Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Turnout 101

After learning the basics from Ed Kilgore, AKA NewDonkey, I wanted to impart with you what I have been taught.

If you have a polarizing figure, like Hillary Clinton or George Bush, having them go to swing states is somewhat dangerous because for every Bush voter you get excited by going to one of those TV-evangelist style hoe-downs, you excite a Anybody-But-Bush voter. This is why Kilgore says base-pandering and rallying can sometime have a net zero impact or even negative impact if you excite two ABBers for every Viva Busher.

GOTV-wise, this is why you go into precincts where you think harvesting voters will lead to harvesting more of your voters than the other guys. That is why Democrats go into black neighborhoods and GOPers go into wealthy suburbs, there is a more realable and concentrated set of voters there.

But the whole net impact issue is interesting given that Bush has not gone to Ohio very often in the past 3 weeks (twice) and hasn't been to Nevada or New Hampshire either. It seems Bush's people are following this principle well. See liberal columist E.J. Dionne (who I've had dinner with at my parent's house once, he likes red wine) and sometimes liberal columnist Tom Oliphant for their articles on the subject.

It seems like Bush is putting all his eggs into winning FL, IA and WI, and then hoping for the best in either NM or NV or both. Obviously, if Bush loses FL, then the whole thing is moot. But Kerry can also sink him if he gets WI or IA or NM and NV off the table. This is why Kerry has been hanging out in Wisconsin and Iowa so much, and why he went to Reno the other day. Don't get me wrong, winning those states will be tough for Kerry, but he has a lot more ways to get to 270 than Bush does right now.

Bush seems to have given up on OH and PA. Let us recall that no Republican has ever become president (or been reelected) without winning Ohio. Now, it is mathematically possible for Bush to do. But Bush is counting on flipping two Gore states, holding on to one he arguably lost (or at least tied) as well as either flipping yet another Gore state or holding on to one he barely won last time.

That's not good news for an incumbent President whose approval rating was, at one point, in the 90s (now it is at 47% with a week to go). Remember, 50% is the magic number, lower than that and a president loses, greater than that, he wins and at 50...it's a nail biter. I am betting Kerry wins, and I am not the only one.

Bloomberg wire reports state that "Ladbrokes, the world's biggest bookmaker, cut the odds" that Kerry will beat Bush "after gamblers bet more money on a Kerry victory."


Kerry leading or surging in FL in all but Gallup's poll (of course) but check out the internals, if they are listed

A Zogby Int'l poll; conducted 10/22-25; surveyed 601 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/25).

General Election Matchup
Now 10/24
Bush 48% 49%
Kerry 47 46
Other 2 2
Undec 3 4

A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 10/22-24 for their own consumption; surveyed 801 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 10/26).

General Election Matchup
Now 10/22 10/15 10/7 8/30 Now 10/22 10/15 10/7 8/30
Bush 49% 49% 49% 49% 48% Bush 49% 49% 49% 49% 48%
Kerry 48 47 46 45 45 Kerry 47 46 45 44 44
Undec. 3 4 5 6 7 Nader 1 1 1 1 2
Undec. 3 4 5 6 6

Bush Job As Pres. Bush Job On Economy Bush Job On Iraq
Approve 50% Approve 48% Approve 50%
Disapprove 42 Disapprove 43 Disapprove 42

Direction Of Nation Fav/Unfav More Qualified
Right direction 49% Kerry Edwards Cheney To Be POTUS?
Wrong track 43 Fav 48% 50% 48% Cheney 52%
Unfav 48 39 47 Edwards 41

A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll; conducted 10/21-24; surveyed 909 regis. voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/26). Subsample: 768 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4%.

General Election Matchup
-Now- 9/24-27 9/18-22 8/20-22
Bush 51% 51% 52% 49% 49% 47% 48% 45%
Kerry 43 42 43 44 46 45 46 45
Nader 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3
Undec. 4 6 4 5 3 6 4 7

An American Research Group poll; conducted 10/23-25; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/26). For this poll, the voter sample was made up of 38%R, 42%D, 20%I/Other; In '00, the state's electorate broke down 38%R, 40%D, 22%I/Other.

General Election Matchup
Now GOP Dem Ind 10/5 9/20 8/5 7/15
Kerry 49% 10% 83% 51% 47% 46% 50% 47%
Bush 46 86 12 43 45 45 43 44
Nader 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 2
Undec. 4 6 5 4 6 7 5 6

PS: Bubba is not only back, he is rocking the house. Today he was in FL; plans call for Clinton in to hit NV, NM, AR for sure, OH and CO, maybe. Clinton is loving the attention and the ability to campaign again.

Brilliant move by Kerry. I think Clinton's negatives have gone down from 2000 and he doesn't excite conservatives or moderates as much as he used to back in the 1990s and 2000. Gore and Clark are out in force in FL too. I think Kerry will carry the big three (PA, OH and FL) and Bush may get CO IA WI and AR, but it won't matter.

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