Sunday, August 01, 2004

This is the last time, I swear

This week (July 31st-August 7th) I will be in the Sierra Nevadas doing some R & R at a Stanford Alumni Camp South of Lake Tahoe.

There are no TVs, and as far as I can tell, my cell phone can't pick up a signal (maybe in the middle of the lake will work).

This morning I got up at 7 am PST to row a skull for 20 minutes. Even though I was one of the last ones out, the water was still pretty glassy and you could still imagine it was just you, the water and the sun. Usually, I am not a morning person but this camp's clock goes by the sun in a sense, and it really energized me except for the big headache I have from not much sleep. An army of ants has decided to make Christina and my bedroom their base camp. So far, 10-15 were KIA by yours truly, but they keep on coming.

I still enjoy some parts of the camp, which I have gone to every summer on and off for two decades, but it is starting to get old. I outgrew the kids groups about 9 years ago and I am not especially close with campers of my age group, who are coming less and less anyway. This is the last year I will be here, I promise and this time I really mean it. Law school and the law will become my life for at least the next three years and after that, I really shouldn't be going camp with my parents when I am nearing thirty.

From reading BOPnews and watching my fair share of C-SPAN, I think Kerry and the Democrats had a pretty good week. The Daily Show hit the nail on the head with their Mockumentary of Kerry: he was the least objectionable candidate to everyone in the party. Or to put in Current Events SAT-style

Kerry:Dem Nominee::WMDs:rationale for going to war with Iraq

My two Johns will go dark this month and the 527s will try to keep pace with Bu$hCo. I have been reading the Cook Report and he makes some pretty good points that my nervous nelly Democratic friends should pay attention to: incumbants that went on to win had high approval ratings than GWB but ones that went on to lose had lower ratings. You shouldn't be tied if you have spent $150M+ attacking the other guy. Plus, if is 45-45-3-2 (bush, kerry, nader, undecided), then it really is 45.3-47-1.6, since usually at least two-thirds of undecideds break towards the challenger (as Charlie Cook says, if they are undecided it means they have decided not to support Bush but haven't decided whether to vote for the other two) and Nader's 3% is highly over inflated given that the overwhelming majority of his 2000 supporters will vote for Kerry, if at all (and that Nader won't be on every state's ballot).

In sum, I am cautiously optimistic about Kerry and the Democrats in general. It seems like they finally have their sh@t together, so to speak.

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