Iowa and South Carolina: More of the same, and Clark pulls ahead

IA
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/26-28 for KCCI-TV; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4%. Dem sample: 400 likely Dem caucus voters; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 10/31).

Dem Caucus Matchup ---Now--- --8/27---
All Men Wom 8/27 6/4 Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav
Dean 26% 29% 23% 25% 11% 72%/ 18% 62%/ 13%
Gephardt 26 30 22 21 27 69 / 28 64 / 24
Kerry 15 13 17 16 14 65 / 23 62 / 19
Edwards 8 5 11 6 4 53 / 25 37 / 18
Lieberman 3 5 1 12 10 52 / 40 61 / 30
Clark 3 4 2 3 n/a 36 / 27 17 / 3
Kucinich 1 1 1 1 1 20 / 18 15 / 8
Braun - - - - 2 14 / 20 18 / 15
Sharpton - - - - 1 10 / 55 11 / 57
Undec. 18 13 23 15 29

General Election Matchups
Now 8/27 Now 8/27 Now 8/27
Bush 48% 51% Bush 46% 48% Bush 47% 49%
Dean 43 38 Gephardt 43 39 Kerry 42 40
Undec. 9 11 Undec. 11 13 Undec. 11 11

Now 8/27 Now 8/27 Now 8/27
Bush 49% 52% Bush 49% 52% Bush 49% 49%
Edwards 41 35 Clark 40 35 Lieberman 41 39
Undec. 10 13 Undec. 11 13 Undec. 10 12

Pollster Del Ali, on the Dem primary: In August, Dean "held a 25%-21% lead over" Gephardt; "today, both Dean and Gephardt are tied among likely caucus voters ... Dean and Gephardt continue to run well among men where Gephardt has 30% of all men voters and Dean 29%. Kerry runs better among women voters (17%) than he does men (13%). It should be pointed out that only 13% of men voters remain undecided while 23% of the women voters are undecided."

Ali, looking to the the general: "President Bush's Democratic challengers have improved their standing in Iowa over the past two months. ... Even" Clark and Lieberman, who "opted to pass over" the '04 caucus, "improved" their standing against Bush. However, Ali notes: "Although each of the Democratic challengers trail President Bush in head to head matchups, the President fails to garnish fifty percent of Iowa's electorate in any of his matchups against his potential rivals" (release, 10/31).

SC
An American Research Group poll; conducted 10/26-30; surveyed 600 regis. voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/31).

WH '04 Dem Primary Matchup
Now 9/03 8/03 4/03 Fav/Unfav ID
Clark 17% 7% -% -% 23%/ 9% 62%
Edwards 10 16 10 7 31 / 22 79
Lieberman 8 7 14 19 33 / 22 88
Dean 7 6 5 2 20 / 22 70
Gephardt 7 5 8 9 27 / 25 80
Braun 5 4 1 1 17 / 14 45
Sharpton 5 5 4 3 13 / 43 71
Kerry 4 5 6 8 19 / 17 52
Kucinich 1 1 1 - 6 / 17 30
Undec. 36 42 48 47

Is there anything new here? The results from IA mean that Gephardt is going to have a damned tough time getting rid of Dean. Look to Kerry to tag team with Gephardt to weaken Dean in IA and for each to lay off each other. Whether Geppy returns the favor in NH remains unknown, or if it will even matter (since some polls have Dean walking away with it in the Granite State).

It also shows that SC is totally up for grabs, much to Edwards dismay. If Clark can leap up and have spend 2 days there and almost no money (except for rental cars and a few staffers), then what does it say about Edwards' ad buys and Kerry's re-announce in SC? It says Kerry and Edwards suck, that's what.

For Kerry: 3rd or gone in IA. I just don't see how he can get 4th in IA and expect to gain enough mo' to take out Dean in NH or even continue on.

For Edwards: ditto. Although he can hang around until SC to see if he can bet it all on smashing Clark, I think if he can't muster 4th he is DOA 3rd he pretty much kills Kerry.

For Clark: 4th in IA would be a miricle and destroy Kerry or Edwards. 3rd in NH is a must, as is 1st in several February 3rd contests (like SC hint hint).

For Lieberman: 3rd in NH would destory Clark and or Edwards and Gephardt, especially if Gephardt wins Iowa. But that won't happen. Lieberman is doing some token stuff in NH and counting on OK and AZ to bail him out, as we all know, SC will never go for him. (Jewish thing will get him in trouble, sad fact)

For Gephardt: IA is a must win, as is MI. If Dean nabs the SEUI endorsement, which seems likely to happen next week, look for other unions to hold off on endorsing the Gepster. Another tip for Gep: every other serious candidate has a blog, even Bush, get with the program.

For Dean: again, lose both IA and NH and even though you have money, no one will care. Your metoric rise will be seen as an aberation and eventually people will notice all the fliping and flopping and double standards. Watch out for the oppo men of Kerry and Gephardt, you can't just cry "Washington," you have to explain why you've "seen the light" on oh-so many things.

For the Rest: please let us know when you drop out