Wednesday, December 17, 2003

And now for some analysis

In short, dispite the questionable methods of this polling firm, I think it shows that it is increasingly become a two-man race between Howard Dean and Wesley Clark. And really, if I had told anyone that this time last year, they would have said "Who?" and then laughed in my face after I explained who they were.

Remember how everyone wanted some McCain magic in the primary, they wanted to compare themselves to and snuggle up with ol' Johnny? Well this quote tells you who it won't be: Dean. "I would feel some sense of confidence about picking up every one of them if Governor Dean heads the ticket." -- John McCain, on the open Southern SEN seats, "Hardball," 12/16.

McCain has a pretty good sense of what it takes to win in the south, after all Bush creamed him there.

The ideal senerio for Clark is a narrow Dean win in IA, knocking out Gephardt but leaving folks dissipointed about Dean, and then a sneak attack at second in NH, at around 15-20+% Clark will have gone from 3% in the summer to 20% by January. Pretty amazing, "pretty Comeback Kid" like. Then on to 2/3 states. If he can win most of them-- OK SC are musts-- and finish a strong second in the others...it is a Clark vs. Dean show down for the next rounds up to super Tuesday. Kerry, Edwards, and Gephardt (and Lieberman) folks will break toward Clark mostly, since the only reason most of them supported their guy was A winnability and B anti-Deanism, especially Kerry and Gephardt folks since they will be mad at Dean for beating their guy.

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