It doesn't look good

After last night's super primary results are in, I predicting the Democrats will come up short in November.

If you can't beat a lobbyist replacing a guy who took $2.4 Million in bribes from lobbyists, where can you win? Now I think we should take Bob Ney's seat off the board, and Pombo's and Lewis'. Redistricting and idiot voters seem to be too much to overcome. Busby said something stupid, the CA-Gov primaries were turnout depressing, etc. but a loss is a loss. That was our best opportunity with a good candidate and a seemingly good message.

Liberals in the Blogophere think that Tester's big win means that populism works everywhere and that D.C. consultants are dead wrong. Well I agree with them, D.C. consultants are dead wrong. I supported Morrison because of my personal contact with him and my sense that he was a good guy and since he was elected statewide, he would have a better shot. But that was before the adultery scandal, and it was that scandal that sunk Morrison. Tester organized well and had good outside the box ads, but it was Morrison's failings that propped up Tester. As for populism working, well maybe in a state like Montana, but not in any other state I can think of.

Montana is not so ruby red as Liberal bloggers are trying to tell you. It voted for Clinton in 1996 and I suspect a Clark or a Warner or an Edwards could win that state back too if they showed up with Sen. Tester (God willing) and Gov. Schweitzer.

The worst news for Tester:

Now that Tester has triumphed 60 percent to 36 percent, look to national Democrats to lean on him to shake up his campaign and bring in more seasoned professionals and significantly ramp up his fundraising.

Burns came off his win swinging, challenging Tester to lay bare his thoughts on such emotionally charged issues as gay marriage and flag burning.

That means that if Tester does have to hire those idiot DSCC consultants (for love of humanity, don't do it, please) they will make it talk around or ignore gay marriage and flag burning, which Burns thinks will save his Abramoff-owned soul.

Back to my predictions: in the House, 10-15 seat pickup for Democrats, with the lower end being more likely; in the Senate, 2-4 seat pickup for Democrats; in Governors races I see a win in Ohio, Arkansas, Alaska, New York, New Hampshire, Maryland, losses in California (Angelides looks like Buddy Holly with less charisma), Georgia, South Dakota, Florida, Connecticut, and probably Massachusetts (they always manage to screw it up), toss ups in Colorado, Oregon, Illinois, Alabama, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota.