Is it over yet?

A Marist Inst. poll, conducted 11/11-13, surveyed 711 "interested" Dem primary voters; margin of error +/- 4%. Subsample: 447 likely voters; +/- 5% (release, 11/17). Note: all results are w/leaners. The demo breakdowns are among the entire sample, not the LVs.

2nd
Dem Primary Matchup LVs RVs 9/03 Dem Ind Men Wom 18-44 45+ Choice
Howard Dean 44% 40% 35% 38% 44% 39% 41% 40% 42% 20%
John Kerry 23 25 22 28 21 25 25 26 24 22
John Edwards 7 7 4 7 6 8 6 6 7 9
Joe Lieberman 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 8 6 11
Dick Gephardt 6 6 3 6 5 7 5 4 7 10
Wesley Clark 3 4 11 3 5 4 4 4 4 11
Dennis Kucinich 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 2 3
Al Sharpton 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Carol Moseley Braun 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
DK/Other 7 9 16 10 8 6 11 9 7 12

Describe Your Level Of Support For Your Candidate (LVs)
Dean Kerry
Among LVs Supporters Supporters
Strongly Support 46% 54% 38%
Somewhat Support 32 31 38
Might Vote Differently 21 14 23

Has The Campaign Focused Mainly On...
Candidates Talking Issues 54%
Candidates Attacking Each Other 39

Have You Seen/Met Any Of The WH Dems In Person
RVs LVs
Yes 19% 24%
No 81 76

Which One Of The Following Is Most Important To You
In Deciding Whom To Support All Dean Kerry
LVs Supporters Supporters
Is Closer To You On Issues 25% 42% 22%
Can Beat Bush In Nov. 21 49 25
Has Values Like Your Own 20 38 22
Stands Up For What They Believe In 18 38 30
Has Experience To Be POTUS 8 25 36
Is Not A Typical Politician 6 49 23

Which Of These Issues Are You Most Interested
In Hearing About During The Campaign
Domestic Issues Like Health Care/Educa. 49%
Economy 27
Iraq 13
Homeland Security 5
War Against Terrorism 4

Are You More Likely To Vote For A Candidate Who...
All Dean Kerry
LVs Supporters Supporters
Support The War With Iraq 35% 28% 34%
Opposed The War With Iraq 56 51 20
Unsure 9

UNH Poll Got Lots More Local Promotion
A Univ. of NH poll, conducted 11/6-13 for WMUR, surveyed 445 likely Dem primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.6% (release, 11/14).

Dem Primary Matchup Now 10/03 7/03 2ndChoice Fav/Unfav
Dean 38% 30% 16% 17% 75%/12%
Kerry 16 17 18 21 68 /20
Clark 5 10 3 14 45 /21
Edwards 5 5 2 11 48 /16
Lieberman 4 6 11 11 48 /33
Gephardt 3 5 3 10 51 /25
Kucinich 1 3 0 23 /22
Sharpton 0 1 1 13 /56
Braun 0 1 1 26 /21
DK/Other 17 20 45

The 2nd Choice Picks By Candidate
--Among Those Who's 1st Choice---
Dean Kerry Clark Edwards Lieb Gep
Dean -- 39% 50% 38% 5% 17%
Kerry 30% -- 18 14 37 0
Clark 17 15 -- 10 5 8
Edwards 12 3 9 -- 26 42
Lieberman 7 15 9 24 -- 33
Gephardt 13 7 9 5 11 --

Regardless Of Who You Like, Who Will Win The NH Primary
Now 10/03
Dean 61% 51%
Kerry 14 12
Clark 2 5
Lieberman 2 2
Gephardt 1 4
Edwards 1 1
DK 19 23

Electability Over Issues
PoliticsNH.com's Pindell reports, A dozen interviews with "undecided" NH Dem voters in the past week "showed a growing pattern away from concern over how candidates stood on the issues like the economy and the Iraq war to the candidate's ability to defeat" Pres. Bush in '04. It is part of a "maturing process of the primary," where the concerns of "everyday" Dems "begin to lead the discussion over activists representing certain groups wanting to hear positions on specific issues." Electability is "an issue very prevalent" to NH Dems, who "notice their entire" cong. delegation and statehouse are dominated by GOPers. This shift "may begin to explain" why campaign arguments, especially by Dean and Kerry, "all seem to center around the electability component."
A 11/14 UNH poll showed a "larger number of voters find themselves undecided," while campaigns "are increasing their door knocking effects to levels not seen before this election cycle" and Dean's lead grows.

Yet at the same time, Clark supporters spoke to over 8k NHities and found out that +95% are still undecided-- a much larger, abeit perhaps unscientific sample than these polls. So which one is wrong? Is it over, or has it just begun? My bet, a bit of both. I think people have chosen Dean because he offered the best critique of Bush and most exciting, energenic campaign. Clark stumbled out of the gate, Kerry has dug himself in a huge hole, Lieberman is standing in quicksand (he is sinking by the minute), Gephardt never really bothered, and Edwards' bus is spinning its wheels. Besides all that money/gas, itsn't moving. They could still move away from Dean like the plauge.

It still remains that NH is a must win for Dean and Kerry. Clark has to do well to show that he is for real after a bad start and lost possibilities. SC is a must win for Edwards, and possibly Clark. OK and or DE is a must win for Lieberman, because he has wrote off almost every other state. Gephardt has to win IA 0f course but also MO and MI to stay viable. Some Dems are hoping that Kerry and Gephardt be the next Max Cleland (no, not they get compared to Saddam and Osama): that they jump on top of the hand genade known as Dean and aborb the blow so that other campaigns, particularly in the House and Senate in the South can be viable. If they do it sucessfully, look for a President Clark or Edwards to appoint Gephardt the sec. of Labor and Kerry to be a point man in the senate.

Meanwhile, Clark is in the news: his campaign expects to rake in no less than $12 million by the end of year, it seems to be the time to start showing everyone the money with their New Hampshire media buy of $1.1 million for two months. Reaching out to voters who very well may not have heard of him, odds are good that your average New Hampshire TV watcher may get hit with a slick look at the general’s military credentials. And South Carolina and Arizona ads buys are not far behind.

Steve Bouchard, New Hampshire state director expects to be opening at least four more regional offices around the state in the next 10 days and are looking for a few more after that. Also, they are expecting the campaign-proclaimed “Student Invasion” this weekend where college students from a number of other states head to New Hampshire to help get the word out door to door.