Friday, October 31, 2003

Iowa and South Carolina: More of the same, and Clark pulls ahead

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/26-28 for KCCI-TV; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4%. Dem sample: 400 likely Dem caucus voters; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 10/31).

Dem Caucus Matchup ---Now--- --8/27---
All Men Wom 8/27 6/4 Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav
Dean 26% 29% 23% 25% 11% 72%/ 18% 62%/ 13%
Gephardt 26 30 22 21 27 69 / 28 64 / 24
Kerry 15 13 17 16 14 65 / 23 62 / 19
Edwards 8 5 11 6 4 53 / 25 37 / 18
Lieberman 3 5 1 12 10 52 / 40 61 / 30
Clark 3 4 2 3 n/a 36 / 27 17 / 3
Kucinich 1 1 1 1 1 20 / 18 15 / 8
Braun - - - - 2 14 / 20 18 / 15
Sharpton - - - - 1 10 / 55 11 / 57
Undec. 18 13 23 15 29

General Election Matchups
Now 8/27 Now 8/27 Now 8/27
Bush 48% 51% Bush 46% 48% Bush 47% 49%
Dean 43 38 Gephardt 43 39 Kerry 42 40
Undec. 9 11 Undec. 11 13 Undec. 11 11

Now 8/27 Now 8/27 Now 8/27
Bush 49% 52% Bush 49% 52% Bush 49% 49%
Edwards 41 35 Clark 40 35 Lieberman 41 39
Undec. 10 13 Undec. 11 13 Undec. 10 12

Pollster Del Ali, on the Dem primary: In August, Dean "held a 25%-21% lead over" Gephardt; "today, both Dean and Gephardt are tied among likely caucus voters ... Dean and Gephardt continue to run well among men where Gephardt has 30% of all men voters and Dean 29%. Kerry runs better among women voters (17%) than he does men (13%). It should be pointed out that only 13% of men voters remain undecided while 23% of the women voters are undecided."

Ali, looking to the the general: "President Bush's Democratic challengers have improved their standing in Iowa over the past two months. ... Even" Clark and Lieberman, who "opted to pass over" the '04 caucus, "improved" their standing against Bush. However, Ali notes: "Although each of the Democratic challengers trail President Bush in head to head matchups, the President fails to garnish fifty percent of Iowa's electorate in any of his matchups against his potential rivals" (release, 10/31).

An American Research Group poll; conducted 10/26-30; surveyed 600 regis. voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/31).

WH '04 Dem Primary Matchup
Now 9/03 8/03 4/03 Fav/Unfav ID
Clark 17% 7% -% -% 23%/ 9% 62%
Edwards 10 16 10 7 31 / 22 79
Lieberman 8 7 14 19 33 / 22 88
Dean 7 6 5 2 20 / 22 70
Gephardt 7 5 8 9 27 / 25 80
Braun 5 4 1 1 17 / 14 45
Sharpton 5 5 4 3 13 / 43 71
Kerry 4 5 6 8 19 / 17 52
Kucinich 1 1 1 - 6 / 17 30
Undec. 36 42 48 47

Is there anything new here? The results from IA mean that Gephardt is going to have a damned tough time getting rid of Dean. Look to Kerry to tag team with Gephardt to weaken Dean in IA and for each to lay off each other. Whether Geppy returns the favor in NH remains unknown, or if it will even matter (since some polls have Dean walking away with it in the Granite State).

It also shows that SC is totally up for grabs, much to Edwards dismay. If Clark can leap up and have spend 2 days there and almost no money (except for rental cars and a few staffers), then what does it say about Edwards' ad buys and Kerry's re-announce in SC? It says Kerry and Edwards suck, that's what.

For Kerry: 3rd or gone in IA. I just don't see how he can get 4th in IA and expect to gain enough mo' to take out Dean in NH or even continue on.

For Edwards: ditto. Although he can hang around until SC to see if he can bet it all on smashing Clark, I think if he can't muster 4th he is DOA 3rd he pretty much kills Kerry.

For Clark: 4th in IA would be a miricle and destroy Kerry or Edwards. 3rd in NH is a must, as is 1st in several February 3rd contests (like SC hint hint).

For Lieberman: 3rd in NH would destory Clark and or Edwards and Gephardt, especially if Gephardt wins Iowa. But that won't happen. Lieberman is doing some token stuff in NH and counting on OK and AZ to bail him out, as we all know, SC will never go for him. (Jewish thing will get him in trouble, sad fact)

For Gephardt: IA is a must win, as is MI. If Dean nabs the SEUI endorsement, which seems likely to happen next week, look for other unions to hold off on endorsing the Gepster. Another tip for Gep: every other serious candidate has a blog, even Bush, get with the program.

For Dean: again, lose both IA and NH and even though you have money, no one will care. Your metoric rise will be seen as an aberation and eventually people will notice all the fliping and flopping and double standards. Watch out for the oppo men of Kerry and Gephardt, you can't just cry "Washington," you have to explain why you've "seen the light" on oh-so many things.

For the Rest: please let us know when you drop out

Thursday, October 30, 2003

Unsurprising quote of the day

Sen. Zell Miller ("D"-GA): "I'm not saying that I'm going to become a Republican, but in 2004 this, this Democrat is going to vote for George W. Bush for president" ("Hannity & Colmes").

This is the man who is eerily like the factious Idaho Democratic Senator who switched parties at the end of last night's The West Wing.

Wednesday, October 29, 2003

Quote of the Day

"I like Wyclef Jean and everybody thinks I'm very hip, but I am really a square, , as my kids will tell you. I don't even get to watch television. I've heard the term (metrosexual), but I don't know what it means" -- Dean, "after professing his metrosexuality" to a Boulder audience, according to the Denver Post.

Here's another good one:
"Now that I'm running for president, I've seen the light."

-- Howard Dean on Yucca Mountain, Las Vegas Review-Journal, 10/29 On Yucca Mountain.

Runner up:

Graham, on life expectancy, according to The St. Petersburg [FL] Times: "For the average American male, you have about 15 years (to live) after you reach 65." Graham is 66.

Tuesday, October 28, 2003

General Election Sources

Remember how last Thursday I had talked about African-American voter suppression attempts in Kentucky by the state GOP and how they had claimed that poll watcher placements were random? And how I doubted it? Josh Marshall once again finds a way to prove me right and good contradicting info, such as this flyer. If you are reading it and wondering what the ABC offices are, they are not the network but are the offices of the Associated Builders and Contractors, AKA a corporate trade group of the construction industry.

"A spokesman for the Fletcher campaign, Wes Irvin, tells me that Congressman Fletcher did attend a board meeting of the Executive Board of the ABC on the morning in question. But this, said Irvin, was a normal campaign outreach meeting to a group of political supporters and was unrelated to any issues about voting or ballot integrity. " yeah right....

"The flyer is signed by Mike Czerwonka, a Republican activist from Louisville. In the flyer he says he has been 'asked by the Fletcher Campaign for Governor to serve in the capacity of insuring the integrity of the election process' in portions of Louisville, and that Fletcher, the Republican candidate for governor, would himself be attending the meeting, " said Marshall. Of course, Flechter said, "who?" and pretended that he didn't talk to them. Either way, their tactics are shameful if not illegal.

Monday, October 27, 2003

Primary Sources

Here is a copy of that Rumsfeld memo that ended up in the hands of the venerable, hard-hitting news paper known as USA TODAY.

The most fun about this now infamous memo is that is exactly the opposite of what Rumsfeld has said publically and the same as what Democrats running for President have said, that War on Terrorism isn't working out like how Bush promised.

Some gems. "We are having mixed results with Al Qaida, although we have put considerable pressure on them — nonetheless, a great many remain at large." On a plan to get the terrorists: "The US is putting relatively little effort into a long-range plan."
Irony Alert

It seems one of the biggest fans of the War in Iraq, a guy who had claimed it was connected to the War on Terrorism, that Iraqis would welcome us with open arms, that we would be in and out rapidly, was nearly killed when a large bomb went off near his Al Rashid Hotel.

Paul Wolfowitz was not harmed, thankfully, but senior military officials were, and today there was another attack in Iraq. This time, 30-40 people were killed because some terrorist struck a Red Cross building. Pretty sick stuff. It just goes to show that Iraq is probably the most dangerous place to live in these days (or at least in the area between Trikrit and Baghdad) and it is now a hot bed of terrorism.

I had wanted to talk about the presidential Debate in Detroit last night, but our national security and global insecurity is vastly more important than how many pot shots Lieberman got in or how many cute phrases Gephardt has (10 and 3).

This war and its aftermath have DISASTER written all over it. How could so many people be mistaken about the weapons of mass destruction? How could the Bush administration be so brazen as to lie about evidence to rush to a optional war? How they be in such a hurry that they failed to do realistic planning or let experts do their jobs, instead of giving the entire gig to the Pentagon? How could Congress bend over in the shower with Bush and reach for the proverbial oap and then say thank you afterwards?