Friday, February 06, 2004

The more things change...

This weekend is the Washington state, Michigan, and Maine caucuses look for Kerry to go 3-0 since nobody is really contesting these ones, at least not Dean any more since he will lose in a big way.

For example look at the Elway Poll for the WA caucuses. (MoE 5%. 1/27-29.)

Kerry 40
Dean 13
Edwards 11
Clark 8

And Michigan will be a cakewalk now that Gephardt has endorsed Kerry. Kos says, "They should just cancel the darn thing and give Kerry all the delegates."

so here's the EPIC/MRA poll. MoE 4.9%. 2/4-5. (1/20-25)

Kerry 62 (37)
Dean 13 (14)
Edwards 11 (14)
Clark 5 (10)

Out of Wisconsin, which Dean is claiming is his must win (after previous must wins of IA, NH, NM, WA, ME, MI,..Well you get the idea), the University of Wisconsin Badger Poll (PDF) has some very bad news for him

(MoE 4%. 1/27-2/3.)

Kerry 35
Clark 11
Edwards 9
Dean 8

In sum? Edwards and Clark need to knock the other out this Tuesday to have a shot at Kerry. If they split VA and TN, it just more of the same. Clark or Edwards needs to win both southern states and then make a play for Wisconsin big time.

If either one of them were to win the Badger state, then I think Kerry's Mo would be knocked over like a turtle on his back and the free media of a "stunning upset" would be in the works. If Kerry wins WI, it is all over. Let the Veepstakes begin.

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