Saturday, September 29, 2007

Becker is crushing Buhler

Today the Deseret News came out with a poll with unsurprising but happy results:
The Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll conducted by Dan Jones & Associates shows that if the Nov. 6 final election were held today, Becker would be favored by 51 percent of Salt Lake City registered voters; Buhler has 33 percent support. Eleven percent didn't know, while 5 percent mentioned someone else.
The survey of 403 registered voters in the city has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.0 percent. So, even within the ranges of the margin of error, Becker still holds a healthy lead.
So if even all 11 percent who are undecided go for Buhler, and we chip in 5 percent for the margin of error, Becker still beats Buhler by 3%. And that doomsday scenario isn't going to happen.

To be over fifty percent already is pretty devastating news in a open seat race for a challenger. If you take Becker's 38.48 and add it to Wilson's 23.46, you get a bit over 62 percent. If you take that number and minus it by the 51 Dan Jones found support Becker, you get a difference of 11.94%...about 1 percent more than the undecided number. So those undecideds could be Wilson supporters who aren't sold on Ralph and/or Christensen supporters, or more likely people who aren't going to vote.

I guess people prefer Dreamers who have big plans for this city rather than Doers who help pass legislation that harms cities and are against Salt Lake City values. So much for that attack line.

1 comment:

zed said...

While polls are important and have their place, Jenny Wilson was the leading candidate for quite some time and she didn't make it past the primaries. I am glad that Becker is leading, however I still feel a commitment to go and help when I can with the campaign because numbers can change so quickly.