the fundamental problem with Bush foreign policy

If you thought this would be a post about how dumb invading Iraq was, sorry, that is overplayed and everyone pretty much knows it by now. What I wish to discuss is how the Bush foreign policy team doesn't just have pre-9/11 thinking but pre-1989 thinking.

The reaction to the 9/11 attacks by the Bush team was one that Reagan would have had, not because Bush is like Reagan, but because Reagan fought against Nation-States, specifically the USSR (and Granada and Panama). The Nation-State is so 20th Century. Al-Qaeda is focused on an ethno-religious identity-- the Wahabist, who is usually Arab. Although the Fillipinos are heavily Muslim, most of Al-Qaeda's most active recruits are Arab. The know no country, in fact, these folks are militant preciesely because they are unwanted in their own countries.

Yet Bush and Cheney and Rumsfeld's approach was to take out Afghanistan rather than Al-Qaeda. In reality, they did neither well. Both are back and the country is unstable as ever. Don't get me wrong, I wanted to invade Afghanistan in 1998 when I learned what the Tailban were up to and that is where bin Laden lived (who had killed people in American Embassies in Kenya). But to do it on the cheap outsource the hunting of the actual people that were responsible for 9/11 was criminal negligence.

When they decided to topple Iraq, they ignored the fact that Iraq is a middle eastern Yugoslavia, with competing ethinic groups that don't necessarily get along. Even worse than Yugoslavia, these three groups are also found in other not so stable countries and so the impact is felt more widely. Now because of no post-war planning, not enough troops, no international support, and general bungling by Rummy, we have a ethic war that is making Sarajevo look relatively better everyday.

As Bush drums up for war with Iran in a feable attempt to repeat his 2002 off-year election performance, his people should be made aware that Iran probabbly already has lots of its intelligence people in Iraq right now instigating more violence. The Persians share religious sectarian beliefs with a large portion of the Iraqi people. And Iran is a mountainous country with lots and lots of young men with not much to do. These young people like some parts of American culture, and Bollywood stars, but they don't like Bush and his Bible thumping friends.

And frankly, most of Americans don't anymore either. So don't let yourself be distracted into worrying about Iranian nuclear technology. Sure their leaders are nuts, but their people aren't, and the leaders aren't so nuts as to actually pick a fight with us. But if they are attacked, watch out.