4th Quarter Thoughts

Well, the money for the fourth quarter is pouring in for Presidential Candidates and it just confirms what we already know:

1. Dean is leading
   
2. Kerry is toast
   
3. Gephardt's back virtue of his position in Iowa
   
4. Clark is becoming the no. 2 behind Dean
   
5. Lieberman and Edwards are like those NFL teams that needed help to make a wildcard spot
   
6. Kucinich is being kept afloat by liberal Democrats worried about the Nader factor

Dean, according to the rumors they have been spreading, has $14 million with another $400,000 coming in tonight at their Gore/Dean house party/phone-a-thon. In a statement to supporters yesterday, Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi offered a new plea for more funds, saying: "Wes Clark and other candidates are waiting for us in South Carolina and Arizona and the five other states that come on February 3d. All their money together is aimed at stopping our campaign, even as we need to focus on Washington state and Michigan and the other races beyond -- and George Bush himself in the general election." All of this is of course true, assuming they make it that far.

Meanwhile, Clark has $10-12 million and will get $3.7 Million in matching funds coming in January, the most of any candidate, and much more in February for this 4th Q. Sounds like he has about 3/4th of Dean's CoH (cash on hand, AKA money left over after spending) even though he didn't start until September 17th.

Geppy has close to $6.3 million this quarter, which is amazing considering he looked like flotsam earlier in the year. Slow and Steady just might win this race. Their burn rate has slowed significantly.

Kerry has borrowed $6 million from his Beacon Hill mansion and has said nothing about how much he has raised. Sounds like Kerry is coming up very short. When asked how much, his campaign said this about Howard Dean "We're going to make him spend it all"

Kerry is going to do a two-stage Alamo, hoping for a strong 2nd or 3rd in Iowa and then a miracle in NH. But after he flops, he will be out by the end of January, having spent all his money and credibility up.

So who does he endorse? He has famously bad instincts politically (see War Resolution votes), almost as bad as Lieberman (see Department of Homeland Security, 2002 elections). If Gephardt wins Iowa, maybe he will be tempted to prop up Gep, not realizing that now is Clark's turn to take a hammer at Dean. Personally I would be surprised but not shocked if he got behind Dean, which could sink Dean right there ;) poor Kerry.

Lieberman had an uptick in fundraising since Gore's announcement but it is mostly sympathy cash. I would be surprised if he got better than 4th in NH. Edwards, haven't heard from his folks in a while and my feeling is, no news is bad news. The jig is up.

Kucinich is closing in on 1.7 million for this Quarter. Not much, but a lot more than the other jokesters. Hey he might even beat out Kerry, Edwards, or Lieberman in cash raised this Quarter, and boy wouldn't that spell their doom?!

As for the rest, they had to borrow a quarter to call some one who cares.