Saturday, October 30, 2004

The Saturday Night Live Effect

Do you think last year, let alone 2 or 3 years ago, they could have made fun of an Osama bin Laden terror tape from Al Jazeera? They used the chance to make fun of Bush and Kerry saying both suck and especially Teresa Heinz Kerry (as well as Ashlee Simpson, who was a joke before she was caught lip synching last week).

Another thing to watch is to see how the crowd reacts to Eminem's "Mosh," which I am sure he will perform tonight.

Remember in 2000, when Al Gore's terrible debate performance, as criticized by SNL, actually affected Gore's later performances? Now, no one cares what they think, except scandals like the F-list Ashlee Simpson.

In 2004, the culture thermometer is Jon Stewart's Daily Show. Times sure have changed for the better.

Friday, October 29, 2004

I smell a rat

After a week or so of bad news for the President, all of a sudden Osama Bin Laden shows up on Al Jazeera and pokes fun at Bush.

"It never occurred to us that the commander in chief of the country (Bush) would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face those horrors alone ... because he thought listening to a child discussing her goats was more important," bin Laden said, referring to Bush's visit to a FL elementary school when the attacks occurred.

Bin Laden told Americans: "Your security is not in the hands of (Democratic candidate John) Kerry or (President George W.) Bush or al-Qaida. Your security is in your own hands ...."

This is a little too convenient, don't you think? Just yesterday a Saint Paul TV station was airing it video from April 13, 2003 showing that al Qaqaa munitions site, munitions, IAEA seals, the works. The Pentagon tried to squash the story by using an ambiguous photo proved Saddam had moved the munitions prior to the war, but it flopped when Former Bush WMD inspector David Kay got on CNN and authenticated the local station’s story/video.

Yesterday, bloggers proved that a Bush TV Ad Photoshopped troops into the picture, and the campaign had to take it down and fix it, much to their embarrassment.

Just a couple days ago, Drudge got a phony looking terrorist video with a masked guy speaking in English with an American accent. ABC refuses to play it, saying Bush people tried to pressure them to put it on (Fox News takes the bait). Here’s Drudge’s spin.

Bush couldn’t even catch a break with a campaign event in New Hampshire today. Drudge Reports “Event workers had been told to fire off confetti pods when Bush said, 'God Bless'... his normal closing line. But 5 minutes before the end of his speech, Bush offered a ‘God Bless’ to Arlene Howard, mother of George Howard a Port Authority of New York/New Jersey Police Officer killed in the World Trade Center... BLAM!!!!! Everyone first ducked -- hard -- then looked up to see confetti falling. Bush looked momentarily stunned, then plain [sic] unhappy, then just went on with his speech as the confetti rained to the floor of the Verizon Wireless Arena.”

I hate to put on my Tin Hat, but the whole thing really looks like Rove has gotten so desperate that they brought out Bin Laden. Even Theresa Heinz at one point said she thought Bush would do an “October Surprise” and suddenly capture Bin Laden. John Kerry told the media he didn’t agree with her, and she stopped saying it, but liberals still believe it on some level. Now you see why.

On the other hand, I think this can hurt Bush. It reminds people that he wanted Osama “Dead or Alive” about 2 years ago, and he still doesn’t have him (well, he is Alive I guess). It also reminds people of the lie that Bush uttered during the last debate, denying that he had said in March “I don't know where he is.[PAUSE] I'll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him.” Now if he suddenly acts concerned about Bin Laden and how he is going to undermine the elections, he looks hypocritical.

Plus, the whole, “the terrorists want you to vote for Kerry” argument is just so partisan and laughable on its face that I don’t know what to say. OK, how about, if we get into worrying about which way the terrorists want us to vote, the terrorists have won (because they are thereby influencing the election). Nader and bin Laden support the same things (immediate US troop withdrawal from Iraq), yet no self-respecting Bush hack one will say bin Laden “wants” Nader.

To set the record straight I got suspicious when Clinton started bombing Iraq during the height of the Lewinsky matter in 12/1998-1/1999. At the very least I thought, this has the appearance of impropriety. Those bombing raids might have been the ones that ultimately destroyed Saddam’s Weapons of Mass Destruction that Bush hunted years for, we will never know.

Kerry for his part, said this:
In response to this tape from Osama bin Laden, let me make it clear, crystal clear. As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists. They are barbarians. And I will stop at absolutely nothing to hunt down, capture or kill the terrorists wherever they are, whatever it takes. Period.
Reading the entire bin Laden statement, it seems like UBL is actually quasi apologizing to Americans, or at least rationalizing his mass murder of nearly 3,000 people in a single day. He tried to equate 9/11 with the deaths of Iraqi civilians during and after the war. The thing is Americans weren’t trying to kill these people, whereas bin Laden does. That is the difference between collateral damage/civilian casualties and terrorism. Terrorism’s goal is to kill innocent people to scare people in power to change their ways. But you knew that already.

My point is this: the whole tone of the speech seems totally different from others that he has given. Most of his other ones were angry and triumphant, quoting the Koran etc. This message was aimed directly at the US and not to the greater Arab world, unlike all of his previous speeches. Normally, he would go on tape to get more people angry at America and thereby gin up recruitment. The whole thing strikes me as very odd to say the least.

Puff Daddy in Rural TX

In the 10 days since Welch Flippin "decided to stop dialysis and was slowly succumbing to kidney failure, something was on his mind." He wanted to vote. So Perry Flippin "asked if he could take a ballot home to his ailing father, but the clerk offered to make a house call."

Perry Flippin "recounted his father's last moments in a column": "The clerk left me holding the ballot in front of Dad. He made no sense of the columns, boxes or names. I showed him the Republicans and Democrats. Nothing. 'You like Kerry and Edwards?' I asked. 'Naw,' he replied wearily. 'Bush and Cheney?' 'Naw.' 'Do you like Charlie Stenholm?' 'Yeah.' Thirty-three hours later, the hearse arrived. Welch Flippin's last conscious act was casting his vote"

Give whole new meaning to the phrase "Vote or Die" doesn't it? May his soul rest in peace, knowing that Charlie Stenholm will win, just barely.

Ivory on the ballot for good

So I guess I was wrong. The all (but one) Republican appointed Utah Supreme Court decided [look below) that Workman's doctor's note "substanially complies" with the statute, so I guess Beehive was right. I assumed since the justices kept alluding to the fact that the statute allowed for a "wink and a nod" type of letter where the Doctor just says what he is told to say and there is no verification of whether Workman is truely disabled. The Salt Lake Tribune reported that "The order did not say if the justices were split, but a court spokeswoman said it reflected a 'majority' opinion."

As a Republican on the ballot, he [Ivory] will get all the straight-GOP votes cast after the high court decision. Four years ago, more than 50,000 people voted straight Republican.

Now I doubt Carroon will win. After all he raised a total of $300k for the whole year, while Ivory has spent $300k in the last two to three weeks, and he is Republican.

Carroon put on a good face saying he looked forward to the contest, while Merrill Cook spoke his mind:

"Ivory would be much better off staying as a write-in than being on a dishonest ballot," said Cook, a former two-term GOP congressman.

Utah Supreme Court order putting Ivory on the ballot

The order of the 3rd District Court in this matter is reversed. We hold that the certification of disability provided by Doctor [Philip] Roberts substantially complies with the minimal requirements of the Utah Election Code at Section 20A-1-501(1)(b)(ii). Because the issue was not before us, we express no opinion as to wether or not Mayor [Nancy] Workman is, in fact, disabled.

Given the extraordinary nature of this action, and the extreme time constraints on both the trial court and this court, as well as on the public officials charged with preparation of the ballots for next Tuesday's election, this order is issued without further elaboration. However, an opinion will follow in due course to explain our action for the guidance of election officials, candidates and other interested parties.

Signed by Justice Michael Wilkins

Thursday, October 28, 2004

The Caging list (a Democratic spoof-site) has been getting emails from idiot GOPers who have the wrong email adress for their friends at the actual campaign- .Com . The .Org webmasters finally decided to post all the emails they have been getting and this is probabbly how the BBC got a hold of the "caging list" story. Now you too get to see the actual e-mail and excel file, which I uploaded onto my ISP. I decieded to copy the important part rather than make you scroll through all their emails like I did, although it is fun to snoop. Personally I don't feel as bad about putting the names of all these people on the caging list or people in the email because the damage has already been done by sites that get more traffic than me. Without futher ado, here it is
>From: Kelly Porter []
> To: Lindy Landreaux - Political []; Miriam Moore - Research/Communications []; Victoria Newton - Research/Communications []; Tim Griffin - Research/Communications []; Shawn Reinschmiedt - Research/Communications []; []; Stephen Shiver []; []
> Sent: Thu Aug 26 18:12:49 2004
> Subject: caging
> Total as of today is 1834.
> Kelly
> ATTACHMENT: Caging-1.xls

Courtesy of as referred by BOPNews

PS Watch Eminem's "Riot"

The "Magic" of Tax Cuts

I just finished watching a PBS debate for the second congressional district. Each candidate had their moments, but Jim had a lot more of them.

One of my favorites was when John Swallow said, in answer to a question about how are we going to pay for all these tax cuts, "I believe in the magic of tax cuts." And talked about the bogus supply-side theory that if you lower taxes you somehow increase revenue. Jim Matheson responded by pointing out that Reagan, who believed in this theory (and Bush but didn't say it of course) actually exploded the countries debt and it didn't help revenues. Jim said it really must be magic, because you are in make believe land. He said if you really believe lowering taxes will raise revenues, why don't we just get rid of taxes all together and make infinate revenues. Swallow retorted that that was ridiculous and that he never advocated that. But on some level, that is what supply-sider arguments ulitmately end.

Every chance Swallow got to mention John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, Dick Gephardt, Mike Leavitt, and George Bush he did. Basically, his argument was because I am Republican and Matheson is a Democrat, I can better serve the district than he can. Why would the GOP listen to Bush's Butt-boy? I can see why the Democrats in congress would do all they could to help out Jim because they are worried he is going to lose all the time and they need him to get a majority.

Remember my post about all the GOP tactics to suppress the vote? Here's another example, found in Wisconsin by some GOTV folks for the Sierra Club (as shown on Kos):

It really is sad that they are afriad of black voters so much that they have to do this. It just makes them look racist. If they really wanted to do better with voters, the GOP should make efforts to reach out to blacks on issues of faith, gun violence, crime, education in urban schools etc. They tried with NCLB and Bush's faith based iniatives, but the former is underfunded and pissing off people in rich and poor schools, and the latter never made it through congress for want of effort on Bush's part. On the crime issue, they cut funding for the COPS program. The GOP is too beholdant to the NRA to do anything serious about gun crimes, like creating a registry of balistic fingerprints, so the police will know who's gun did the shooting, and won't harrass lawful gun owners who have the same type of gun. I think that protects the second amendment and helps our police do their job. We have databases of human fingerprints, why not a database of a gun's fingerprint on a bullet?

It depends on what the meaning of "disabled" is

I just finished watching the Utah Supreme Court listen to oral arguments on the issue of letting Ellis Ivory on the ballot, given Nancy Workman's Doctor's note.

Based on the questions asked by the Justices and their follow-ups, it seems like they are not going to overturn the ruling that the letter was not compliant enough with the statute. The actual decsion will be either this afternoon or tomorrow at the latest.

As a fellow law student pointed out, the letter said the stress of running a [losing] campaign is such that she is "disabled [from political office]...should she continue to campaign" which he noted is conditional. If she stops campaigning, which she did by withdrawing before getting the statutorially required doctor's note, then she wouldn't be disabled. Ergo, he says, the doctor is in fact saying Workman is not disabled. And thus, the GOP is not be allowed to replace her with Ellis Ivory on the ballot.

What is Nancy's disability actually? She is disabled from winning really. In a 4 way race, she was pulling 12 percent, below the other 2 major candidates (the Democrat Peter Carroon and the Independent Merrill Cook). The statute and legislative history, don't really say what disabled is, and I wish the court had addressed this more. Is it physically disabled, in which case every handicapped candidate could drop out and be replaced at the drop of a hat? Or is it, as I think, being disabled to properly perform the duties of the office and not the ability campaign. There are plenty of candidates who suck at campaigning (like Liberman and Gephardt) who obviously could be President, albeit terrible ones in my opinion (but better than the current President).

Another law student friend of mine joked that she is ethically disabled. This might make her by my definition "disabled" but the letter didn't say that. Now's too late to go ask for another letter. Maybe we could ask the Doctor what he meant when he wrote this or that. But as the trial court said, if we can't see only one meaning from the letter, it is too ambiguous to comply with the statute.

I hope for the County Clerk's office they don't over turn it either. The poor folks pointed out they have had more ballot versions than candidates. Hopefully the court will rule quickly so they aren't up late at night working to get all the ballots read for Tuesday.

86 years in the making

8 straight postseason wins. This Red Sox team woke up and destroyed their competition with their amazing pitching and timely hitting. My MVP is Keith Foulke, who allowed 2 hits and zero runs during the entire postseason. What a stud. I hope not too many people were injured, arrested or killed by the rioting last night. I am so happy for Boston and New England right now. It's good to root for the looser because it feels so sweet when they pull off the biggest upset in sports history; from cursed to first.

Now on to the morning roupup of political news:

An ABC/Washington Post tracking poll shows Kerry leading for a third day, 49%-48% among LVs, with Ralph Nader at 1%. The Washington Post version shows the same results.

A Strategic Vision (R) poll in NJ shows the state tied at 44%. This is the second poll in two days to show the state deadlocked. Is NJ just attention starved or is it the state party's corruption? I say, call in Bruce Almighty.

A Los Angeles Times poll in PA shows Kerry and Bush tied at 48%. A Zogby International tracking poll in PA shows Kerry leading 49%-46%. I still think Kerry is going to win PA with a couple point margin.

A Zogby International tracking poll in MN shows Kerry leading 47%-44%. A Strategic Vision (R) poll in the same state shows Bush leading 49%-47%. Remember if a partisan poll has their guy up by only 2, and a neutral poll has him down by three, the more likely thing is that he is down by 2-3.

ABC's Brian Ross and other ABC staffers told the Washington Post "that a Bush administration official leaked" the terror tape story to Matt Drudge "as a way of pressuring the network into airing the tape, which would heighten concerns about terrorism" Nice try guys. Turns out, the CIA can't verify the tape. Happy Halloween, Bush Administration (I know they love a good scare).

Some GOPers are classy winners or losers. But the KY GOP party and the campaign of endanged (due to his own bad moves) Senator Bunning aren't classy. The headline of Lexington Herald-Leader: "Manhood questioned in Senate campaign" -- on one KY GOP pol is calling Dr. Dan Mongiardo (D), Bunning's oposition "limp-wristed" and another questioning whether "the word 'man' applies to him. I will make sure I question the sexuality of the other side when I blow a 12 point lead. This seat is ripe for pickup against the mentally unstable hall of fame pitcher turned senator.

And I really shouldn't joke about how fanatical strong Bush supporters are. Stacey Silveira, who says she was beaten and held hostage with a screwdriver for telling her boyfriend she wanted to vote for Kerry told the Palm Beach Post that "He's crazy about Bush." No Stacey, he's just crazy.

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Two big court cases in UT

One involves a medicially brain-dead child and his parents who want to still care for him. The court ruled that the parents can have the kid, or as the hospital terms it "the body" and the parents can care for the child. I feel sad for the parents, but eventually they will have to let go. Maybe they are right that he is recovering and can blink, but I don't think they are neutral arbitors of medical facts there. I agree with the court here.

The second case is a political one. The Democratic Party sued over Ellis Ivory being allow to replace Nancy Workman on the ballot. Beehive gives us the full statute. I say a plain reading of the statute makes it pretty clear that Nancy's Doctor's note didn't meet the test. The district court judge agreed with me and took Ivory's name off the ballot. Tomorrow morning, the Utah Supreme Court will hear the case. I expect them to affirm the lower state court ruling.

In any case, I feel bad for the poor people at the Secretary of State's office. Nancy should have withdrawn and had her doctor say the "magic words." Now those poor clerks had to make 3 versions of the ballot (old one with Workman, one for Ivory, one with his name cut out).

In other local political news, Jim Matheson's race must have tightened because the DTrip is running a nasty polital ad basically saying John Swallow hates children. Matheson himself has a mailer with the same charges (Swallow voted to cut health care for children, etc.) They seem factual on their face (I am too lazy to read the citations right now) but it shows Matheson must have some information that he is not up by 32 points any more, otherwise, why bother?

Quote of the Day

Irony watch:

Pres. Bush on the missing explosives: "This investigation is important and it's ongoing, and a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your commander in chief." (10/27)

Good thing this president doesn't jump to conclusions without knowing the facts...

The worst part of his speech about the missing explosives is that he claims Kerry is denegrating our troops. Kerry isn't putting the blame on the troops, he is putting the blame on the President. Bush is the one who leaves the buck with the troops. He even tried to pin the "Mission Accomplished" sign on the soldiers on the USS Abraham Licoln.

He blamed the military commanders for inadaquate troop levels and equipment woes, even though those commanders when pressed did complain to their commander-in-chief that they needed more. What happened to those folks? Early retirement.

Six more days until a new President.

Kerry on against the Wayward Son

Things are looking up for Kerry. A Zogby International tracking poll in WI shows Kerry taking the lead 48%-46%, of course this is inside the margin of error but his first lead there in awhile. Another Zogby International tracking poll in IA shows the race tied at 45%. IA is going to be tight again like last time, with labor and the state party dragging Kerry over the finish line (like NM's Gov. Richardson, Gov. Vilsack has to win IA for Kerry in order to plausibly run for president in 2008). Without WI and IA, there is really no hope for George W. Bush.

Nationally, things are looking good for Kerry as well. An ABC/Washington Post tracking poll shows Kerry leading for the second day in a row, 49%-48% among LVs, with Ralph Nader at 1%. The Washington Post version shows Kerry leading 50%-48% with Nader remaining at 1%.

Nader is going to be a non-factor this year. Polls have shown his drawing equally from Bush and Kerry and not 75% from the Democrat like in 2000. The Nader vote is basically the 1% of America that is completely irrational and crazy. If Nader had endorsed Kerry back in March, he might be looking at an appointment to a consumer protection agency or at the SEC or something, now he's looking at the outside in again.

In other interesting news, the DNC has bought local TV ads to help Kerry in HI, which I can't believe he needs. If Kerry loses HI, I can't imagine him becoming president. But I guess the DNC takes all those polls seriously (Zobgy has it tied). Which begs the question, why aren't they doing ads in WV or AR? Play some offense guys!

Red Sox fans, what an amazing streak of games! A lunar eclipse is set to start "less than an hour" before the Sox and Cardinals play Game Four tonight. "If skies are clear, the moon over Busch Stadium will be blood red in the late innings." My guess, it will be bleeding because the Cards are going to be swept (and people in Boston will die in the riots).

And finally, I give you the picture of the day. I have shown photos from the Kerry-Clinton event in Philly but not from Bush's events, which are also huge, but I decribed them as having a traveling TV evangelist quality to them. Now I have proof:


Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Voter Fraud v. Voter Intimidation

Lately, GOPers have been whining about the huge potential for voter fraud with the advent of Help America Vote Act (HAVA)'s provisional voting and with all the Democratic 527s that have registered millions and millions of voters, some of whom have questionable eligibility; bad stuff will happen in 2004 if they don't act.

Their "actions" are mostly a) creating procedural hoops and hurdles for new and/or uneducated voters to navigate through (see OH Sec of State and GOP Blackwell and all the suits over his various rules) b) tricking voters into going to the wrong place and/or the wrong time to vote (via phone calls or pamphleteering) c) tricking voters into thinking they need certain things (like two forms of ID) that they don't e) jamming phone lines of Democratic GOTV to prevent the other side from turning out its vote (NH GOP head is now in jail because of his actions in 2002) d)challenging every possible likely democratic voter (aka Black people)'s eligibility to scare them into not voting and indirectly stall other would-be voters enough to turn time-sensitive voters away. In 2000, FL police, at Gov. Jeb Bush's direction, set up trap zones to stall and harass blacks about their forms of ID and keep them from voting.

I am all for keeping illegal immigrants, dogs, and dead people from voting, but I still would rather see 10 phony votes be cast than have 1 real voter be denied or scared out of voting.

The BBC has just posted a story that Bush's FL team is planning a quasi-legal voter suppression effort in 7 days: e-mails between Bush's FL director and his national "research" director found a 15-page so-called "caging list."

It lists 1,886 names and addresses of voters in predominantly black and traditionally Democrat areas of Jacksonville, Florida.

Obstinately, the idea is to challenge each of these folks and hope they don't vote. Given the fact that Bush won by 526 votes in FL last time, this is nearly 400% more than his margin last time and could mean the difference.

Remember, Al Gore didn't challenge so called "Red Counties" in FL because he thought he could get by with just the Blue ones and that Red ones would hurt him more than help. Turned out, he did really well in Jacksonville and would have won had he asked for a recount of the whole state from the outset.

More importantly, US federal law prohibits targeting challenges to voters, even if there is a basis for the challenge, if race is a factor in targeting the voters. Sounds pretty bad on its face. I wonder if the national media or local FL papers will cover this.

It gets worse:

we filmed a private detective filming every "early voter" - the majority of whom are black - from behind a vehicle with blacked-out windows.

The private detective claimed not to know who was paying for his all-day services.

Gee, I wonder who hired him?

Turnout 101

After learning the basics from Ed Kilgore, AKA NewDonkey, I wanted to impart with you what I have been taught.

If you have a polarizing figure, like Hillary Clinton or George Bush, having them go to swing states is somewhat dangerous because for every Bush voter you get excited by going to one of those TV-evangelist style hoe-downs, you excite a Anybody-But-Bush voter. This is why Kilgore says base-pandering and rallying can sometime have a net zero impact or even negative impact if you excite two ABBers for every Viva Busher.

GOTV-wise, this is why you go into precincts where you think harvesting voters will lead to harvesting more of your voters than the other guys. That is why Democrats go into black neighborhoods and GOPers go into wealthy suburbs, there is a more realable and concentrated set of voters there.

But the whole net impact issue is interesting given that Bush has not gone to Ohio very often in the past 3 weeks (twice) and hasn't been to Nevada or New Hampshire either. It seems Bush's people are following this principle well. See liberal columist E.J. Dionne (who I've had dinner with at my parent's house once, he likes red wine) and sometimes liberal columnist Tom Oliphant for their articles on the subject.

It seems like Bush is putting all his eggs into winning FL, IA and WI, and then hoping for the best in either NM or NV or both. Obviously, if Bush loses FL, then the whole thing is moot. But Kerry can also sink him if he gets WI or IA or NM and NV off the table. This is why Kerry has been hanging out in Wisconsin and Iowa so much, and why he went to Reno the other day. Don't get me wrong, winning those states will be tough for Kerry, but he has a lot more ways to get to 270 than Bush does right now.

Bush seems to have given up on OH and PA. Let us recall that no Republican has ever become president (or been reelected) without winning Ohio. Now, it is mathematically possible for Bush to do. But Bush is counting on flipping two Gore states, holding on to one he arguably lost (or at least tied) as well as either flipping yet another Gore state or holding on to one he barely won last time.

That's not good news for an incumbent President whose approval rating was, at one point, in the 90s (now it is at 47% with a week to go). Remember, 50% is the magic number, lower than that and a president loses, greater than that, he wins and at's a nail biter. I am betting Kerry wins, and I am not the only one.

Bloomberg wire reports state that "Ladbrokes, the world's biggest bookmaker, cut the odds" that Kerry will beat Bush "after gamblers bet more money on a Kerry victory."


Kerry leading or surging in FL in all but Gallup's poll (of course) but check out the internals, if they are listed

A Zogby Int'l poll; conducted 10/22-25; surveyed 601 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/25).

General Election Matchup
Now 10/24
Bush 48% 49%
Kerry 47 46
Other 2 2
Undec 3 4

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/22-24 for their own consumption; surveyed 801 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 10/26).

General Election Matchup
Now 10/22 10/15 10/7 8/30 Now 10/22 10/15 10/7 8/30
Bush 49% 49% 49% 49% 48% Bush 49% 49% 49% 49% 48%
Kerry 48 47 46 45 45 Kerry 47 46 45 44 44
Undec. 3 4 5 6 7 Nader 1 1 1 1 2
Undec. 3 4 5 6 6

Bush Job As Pres. Bush Job On Economy Bush Job On Iraq
Approve 50% Approve 48% Approve 50%
Disapprove 42 Disapprove 43 Disapprove 42

Direction Of Nation Fav/Unfav More Qualified
Right direction 49% Kerry Edwards Cheney To Be POTUS?
Wrong track 43 Fav 48% 50% 48% Cheney 52%
Unfav 48 39 47 Edwards 41

A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll; conducted 10/21-24; surveyed 909 regis. voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/26). Subsample: 768 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4%.

General Election Matchup
-Now- 9/24-27 9/18-22 8/20-22
Bush 51% 51% 52% 49% 49% 47% 48% 45%
Kerry 43 42 43 44 46 45 46 45
Nader 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3
Undec. 4 6 4 5 3 6 4 7

An American Research Group poll; conducted 10/23-25; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/26). For this poll, the voter sample was made up of 38%R, 42%D, 20%I/Other; In '00, the state's electorate broke down 38%R, 40%D, 22%I/Other.

General Election Matchup
Now GOP Dem Ind 10/5 9/20 8/5 7/15
Kerry 49% 10% 83% 51% 47% 46% 50% 47%
Bush 46 86 12 43 45 45 43 44
Nader 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 2
Undec. 4 6 5 4 6 7 5 6

PS: Bubba is not only back, he is rocking the house. Today he was in FL; plans call for Clinton in to hit NV, NM, AR for sure, OH and CO, maybe. Clinton is loving the attention and the ability to campaign again.

Brilliant move by Kerry. I think Clinton's negatives have gone down from 2000 and he doesn't excite conservatives or moderates as much as he used to back in the 1990s and 2000. Gore and Clark are out in force in FL too. I think Kerry will carry the big three (PA, OH and FL) and Bush may get CO IA WI and AR, but it won't matter.

Monday, October 25, 2004

An invitation to debate

Dear Readers,

Please note the title and sub-heading for this blog. I am sure some have said "Yeah, right, pinko" after reading my many posts on hot-button social issues and my outspoken critique of the Bush Adminstration. I am all for reasonable GOPers and Democrats, and I just think Democrats have been more reasonable lately, especially compared to this president.

Also note that I added a "Friend" to the blogroll: The State of the Beehive. This is a conservative, one might even say libertarian, blog but actually quite rational and not a foaming at the mouth Freeper. And since he and I share a love, the state of Utah, I challenge him to a debate. On any issue, almost any time (I have class and homework and other obligations), online. Beehive (Charlie?), you can post a comment here, or you can post on your own blog.

So far, I have taken up the challenge replying to his doubts about my position and reasoning on UT amendment 3 (the anti-gay marriage amendment). Please go to my comment on his blog for more details, I don't like cross-posts or long posts that bore readers.

Anywho, the gauntlet has been dropped, the proverbial glove has been slapped in your face, or in UFC terms "Let's get it on."

Supreme Court Redux

OK, remember my posting about the supreme court issue is just a scare tactic, and me saying Rehnquist and Stevens are the most likely to go but their health is good? Well so much for that.

The Washington Post today informed us that "Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist is being treated for thyroid cancer at the Bethesda Naval Hospital, the Supreme Court said today."

Oh no. I hope he doesn't get sick, really I do. I don't like his opinions that much, but I don't mind him nearly as much as Scalia or Thomas (the absolute worst).

If, God forbid, he died during a Kerry presidency, who would Kerry nominate and eventually appoint? Gore would have appointed Harvard Constitutional Law Professor Laurence Tribe, Kerry is looking at D.C. Circuit Judge David Tatel, former Solicitor General Drew Days, Second Circuit Judge Sonia Sotomayor, California Chief Justice Ronald George and former Stanford Law School Dean Kathleen Sullivan.

What about Bush? Bush's list includes 4th Circuit Judges Judges J. Harvie Wilkinson III, and J. Michael Luttig; Former Deputy Attorney General Larry Thompson; former Solicitor General Theodore Olson; White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales. Remember Alberto? He is the author of the torture memo.

That should make people go out and vote, because we don't want people like that appointed for life.

Bubba's back

I knew people would get excited about seeing the ex-Prez but look at this picture (via Kos who says that CNN claims 100-120,000 people showed up) but WOW:

What's up in CO?

Rocky Mountain News' Tankersley reports, John Kerry "has scaled back" his TV ads in CO this week, and "scrapped" a planned campaign stop in Denver.

Instead, Kerry "will refocus his time and ad dollars on more hotly contested swing states" such as OH and FL -- "although campaign officials insist that they will continue to fight for" CO. KE'04 "will continue to bring surrogates into" CO to stump for Kerry, to advertise on Spanish-language radio and to push an "aggressive" GOTV effort; the RNC will continue to run ads in CO on Kerry's behalf at "saturation levels" (10/25).

Sounds like Kerry's giving up on CO right? Sounds like his internal polls show his margin sinking fast. But then look at this Zogby Int'l poll; conducted 10/21-24; surveyed 602 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/24).

General Election Matchup
Kerry 49%
Bush 45
Other 3
Undec. 3

And what is up with the Aloha state? Or Arkansas?

A Ward Research poll; conducted 10/13-18 for the Honolulu Advertiser; surveyed 600 regis. voters; margin of error +/- 4% (Honolulu Advertiser, 10/23).

General Election Matchup Bush On Entering War
Bush 43% Misled people 54%
Kerry 43 Provided correct info 35
Undec/Oth 14

War Made World Safer For U.S.? Will U.S. Need To Reinstate Draft?
Yes 39% Yes 31%
No 56 No 58

For AR: Opinion Research Associates (R) poll; conducted 10/18-20; surveyed 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.5% (Log Cabin Democrat, 10/24).

General Election Matchup
All Ind Wom All Ind Wom
Bush 48% 54% 53% 52% 69% 47%
Kerry 48 39 42 43 22 47
Undec. 4 7 5 5 8 6

Appearantly, Bubba is "itching" to campaign back home. After all, he still believes in a place called Hope.

Quote of the Day

"Clinton had more sex" -Porn Star Jenna Jamison, comparing herself to the ex-President while promoting her book "How To Make Love Like a Porn Star."