the most endangered incumbent in Utah

...is not Jim Matheson, despite all the happy talk from the state party. It's Chris Cannon. Cannon is ahead 48-28 against John Jacob. Twenty points isn't bad when 77% of voters don't know who you are. A million bucks worth of ads will clear that up.

"We're going to go out on radio, direct mail and possibly some television," Jacob said.
How much might he spend in this face-off between millionaires?
"I don't believe I have that answer," Jacob said. "I'm now closer to $350,000. I'll probably put another $100,000 to $300,000 in. If it takes more, I'll put it in."

I went down to Happy Valley this weekend to get my wife's ring checked, eat at Durango Grill, and see the Di Vinci Code. On our way to the movie theater my wife spotten a Jacobs lawn sign. Jacob has a real shot. Cannon's favorability is only 45% (36% unfav) Jacobs is at 77% approval rating, meaning those who care about immigration know who he is and like him for that one issue. I am not the only who thinks so, check out Roll Call's top ten most vulnerable incumbents (all Republicans by the way). Of course, this doesn't mean the Democrats have a prayer to pick up this seat, but if Cannon has to blow hundreds of thousands on this race, win or lose, that is hundreds of thousands he couldn't donate to vulnerable incumbents in tight Democrat-republican races and hundreds of thousands that could have been raised/donated to other GOP candidates were the party's hold of the seat is under threat.

I won't make much about Cannon being the first on Roll Call's list, because it looks like it is alphabetical.