Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Close, but no cheese

unexpectedly, Edwards managed to make the race much closer, losing to Kerry by a mere six points (40-34). Edwards got so close due to his recent trend of attracting independents and cross-over Republicans to vote for him. He could use that as an argument it is he, and not Kerry who can better beat Bush.

"Today the voters of Wisconsin sent a clear message. ... Objects in your rearview mirror may be closer than they appear," said Edwards.. Of course, we didn't get to hear that because Kerry came out within minutes of Edwards to steal his free TV time; smart jerk.

Meanwhile Dean (18%) is going to "suspend campaign operations" but let people waste their vote for him. I guess Howard People-Power generator needs some repairs.

With Dean out, can Edwards get enough ABKBNB (anybody but Kerry but not Bush) voters to his side by Super Tuesday? Sure he might win Georgia, but he needs to win some industrial rust-belt states with his anti-NAFTA contrast message against Kerry. Some point to Ohio as a must win, and New York too. In any event, he can't keep coming in second, he needs to win. Right now the score is Kerry 17-Edwards 1-Dean 0 (Clark 1).

Speaking of Clark, one guy who endorsed him won. That's right, ex-KY AG and Gov candidate Ben "Happy" Chandler won in a virtual landslide in a GOP-ish district against Sen. Mitch McConnell proxy Kerr. This state is supposed to be a bellwether. Much like 2003 looked good for Bush with a GOP Gov win, this bodes well for Democrats looking to win back the White House and the Congress.

98 percent of districts reporting:

Chandler (D): 54.6
Kerr (R): 43.6

This race was big for my BOP friends in a way, since it proves the power of the internet, as Josh Marshall says. However, it has become clear that the internet is the best way for Democrats to raise money not win elections. Chandler spent $2,000 on internet ads on places like DailyKos and TalkingPointsMemo, and got $100,000 from it; that's a really good return. Democratic House Candidates from all over are now already copying the model to make their competitive races even better with small (>$100) contributions from folks online.

We have two more very winnable special elections for the House coming up. SD's seat in June, and LA 3 around Easter. Both of which, I predict, we will win. That's three less seats we have to worry about (or worry less about) in the steep uphill climb to retake control of congress. Maybe Dean can be useful after all, in campaigning/raising money for all these would be congressmen/women. Send Joe Trippi to run the CO Senate race for Mike Miles, who is running a Trippi style campaign out there vs. Ben Nighthorse Campbell.

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