Tuesday, February 03, 2004

High Noon

The primary season that started shortly after New Year's 2003 could end today the same way it started: with Kerry on top.

It is clear that Kerry will win at least 5 of the 7 contests today, but Zogby shows he could win all 7. Clark's lead in Oklahoma has narrowed, as has Edwards' in South Carolina. Clark's "strong second" in Arizona just got weaker, although he is assured to get delegates in AZ, OK, and probably NM. Edwards will get them in SC and MO, and probably OK. Dean might get delegates in NM. The lion's share will go to Kerry in any event.

Edwards, to his credit, told the Post's David Broder that if he loses SC, he will promptly drop out and endorse Kerry. No such news from Lieberman or Dean, let alone Clark (or the 2 protest candidates). I suspect that Lieberman will be gone after tomorrow, since he has no more cash, or at least no one will give him any more. If Kerry wins all 7, I just don't see how Dean can fool himself into thinking that he can beat Kerry in Wisconsin or Washington, let alone Super Tuesday. When you are firing staffers and not paying others, all whilst your ex-Campaign Manager is on Hardball tonight, you are in serious trouble.

I will just tell you this, dear reader, I have a sickening feeling in my stomach, one that does not bode well for Kerry's chances in November, regardless of what polls say now. Since Bush, I am sure, has an October Surprise (Osama Bin Laden wrapped up in a bow) ready for him.

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