, Speaker Curtis is up on 46 votes. "There also are 600 paper ballots - requested by voters leery of the new electronic machines - that have yet to be tabulated, explained Jason Yocom, chief deputy clerk." If you were wondering if Jason Yocom was related to outgoing D.A. Dave Yocum, you were right, Jason is his son.

Moreover, Utah Democrats have another chance in the Salt Lake County Auditor were the Democratic candidate is behind 344 votes. For that race, Jason Yocum has a "stack of provisionals had passed 7,700 along with more than 3,000 absentees." Those are just the prominent races.

There are actually 4 other state house races that are too close to call. Here are the closest of the close.

* HOUSE 22: Deena Ely, R, leads Carl Duckworth, D (i), by 25 votes.
* HOUSE 29: Janice Fisher, D (i), leads Phillip Conder, R, by 75 votes.
* HOUSE 36: Phil Riesen, D, leads Susan Lawrence, R (i), by 103 votes.
* HOUSE 45: Mark Walker, R (i), leads Laura Black, D, by 32 votes.
* HOUSE 49: Greg Curtis, R (i), leads Jay Seegmiller, D, by 46 votes.
* SALT LAKE COUNTY AUDITOR: Sean Thomas, R (i), leads Jeff Hatch, D, by 344 votes.
* JORDAN SCHOOL BOARD NO. 6: Tracy Cowdell leads Lynette Phillips (i), by 27 votes.

Bush's final days and Utah's 4th

Mr. Lame Duck thinks he can push John Bolton (an utter failure at the UN, despite what a commenter thinks), Daddy's CIA chief for Def. Sec. and a 4th Seat for Utah in exchange for D.C. through in the next couple weeks. Forget about it.

Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah — who remains in U.S. Senate leadership until Dec. 31 — warns there is little likelihood that the compromise plan will make it through the lame-duck congressional session.

Governor Huntsman is worried of those new Democrats in Congress:

"They could move forward unilaterally and take care of voting rights in Washington, without any kind of commensurate increase in representation for Utah," the Republican governor said. He called that prospect a "worst-case scenario."
"We have an open window. And it's going to close very quickly," Huntsman said.

So Huntsman is turning up the heat on the Utah legislature, and they aren't playing ball

"We were being asked by Congress to have an up-or-down vote on a map drawn in the back room," Senate President John Valentine said Tuesday. "We're just not going to do that. . . . We really felt like it was important to have the process include public participation. We were not willing to just play Whac-a-Mole with the Congress."
Instead, state legislators may hold public hearings on the proposed map and then vote on it by Dec. 4 as a way to advance the tandem Utah/D.C. plan.
...
At least one member of the statehouse circulated a letter Tuesday calling the proposal the "fourth seat slippery slide," slamming the idea as one that would eventually hurt Utah and boost Democrats.
"In return for a Western, Republican Utah seat for possibly four years [until we get it legitimately in 2012] we give Washington, D.C., and the Eastern Democrats an extra seat forever," said outgoing Rep. David Cox, R-Lehi. "That doesn't seem like a fair trade."

Dang! A State Representative who is a Republican is either reading my blog, or came to the same conclusion independently (given my traffic, I will opt for number 2). Moreover, Democrats would lock up the 2nd district, Matheson or no Matheson, and free up Jim to run in the new 4th or the new 3rd. My dream is that he takes out Chris Cannon and we get a progressive Democrat to represent the new Second. And then when Hatch or Bennett dies, he wins the open Senate seat.

Meanwhile, the DC democrats are dumb enough to think this will hurt Matheson. Jim can win in almost any district in the state now fairly easily. His ads and person are known statewide and is approval ratings are second only to the nation's most popular governor. What is Matheson's official line?

Matheson, who favors a nonpartisan redistricting commission to make any district changes, says he will vote for any bill that gives Utah a fourth seat now, regardless of how the Legislature's redistricting may affect him personally.

Utah over his political career, principle over personal. That is why Jim won with the biggest margin of all the Congressional races this year.

abstinance makes the heart grow fonder

Sorry for the lack of posting of late. I don't really have much of an excuse, other than I didn't feel the need to comment on anything in particular because the commentary from the big Kahunas was vastly superior to what I would have written (and more often with better spelling and grammar, sorry).

I am excited about the incoming Congress and their boldness already to stop Bush from legalizing his warrantless eavesdropping on international and domestic calls, and their reluctance to allow Mr. Gates to become Defense Secretary without a meaningful hearing (meaning, after the lame duck session).

However, I am saddened by my own personal job situation where there is little certainty and not much I can do but wait and pass the Bar. I do love Utah and Salt Lake County, but if a job prospect opens up in the Washington, D.C. area, I will return to our Nation's Capitol. That year I spent there was some of the most fun I had, despite living in a tiny studio with a 45 minute Metro commute and a slow paced job. Too bad many of my D.C. friends from then have moved on to other cities and jobs. But now my in-laws live only two hours away from D.C. and I am excited to be back in national politics in person rather than just over the internet.

If it weren't for D.C., I would have never been able to help launch the DraftWesleyClark.com part of the Clark movement. If it weren't for blogs and Yahoo! groups, I would have never met Matt Stoller and Stirling Newberry when I moved to Boston.

As much as I love pontificating on the internet and meeting my internet idols, I long use my legal education towards domestic and international policy and politics. Wesley Clark is going to decide whether to run again by January, and if he says yes, I will be there again, where ever I am. A Clark/Warner or Clark/Obama ticket would be excellent and help Democrats take swingable Southern states like Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana. Evan Bayh is a nice man, but he will never be nominated President and as VP would not help carry Indiana. Plus, Clark, Warner, and Obama are exciting because they are not only electable, but principled and charasmatic, and intelligent but not Al Gore 2000/John Kerry 2004 condescending intelligent.

Utah Democrats make strides in 2006

Despite having about the worst night of any state party (although Idaho Democrats must be sad that Bill Sali got elected rather than their Larry Grant), Utah Democrats did have a ray of hope for the future: early voting.

Check out this graphic by the Salt Lake Tribune:

That's right, Utah Democrats kicked butt in SLCo. early voting.
" 'The Democratic Party clearly outstrategized or outworked us on that early voting,' said House Speaker Greg Curtis.
His Democratic opponent, Jay Seegmiller, enjoyed a 60 percent to 40 percent advantage when the early voting." In the end, Curtis hung on to win by 64 votes.
" Out of 55 congressional, legislative or county races, Democrats held the early voting lead in all but 10, and in five of those races Democrats did not field a candidate. Out of those 45 races where Democrats held an early voting lead, they ended up losing 17. "

Well that is something to hope for. Democrats will always outwork Republicans in Utah...they have to in order to have any hope. Republicans just have to plaster the word "Republican" and or put an elephant on every thing to get ahead.

last ditch "bipartisanship"

Many bloggers have noted how Bush's first "bipartisan" effort was an attempt to ram through Gates and John Bolton and retroactive authorization of wiretapping that is currently illegal under FISA. However, another little noticed Bush effort before he turns into a pumpkin on January 20th, Bush wants to push the bill that would give Utah a 4th seat.

Of course, he pretended he never heard of the bill, but the White House spokeswoman said otherwise.

While in theory the bill would be politically neutral, a newly Democratic House could allow D.C. to vote without adding a seat for Utah.

Bush wants to go back to his Texas model, but the Democrats in the Texas legislature were like the Democrats in the Utah legislature: very conservative and in the minority. The trouble is, while there will be a big Blue Dog block in the House, the liberals will be in charge and opt for popular populist bills first, regardless of what Bush wants.

Get your popcorn ready for January, it will be interesting to see the sparks fly.

the morning after

Needless to say I am very happy. My predictions were fairly accurate, I forgot about TX KS FL AZ and CA...I got too optimistic about CT and believed the hype, but I hope Lieberman learned his lesson from August and won't stray too much from the party line.

Sen. Bob Bennett says he thinks Rumsfeld will resign before the next congress takes over. I am fairly confident that Democrats' leads in VA and MT will hold up under possible recounts. What a night, what a sweep! The biggest surprise to me was Carol Shea-Porter, who had maybe a $100,000 and won her more Republican NH district. She will now have lots of "friends" in the Senate and statehouses. What an incredible grassroots candidate, very impressive. I am sad that Eric Massa looks to have lost in NY-29, but it is close and he is not yet conceding...good for him.


Here in Utah, it looks like the wave never breached the Wasatch mountains. Judge Lewis is probably gone. It looks like Miller won the DA's race (and might have done something ethically and legally questionable). Winder is the new Sheriff in town and Kennard graciously invited him to the high up meeting today.

I am pretty tired, but this makes up my temporary depression after the results of 2000, 2002, and 2004 to some degree. I really need a new hobby; I get too sucked in.