Turning Point: Clark's in 2nd in NH
I know I had said with each passing day, Kerry sinks and Clark rises, but now it is offical:
WH '04 Dem Primary Matchup
1/4-6 1/3-5 1/2-4 1/1-3 12/31-1/2 12/30-1/1 12/31-29
Dean 36% 37% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37%
Clark 16 14 12 12 13 13 13
Kerry 13 14 14 14 14 15 16
Lieberman 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
Gephardt 6 6 6 6 5 5 6
Edwards 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Kucinich 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
Braun - - - - - - -
Sharpton - - - - - - -
Undec. 17 16 17 16 18 19 16
Pollster Dick Bennett: "Clark's strength remains among men age 45 and older and he has a new television ad running in New Hampshire that gained very favorable playback from women on Monday. If the trend to Clark continues and he is able to improve among women age 45 and older, he will be alone in second place." Bennett notes "Clark was in front of Kerry" by 4 points in 1/4 polling, and by 6 points on 1/5 (release, 1/7).
Kerry hopes that second place in IA will resurrect him in NH. Fat chance. At best, he would get 2nd place. Dean's 35-40% is pretty solid, but the question is, what part of Kerry's 13 points is solid? Could JFK come up with only 10%? Although Dean's lead is still huge (20 points) I think Clark can chip into that lead. The media are chomping at the bit for another guy to write about.
Boston Globe's Lehigh writes, A "sense of skittishness" about Howard Dean is "beginning to stir" in NH. Whether that "doubt freshens" to a "gaffe-driven gust" or is "merely an evanescent breeze of unease" remains to be seen, but "creeping disquiet" Dean came up "often" in conversations with more than "three-dozen voters" on 1/2 and 1/5.
The "misgivings don't appear strong enough" to "deprive" Dean of a NH win. But they do "raise the prospect" of a "strong second place" finish for another candidate. The two candidates voters are "looking most closely at" as "Dean alternatives" -- John Kerry and Wesley Clark -- have "very different ideas" about how to "contest" NH.
Clark has a "clearer sense" of NH "momentum," drawing "large crowds" at events. His campaign thinks he can "win" by "focusing like a laser" on NH. He's now in the "midst" of an "11-day stay," and he plans to come back in "midmonth" and "remain" through the 1/27 primary (1/7).
Wednesday, January 07, 2004
now there's proof
The secret is out, I am a Clark supporter. Here's the picture on the Clark event finder. I am the tool not looking straight into the General's eyes. But at least I figured out where the camera was.
After you are done with that, see how much you would save under Clark's tax plan. It is a pretty clear, simple but powerful plan, offering tax cuts for most and eleminating taxes for 34 million Americans.
The secret is out, I am a Clark supporter. Here's the picture on the Clark event finder. I am the tool not looking straight into the General's eyes. But at least I figured out where the camera was.
After you are done with that, see how much you would save under Clark's tax plan. It is a pretty clear, simple but powerful plan, offering tax cuts for most and eleminating taxes for 34 million Americans.
Tuesday, January 06, 2004
Dean's boo-boo
Just a week ago, Howard Dean was complaining that Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe wasn't doing enough to protect him from the critisim of his rivals. Well one rival who has stayed above the fray and has been very diplomatic when talking about his fellow Democratic Party candidates is now entering Dean's crosshairs apparently.
The Arizona Republic has a story where some reporters by mistake were allowed to listen in on an internal Dean campaign conference call about the next strategy the Dean campaign should use. A quote from the article:
"Another staffer indicated that in a survey of voters Monday by telephone, people expressed concern that "this guy (Dean) is indecisive" and Bradley, a former Hall of Fame player in the National Basketball Association and a three-term senator from New Jersey, could help counter that.
"The Bradley message could be, like, (Dean) knew where he stood on the war, is still a Democrat, takes . . . positions, blah, blah, blah," the staffer said.
The next day, the speaker said, "surrogates" for Dean, both local and national, could "then hit Clark on the flip side of the argument: that he's indecisive, didn't know what party he's with, doesn't know his position on the war," she said.
The Clark campaign has decided to respond with the following:
Yesterday, the Dean campaign inadvertently revealed to reporters its secret strategy to discredit General Clark. The strategy was reported in today's Arizona Republic.
As the Republic reports, the Dean camp plans to use Bill Bradley's endorsement to counter the perception among New Hampshire voters - apparently evident in the Dean polling - that Governor Dean is "indecisive," and they plan to use both former Senator Bradley and other surrogates to attack General Clark.
Clark Campaign Communications Director Matt Bennett responded to this report:
"The Dean camp's secret back-room plotting to have Bill Bradley and others attack Wes Clark isn't a bit surprising. Governor Dean seems to like others to do his heavy lifting - just last week Howard Dean asked Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe to protect him from the criticisms of his rivals. The fundamental difference between Governor Dean and General Clark is that Howard Dean is a politician, and Wes Clark is a leader."
"Wes Clark has run a war, making life and death decisions every day. If the Dean Campaign wants to have a debate about decisiveness, we're ready."
Just a week ago, Howard Dean was complaining that Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe wasn't doing enough to protect him from the critisim of his rivals. Well one rival who has stayed above the fray and has been very diplomatic when talking about his fellow Democratic Party candidates is now entering Dean's crosshairs apparently.
The Arizona Republic has a story where some reporters by mistake were allowed to listen in on an internal Dean campaign conference call about the next strategy the Dean campaign should use. A quote from the article:
"Another staffer indicated that in a survey of voters Monday by telephone, people expressed concern that "this guy (Dean) is indecisive" and Bradley, a former Hall of Fame player in the National Basketball Association and a three-term senator from New Jersey, could help counter that.
"The Bradley message could be, like, (Dean) knew where he stood on the war, is still a Democrat, takes . . . positions, blah, blah, blah," the staffer said.
The next day, the speaker said, "surrogates" for Dean, both local and national, could "then hit Clark on the flip side of the argument: that he's indecisive, didn't know what party he's with, doesn't know his position on the war," she said.
The Clark campaign has decided to respond with the following:
Yesterday, the Dean campaign inadvertently revealed to reporters its secret strategy to discredit General Clark. The strategy was reported in today's Arizona Republic.
As the Republic reports, the Dean camp plans to use Bill Bradley's endorsement to counter the perception among New Hampshire voters - apparently evident in the Dean polling - that Governor Dean is "indecisive," and they plan to use both former Senator Bradley and other surrogates to attack General Clark.
Clark Campaign Communications Director Matt Bennett responded to this report:
"The Dean camp's secret back-room plotting to have Bill Bradley and others attack Wes Clark isn't a bit surprising. Governor Dean seems to like others to do his heavy lifting - just last week Howard Dean asked Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe to protect him from the criticisms of his rivals. The fundamental difference between Governor Dean and General Clark is that Howard Dean is a politician, and Wes Clark is a leader."
"Wes Clark has run a war, making life and death decisions every day. If the Dean Campaign wants to have a debate about decisiveness, we're ready."
Taking the flag back
Clark, when asked if his plan allows low-income Americans to benefit from gov't without paying taxes: "No, because I don't think that's the correct syllogism. I will tell you that people from poorer families are paying for the cost of the war because if you look at who's fighting it, our armed forces is made up disproportionately of people from the least advantaged families in America. They're paying for it with their sons and daughters, with their relatives, their brothers and sisters who are over there fighting, while by and large, the wealthiest families do not have their own sons and daughters engaged in this fight. So, don't ever make the argument that the poorer people in America aren't contributing to this country when they don't pay these income taxes" ("Big Story," FNC, 1/5).
Clark, when asked if his plan allows low-income Americans to benefit from gov't without paying taxes: "No, because I don't think that's the correct syllogism. I will tell you that people from poorer families are paying for the cost of the war because if you look at who's fighting it, our armed forces is made up disproportionately of people from the least advantaged families in America. They're paying for it with their sons and daughters, with their relatives, their brothers and sisters who are over there fighting, while by and large, the wealthiest families do not have their own sons and daughters engaged in this fight. So, don't ever make the argument that the poorer people in America aren't contributing to this country when they don't pay these income taxes" ("Big Story," FNC, 1/5).
Letting air out of the balloon
Last night on Hardball General Clark wasn't asked about his groundbreaking Tax Plan, of course, but about the Clinton Impeachment.
That's so 1998 Chris. I guess the point was to test Clark's Clinton loyalty because Mathews is a Clinton-Love-Hater and thinks this is Clark's only true weakness-- his reliance on Bubba. Sure enough, Clark sort of said Clinton should have been censured instead of impeached and raised the larger point of our allies saying this is bad for America and we lost a year that we could have focused on more important stuff-- like the African Embassy Bombings by Al Queda, our failed attempt to bomb his camps, or domestic issues like health care, taxes, social security, you name it.
While Mathews was rehashing 6 year old hits, his panel noted that not only is Clark emerging as Dean's number one opponnet, but that Dean is already trying to do something about it.
Dean-lover Howard Fineman, who knows so much about the West that in 2000 he got Las Vegas confused with Salt Lake City, said that Dean's folks told him their internal New Hampshire polling has Clark already in second place, even better than the ARG poll I talked about yesterday (Clark doesn't pay for polls because enough people are doing them for free).
Why did they give Newsweek columnist Fineman that tidbit? Why to lessen the media bounce that Clark will get when he "comes out of nowhere" to place a strong second and beats out Kerry.
Assuming Dean out organizes Gephardt (especially if there is a snow storm, Dick is in trouble since his folks aren't as diehard as Dean's) in Iowa and Clark gets 2nd in New Hampshire, we have a two man race. After January 27th there could be no Gephardt, no Kerry (and assuming Kerry gets 3rd in IA and NH, possibly no Edwards either). Soon, we have a race with the first tier of Dean and Clark, second tier of Edwards and Lieberman, 3rd of the rest (look for Carol to give it up soon, no money is left and her goal of respectability has been achieved).
I don't see how Edwards can win South Carolina with two 4th place finishes in the first two, nor do I see Lieberman doing well anywhere but Delaware on February 3rd. Again, Clark is already second in every state save Iowa. Once his ads and staff get in there, he could narrow the gap as more "Washington Democrats" drop out and the "stop-Dean" vote coalesces around Clark.
At most, Dean has about 30-40% of the Democratic party. With 9 people running, that's a landslide. But with two people (plus liberal tokens like Sharpton and Kucinich), 30 or 40% doesn't sound all that good.
Last night on Hardball General Clark wasn't asked about his groundbreaking Tax Plan, of course, but about the Clinton Impeachment.
That's so 1998 Chris. I guess the point was to test Clark's Clinton loyalty because Mathews is a Clinton-Love-Hater and thinks this is Clark's only true weakness-- his reliance on Bubba. Sure enough, Clark sort of said Clinton should have been censured instead of impeached and raised the larger point of our allies saying this is bad for America and we lost a year that we could have focused on more important stuff-- like the African Embassy Bombings by Al Queda, our failed attempt to bomb his camps, or domestic issues like health care, taxes, social security, you name it.
While Mathews was rehashing 6 year old hits, his panel noted that not only is Clark emerging as Dean's number one opponnet, but that Dean is already trying to do something about it.
Dean-lover Howard Fineman, who knows so much about the West that in 2000 he got Las Vegas confused with Salt Lake City, said that Dean's folks told him their internal New Hampshire polling has Clark already in second place, even better than the ARG poll I talked about yesterday (Clark doesn't pay for polls because enough people are doing them for free).
Why did they give Newsweek columnist Fineman that tidbit? Why to lessen the media bounce that Clark will get when he "comes out of nowhere" to place a strong second and beats out Kerry.
Assuming Dean out organizes Gephardt (especially if there is a snow storm, Dick is in trouble since his folks aren't as diehard as Dean's) in Iowa and Clark gets 2nd in New Hampshire, we have a two man race. After January 27th there could be no Gephardt, no Kerry (and assuming Kerry gets 3rd in IA and NH, possibly no Edwards either). Soon, we have a race with the first tier of Dean and Clark, second tier of Edwards and Lieberman, 3rd of the rest (look for Carol to give it up soon, no money is left and her goal of respectability has been achieved).
I don't see how Edwards can win South Carolina with two 4th place finishes in the first two, nor do I see Lieberman doing well anywhere but Delaware on February 3rd. Again, Clark is already second in every state save Iowa. Once his ads and staff get in there, he could narrow the gap as more "Washington Democrats" drop out and the "stop-Dean" vote coalesces around Clark.
At most, Dean has about 30-40% of the Democratic party. With 9 people running, that's a landslide. But with two people (plus liberal tokens like Sharpton and Kucinich), 30 or 40% doesn't sound all that good.
Monday, January 05, 2004
Notes from the field
I was New Hampshire on Saturday, (Derry, Salem, and Londonderry to be exact) and while the weather wasn't that nice, I was able to get a feel for what is going on over there: Clark is gaining ground everyday.
At the Salem "Transfer Station" which sounds like a bus or train stop but is really the local recycling/trash center, 5 intrepid souls camped outside with small Clark posters. Across the street were 3 sad looking Kerry supporters with a 8x10 "New Hampshire for Kerry" sign. They had the superior position, directly facing those leaving the station, while we had a side that faced the main road at a 45 degree angle. One of the staffers with us volunteers and a friend of mine from the Draft movement days called in for a 8x10 of our own, which didn't come for at least 30 minutes. After getting out "honk and waved" by the locals 5-to-1 the Kerry folks trugged back to their car, and even gave us a honk.
In a city like Derry, the local dump is actually the best place to meet people on a Saturday. It is a fairly rural place for Southern New Hampshire right off the Interstate. It is also an area that Clark needs to win to do well in the state, given that independents and republicans live there mostly and all the college towns are locked up by Dean.
We did phone banking too. People were mostly out (or had used caller ID to not answer our calls) but for every negative call "I am republican," or "Stop calling me," we got a Kerry or Dean supporter who was giving Clark another look, or leaning towards Clark.
Then the head of the Derry office, who is also a friend from the Draft days, gave me the latest poll numbers: on the last day of polling, Clark and Kerry were TIED for second place, not just statistically but at 15 points a piece. Every day of the tracking poll, Kerry had gone down at least a point (the two point difference in the published results are due to averaging the results of several days). Dean too, had melted down to 35%.
A realistic goal, I think, is to narrow the gap with Dean to 15 points and come in second. If you think I am giving a overly optimistic and biased view of the scene on the ground, don't take my word for it. Look at the polls, the fundraising and the turnout at events.
"General Clark has begun to fill some rooms. In Nashua it was standing room only in the city hall. While all the other viable candidates attended a debate forum in Iowa, Clark stayed in New Hampshire. Clark looks like a candidate, now. He looks more comfortable, makes jokes easier, and generally looks much smoother than when he signed up in the Secretary of State's office to run in New Hampshire's primary. When he signed up it was hard to see him becoming very formidable. But the guy has been a quick study, and his operation has begun to look viable.
Don't be surprised if it quickly becomes a Dean/Clark race. " -NHpolitics.com
The standing room only event referred there was a town hall meeting in Portsmouth while I was in Derry. About 200 people were expected, the event was supposed to be in a church basement. More than 800 showed up. Organizers moved the event to the main sanctuary to accommodate the crowd.
The same day, more than 130 people showed up to a town hall in North Hampton. When the fire marshal closed the doors, 30 supporters were lined up outside and two more buses full of people were on the way. Another Clark staffer summed it up to me, "Something good is happening in New Hampshire."
I was New Hampshire on Saturday, (Derry, Salem, and Londonderry to be exact) and while the weather wasn't that nice, I was able to get a feel for what is going on over there: Clark is gaining ground everyday.
At the Salem "Transfer Station" which sounds like a bus or train stop but is really the local recycling/trash center, 5 intrepid souls camped outside with small Clark posters. Across the street were 3 sad looking Kerry supporters with a 8x10 "New Hampshire for Kerry" sign. They had the superior position, directly facing those leaving the station, while we had a side that faced the main road at a 45 degree angle. One of the staffers with us volunteers and a friend of mine from the Draft movement days called in for a 8x10 of our own, which didn't come for at least 30 minutes. After getting out "honk and waved" by the locals 5-to-1 the Kerry folks trugged back to their car, and even gave us a honk.
In a city like Derry, the local dump is actually the best place to meet people on a Saturday. It is a fairly rural place for Southern New Hampshire right off the Interstate. It is also an area that Clark needs to win to do well in the state, given that independents and republicans live there mostly and all the college towns are locked up by Dean.
We did phone banking too. People were mostly out (or had used caller ID to not answer our calls) but for every negative call "I am republican," or "Stop calling me," we got a Kerry or Dean supporter who was giving Clark another look, or leaning towards Clark.
Then the head of the Derry office, who is also a friend from the Draft days, gave me the latest poll numbers: on the last day of polling, Clark and Kerry were TIED for second place, not just statistically but at 15 points a piece. Every day of the tracking poll, Kerry had gone down at least a point (the two point difference in the published results are due to averaging the results of several days). Dean too, had melted down to 35%.
A realistic goal, I think, is to narrow the gap with Dean to 15 points and come in second. If you think I am giving a overly optimistic and biased view of the scene on the ground, don't take my word for it. Look at the polls, the fundraising and the turnout at events.
"General Clark has begun to fill some rooms. In Nashua it was standing room only in the city hall. While all the other viable candidates attended a debate forum in Iowa, Clark stayed in New Hampshire. Clark looks like a candidate, now. He looks more comfortable, makes jokes easier, and generally looks much smoother than when he signed up in the Secretary of State's office to run in New Hampshire's primary. When he signed up it was hard to see him becoming very formidable. But the guy has been a quick study, and his operation has begun to look viable.
Don't be surprised if it quickly becomes a Dean/Clark race. " -NHpolitics.com
The standing room only event referred there was a town hall meeting in Portsmouth while I was in Derry. About 200 people were expected, the event was supposed to be in a church basement. More than 800 showed up. Organizers moved the event to the main sanctuary to accommodate the crowd.
The same day, more than 130 people showed up to a town hall in North Hampton. When the fire marshal closed the doors, 30 supporters were lined up outside and two more buses full of people were on the way. Another Clark staffer summed it up to me, "Something good is happening in New Hampshire."
Friday, January 02, 2004
Money y Mano
Some say who cares about how much money people raise, it is about how they stand on the issues. Of course, no one will hear about how they stand on the issues if they don't have money. That's because, unlike you and I, most people don't care about this stuff. Most people won't vote in the primaries, and the half of all elidgible voters who vote in the general election don't decide until the fall. So free coverage and paid coverage are the way to go. NH Union Leader looks at the Race nicely for everyone though.
On the other hand, Clark got free coverage based on doing stuff for his paid coverage, whereas Kerry got coverage for his failing of getting paid coverage. "After relentless fund-raising in his late-entry presidential campaign, retired Army general Wesley K. Clark raised between $10.4 million and $11.1 million in the final quarter of 2003 and will be eligible for up to $6 million in federal matching funds," his staff told the Globe in a fundraising total story with Clark as the headline, not Dean or Kerry.
Right along with what I said yesterday "Senator John F. Kerry, who recently loaned $6.4 million to his campaign, raised only $2.5 million in the fourth quarter." Meanwhile, Clark has raised $20M for the year, and he started in late September. This means he passed Lieberman (the supposed money raiser), Gephardt (Mr. Union $), Edwards (fresh face Clinton Jr), and the jokesters, who all had 12 months to do this. And also keep in mind, Clark spent a month or two screwing up.
Clark has $6M CoH, but he "has already paid for much of his January television advertising in New Hampshire, and his campaign expects to reach the spending caps in New Hampshire. He is also airing ads in South Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arizona, and North Dakota, and plans to advertise soon in Virginia and Wisconsin." Another $4M is coming in via fundraising next quarter, and another $6+ M in matching funds in January and February. "Aides say they expect Clark will be able to spend $25 million through Feb. 3."
According to the Post's Jim VandeHei, "Clark is the only candidate moving up in New Hampshire, according to public polls and internal surveys by two rival campaigns, though he trails Dean and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.). If Clark can overtake Kerry, the retired general could storm into the seven states holding votes on Feb. 3 with significant momentum. With more money than many of his rivals, Clark is planning a sustained media campaign in South Carolina, Tennessee, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arizona for four weeks until those states vote, a top adviser said. The campaign is also planning to buy television airtime in Wisconsin and Virginia. Dean is the only other candidate advertising on television in so many states."
If you add the $3.7 million plus the $11.1 million, you get pretty close to the $15+ Million Dean raised. Also, there is no CoH statement left on Dean's campaign, who knows how much money they are going to spend on making sure they win Iowa.
All this means while Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards are trying to get something going in Iowa, Clark will free to campaign in New Hampshire (about 2 weeks worth of fun). Granite Staters crave all that attention. My bet: look for Clark to move up to second at around 15-20%. Kerry will slip to 10% and Dean will get 35-40%. (see latest tracking poll numbers of NH here) By February 2nd, Clark might have more CoH for all those states than Dean, and if Dean does win both NH and IA, he will be in some serious trouble.
"What the fund-raising figures show is that there are only two candidates who have the resources to win the nomination, and that is Howard Dean and Wesley Clark" said Clark strategist Chris Lehane [who got fired by Kerry and used to work for Gore in 2000], citing both candidates' fund-raising success and showings in early polls. "The empirical data fit the assertion that this has boiled down to a two-person race." For once, I agree with him. And so does Will Lester of AP. The Daily Kos, a Dean supporter and liberal-bastion blog, also sees it as a two man race. He thinks Clark's "I'm the only electible guy of the two of us" strategy is bad for the party.
"Of course, Clark has had the good fortune of having Dean in the race. The general has slipped in mostly under the radar while everyone else trains their guns on the frontrunner.
Look for that to change as the others, seeing Dean far ahead, look to outlast the rest of the pack (and thus consolidate the hypothetical "anti-Dean" bloc).
Gep is locked into a tight battle against Dean for Iowa, so look for Gep to keep hammering Dean. But Lieberman, Kerry, and (perhaps most of all) Edwards all need to knock Clark down a peg or two. It's too late for them, really, but they'll try anyway. "
In Clark's words: "If you are sick, hire a doctor; if you have legal trouble, hire a lawyer; and if your country is going in the wrong direction, you need a leader."
The influential Times collumnist Paul Krugman also sees it as a Dean-Clark race, but decides to tack on a comparison between Lieberman's Dean-bashing to the right to Nader's Gore-bashing to the left.
In Clark's words: "If you are sick, hire a doctor; if you have legal trouble, hire a lawyer; and if your country is going in the wrong direction, you need a leader."
In the New Year, look for more "Dean's actually not that liberal" stories that might hurt him in the short term but might help him against potential Rove attacks, assuming he wins the nomination. The LA Times finds Environmentalists in Vermont that hate Dean.
Happy New Year everyone. My New Year's resolution: get fit and get into law school and get Wes Clark in the White House. What's yours?
Some say who cares about how much money people raise, it is about how they stand on the issues. Of course, no one will hear about how they stand on the issues if they don't have money. That's because, unlike you and I, most people don't care about this stuff. Most people won't vote in the primaries, and the half of all elidgible voters who vote in the general election don't decide until the fall. So free coverage and paid coverage are the way to go. NH Union Leader looks at the Race nicely for everyone though.
On the other hand, Clark got free coverage based on doing stuff for his paid coverage, whereas Kerry got coverage for his failing of getting paid coverage. "After relentless fund-raising in his late-entry presidential campaign, retired Army general Wesley K. Clark raised between $10.4 million and $11.1 million in the final quarter of 2003 and will be eligible for up to $6 million in federal matching funds," his staff told the Globe in a fundraising total story with Clark as the headline, not Dean or Kerry.
Right along with what I said yesterday "Senator John F. Kerry, who recently loaned $6.4 million to his campaign, raised only $2.5 million in the fourth quarter." Meanwhile, Clark has raised $20M for the year, and he started in late September. This means he passed Lieberman (the supposed money raiser), Gephardt (Mr. Union $), Edwards (fresh face Clinton Jr), and the jokesters, who all had 12 months to do this. And also keep in mind, Clark spent a month or two screwing up.
Clark has $6M CoH, but he "has already paid for much of his January television advertising in New Hampshire, and his campaign expects to reach the spending caps in New Hampshire. He is also airing ads in South Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arizona, and North Dakota, and plans to advertise soon in Virginia and Wisconsin." Another $4M is coming in via fundraising next quarter, and another $6+ M in matching funds in January and February. "Aides say they expect Clark will be able to spend $25 million through Feb. 3."
According to the Post's Jim VandeHei, "Clark is the only candidate moving up in New Hampshire, according to public polls and internal surveys by two rival campaigns, though he trails Dean and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.). If Clark can overtake Kerry, the retired general could storm into the seven states holding votes on Feb. 3 with significant momentum. With more money than many of his rivals, Clark is planning a sustained media campaign in South Carolina, Tennessee, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arizona for four weeks until those states vote, a top adviser said. The campaign is also planning to buy television airtime in Wisconsin and Virginia. Dean is the only other candidate advertising on television in so many states."
If you add the $3.7 million plus the $11.1 million, you get pretty close to the $15+ Million Dean raised. Also, there is no CoH statement left on Dean's campaign, who knows how much money they are going to spend on making sure they win Iowa.
All this means while Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards are trying to get something going in Iowa, Clark will free to campaign in New Hampshire (about 2 weeks worth of fun). Granite Staters crave all that attention. My bet: look for Clark to move up to second at around 15-20%. Kerry will slip to 10% and Dean will get 35-40%. (see latest tracking poll numbers of NH here) By February 2nd, Clark might have more CoH for all those states than Dean, and if Dean does win both NH and IA, he will be in some serious trouble.
"What the fund-raising figures show is that there are only two candidates who have the resources to win the nomination, and that is Howard Dean and Wesley Clark" said Clark strategist Chris Lehane [who got fired by Kerry and used to work for Gore in 2000], citing both candidates' fund-raising success and showings in early polls. "The empirical data fit the assertion that this has boiled down to a two-person race." For once, I agree with him. And so does Will Lester of AP. The Daily Kos, a Dean supporter and liberal-bastion blog, also sees it as a two man race. He thinks Clark's "I'm the only electible guy of the two of us" strategy is bad for the party.
"Of course, Clark has had the good fortune of having Dean in the race. The general has slipped in mostly under the radar while everyone else trains their guns on the frontrunner.
Look for that to change as the others, seeing Dean far ahead, look to outlast the rest of the pack (and thus consolidate the hypothetical "anti-Dean" bloc).
Gep is locked into a tight battle against Dean for Iowa, so look for Gep to keep hammering Dean. But Lieberman, Kerry, and (perhaps most of all) Edwards all need to knock Clark down a peg or two. It's too late for them, really, but they'll try anyway. "
In Clark's words: "If you are sick, hire a doctor; if you have legal trouble, hire a lawyer; and if your country is going in the wrong direction, you need a leader."
The influential Times collumnist Paul Krugman also sees it as a Dean-Clark race, but decides to tack on a comparison between Lieberman's Dean-bashing to the right to Nader's Gore-bashing to the left.
In Clark's words: "If you are sick, hire a doctor; if you have legal trouble, hire a lawyer; and if your country is going in the wrong direction, you need a leader."
In the New Year, look for more "Dean's actually not that liberal" stories that might hurt him in the short term but might help him against potential Rove attacks, assuming he wins the nomination. The LA Times finds Environmentalists in Vermont that hate Dean.
Happy New Year everyone. My New Year's resolution: get fit and get into law school and get Wes Clark in the White House. What's yours?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
