Friday, February 06, 2004

The more things change...

This weekend is the Washington state, Michigan, and Maine caucuses look for Kerry to go 3-0 since nobody is really contesting these ones, at least not Dean any more since he will lose in a big way.

For example look at the Elway Poll for the WA caucuses. (MoE 5%. 1/27-29.)

Kerry 40
Dean 13
Edwards 11
Clark 8

And Michigan will be a cakewalk now that Gephardt has endorsed Kerry. Kos says, "They should just cancel the darn thing and give Kerry all the delegates."

so here's the EPIC/MRA poll. MoE 4.9%. 2/4-5. (1/20-25)

Kerry 62 (37)
Dean 13 (14)
Edwards 11 (14)
Clark 5 (10)

Out of Wisconsin, which Dean is claiming is his must win (after previous must wins of IA, NH, NM, WA, ME, MI,..Well you get the idea), the University of Wisconsin Badger Poll (PDF) has some very bad news for him

(MoE 4%. 1/27-2/3.)

Kerry 35
Clark 11
Edwards 9
Dean 8

In sum? Edwards and Clark need to knock the other out this Tuesday to have a shot at Kerry. If they split VA and TN, it just more of the same. Clark or Edwards needs to win both southern states and then make a play for Wisconsin big time.

If either one of them were to win the Badger state, then I think Kerry's Mo would be knocked over like a turtle on his back and the free media of a "stunning upset" would be in the works. If Kerry wins WI, it is all over. Let the Veepstakes begin.

Thursday, February 05, 2004

David Peter Billings, Esq.

Sound arrogant? You Bet. But I am happy since I am officially going to Law School next fall! The University of Utah's S.J. Quinney College of Law just called me up to say so. Before you laugh, Utah is a top 50 school with a student body of about 125 per a class. And, less than $9,000 a year to attend for residents like me. Hot digity dog!
Kerry To Kettle: "You're Black."

According to a report from the AP, which was picked up by the San Francisco Chronicle the less bad of the two terrible Bay Area newspapers, MA Sen. John Kerry "intervened in the Senate to keep open a loophole that had allowed a major insurer to divert millions" from the Big Dig, then received "tens of thousands" from AIG "during the next two years" . Now the Boston Brahmin who is a man of the people and not the special interests better explain that one. Paging Bob Shrum.

Some dirty laundry: According to the Boston Herald, A "Special Enquirer Investigation" of Kerry "kicks off with an old galpal's claim that" he "is so vain," he "always wanted to make love where he could see himself in the mirror." Aw, how sweet.

ex-Frontrunner Howard Dean sounds dour. In an e-mail to supporters, on the WI primary he said, "A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2 -- and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race." Sounds like WI will get rid of Dean and Maybe seriously undermine Kerry if Clark or Edwards can beat him there...

More proof on why we need to get rid of the Bush-Cheney Plauge, thanks to the LA Times: "SCOTUS Justice Antonin Scalia "traveled as an official guest" of VP Cheney on a small gov't jet "that served as Air Force Two when the pair came" to LA "last month to hunt ducks." Can you say Conflict of interest? Isn't Scalia voting on whether his pal Cheney should have his Energy panel members brought to light? Or if the government can indefinitely keep people in Guantanamo Bay without a lawyer? Not to say Scalia wasn't biased in the first place, but this is just shameless.

Wednesday, February 04, 2004

Groundhog Tuesday: Kerry saw a shadow

Last night, Kerry won big all around, with one exception: the South. John Edwards and Wesley Clark combined to make sure that Kerry didn't get Oklahoma or South Carolina.

Currently, Clark is leading Edwards by a little more than 1,000 votes in Oklahoma. But maybe they are going to do a recount. Of course, Everyone else was a goose egg.

Howard Dean made a sad, sad speech to his supporters in Washington. And Kerry went on network TV and droned on forever. He is just missing something there is no life there. I don't want to listen to him give the state of the union, because he seems to be talking down everytime just like Al Gore was tiresome quickly.

I didn't get to hear Clark's speech, but Edwards was fantastic again. He talked to America, not to his audience, and was short and to the point. You could see why he was such a successful attorney. Despite the delegate totals, I see the election as follows:

  1. Kerry
  2. Edwards
  3. Clark
  4. ...Dean

I can see how Clark or Edwards can win more states (TN and VA) but where is Dean going to win? Not Michigan, where Kerry is over 50%, and I think even his liberal bastion of Washington won't be kind to him, nor will Wisconsin when the time comes.

The trouble for Edwards and Clark is that the other is still around and will hurt the other from piling up big wins in the south. Plus, both need to prove they can win elsewhere. Edwards goes the closest to that with his 5 point loss to Kerry in Iowa, but he needs to actually win one, I don't don't see which ones until Super Tuesday. He will try to get a respectable second in Michigan, but we will see.

Look for all the Unions to abandon Howard soon, and leap on to the Kerry bandwagon. Now it is Dean that is like Bruce Willis in Sixth Sense, not Lieberman. Joe-mentum got him 98 votes in conservative North Dakota, so he finally dropped out last night.

On to the next race on Saturday.

Tuesday, February 03, 2004

Return of the leaked 1PM Exit polls: looks like a Kerry-Edwards matchup

According to Political Wire, DailyKos, and the New Republic's The Corner, here are the numbers from their source:

South Carolina: Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10

Oklahoma: Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28

Missouri: Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10

Delaware: Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

Arizona: Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13

Keep in mind that NH was way off (Kerry won by much more-- 13 points instead of negative 1 to +6 points, although the Clark-Edwards part was right) so who knows if these numbers are right or will hold up. If they do, I will stay with Clark until either he hangs it up or wins. If he hangs up his flack jacket, then I am with Edwards, and if Edwards folds, then I am with Kerry. I am a ABD, ABK, and ABB although ABB most importantly.

Of course, GOP softie and shameless self-promoter Glen Reynolds wants to make some one feel bad, "I'm surprised to see Edwards ahead in Oklahoma -- and it looks like bad news for Clark everywhere." Pass the salt and lemon juice please.
Maybe I don't want to go home after all

The Utah House of Representatives voted 2/2 "to urge Congress to withdraw" from the UN, arguing the international organziation "was a threat to American sovereignty." The nonbinding resolution favors "freeing the nation from a large financial burden and retaining the nation's sovereignty to decide what is best for the nation and determine what steps it considers appropriate as the leader of the free world in full control of its armed forces and destiny." Rep. Scott Daniels (D) of Salt Lake City (Foothill area) "said it drives his constituents crazy when the Legislature gets bogged down in issues that have nothing to do" with state government. Daniels: "A message I get from them a lot is, 'What are you doing up there? We have taxes to think about. We have important state issues. Why do I read that the Legislature is discussing the United Nations or the war in Iraq or whether Jell-O should be our state dessert?'"
High Noon

The primary season that started shortly after New Year's 2003 could end today the same way it started: with Kerry on top.

It is clear that Kerry will win at least 5 of the 7 contests today, but Zogby shows he could win all 7. Clark's lead in Oklahoma has narrowed, as has Edwards' in South Carolina. Clark's "strong second" in Arizona just got weaker, although he is assured to get delegates in AZ, OK, and probably NM. Edwards will get them in SC and MO, and probably OK. Dean might get delegates in NM. The lion's share will go to Kerry in any event.

Edwards, to his credit, told the Post's David Broder that if he loses SC, he will promptly drop out and endorse Kerry. No such news from Lieberman or Dean, let alone Clark (or the 2 protest candidates). I suspect that Lieberman will be gone after tomorrow, since he has no more cash, or at least no one will give him any more. If Kerry wins all 7, I just don't see how Dean can fool himself into thinking that he can beat Kerry in Wisconsin or Washington, let alone Super Tuesday. When you are firing staffers and not paying others, all whilst your ex-Campaign Manager is on Hardball tonight, you are in serious trouble.

I will just tell you this, dear reader, I have a sickening feeling in my stomach, one that does not bode well for Kerry's chances in November, regardless of what polls say now. Since Bush, I am sure, has an October Surprise (Osama Bin Laden wrapped up in a bow) ready for him.

Monday, February 02, 2004

Superbowl silliness

Once again, my adopted team of the New England Patriots won their second superbowl in three years (both of those years I was in New England, so I think I am their good luck charm). Very cool stuff, except for the idiot drunken loud mouth Bostonians who try to ruin it all with their machismo.

Of all the unimportant things to report about, the Right is up in arms over the "accidental" display of Janet Jackson's surgically enhanced breast by Justin Timberlake during their over 'Nsync-ed AOL Highspeed Superbowl XXXVIII halftime show. According to MTV and Timberlake, they are very sorry about this "costume malfuction" , sure was a malfunction, when you rip off someone's clothing, its so surprising that it comes off. It seems like they didn't get the reaction they were hoping for: an aghast CBS, who capitulated to the RNC about the Reagan's miniseries and wouldn't let show its halftime ad against Bush (which it broadcast on CNN instead), went abruptly to commercial. Meanwhile a furry of letters went into the likes of CNN and I am sure other stations fueling the fire. Here's the press release Janet's people wanted you to see. Sex sells, right?

On to politics. Kerry is looking like he will win 5 out of 7, maybe even 6, if he gets close enough to Clark in Oklahoma. Edwards looks safe in South Carolina, but can he translate that into more wins down the road, or was this his Alamo. Then again, Kerry's Alamo strategy was very successful. In fact, Zogby has even better numbers for Kerry, looking like he could sweep all 7. If that happens, we are looking for who will be Kerry's VP. Because after Tuesday, it could all be over. Then again, Zogby was so off on NH last time, with his within the margin of error race with Dean that then shot down back to everyone else's poll literally overnight, that I think his credibility is toast.

Advice to Kerry on VP: make it Edwards or Clark. You need a moderate Southern outsider to soften your liberal Northeastern establishment image. Graham won't get you FL it will just land you right back in the senate. There's a reason why he sucked in this race. Evan Bayh is a nice guy, but not too bright and I don't know if he can carry Indiana for you, plus he is also from the South. Maybe Bill Richardson, but he supposedly is not interested. I suspect he is vying for 2008 with Hillary and maybe Edwards (Gore is now officially out of the running given his poor choice and execution of endorsing Howard Dean).