Saturday, October 27, 2007

SLC mayor money follows the winner-- Becker

People give money to candidates for three main reasons, which some times overlap. 1) You support them on a personal level (Jim Matheson hit up his East High classmates in his 2000 race) 2) You support them on an ideological level (I gave $100 to Wes Clark in 2003 because I agreed with his views on foreign policy) 3) You think they are going to win (re-)election, and you want to have audience with the person who will shortly be in power (Why Hatch raises millions with no effort).

So when news reports came out that Becker had an amazing two months of fundraising and Buhler not so hot, most people with a brain would say duh! Here's how Buhler spins the bad news
Buhler's campaign has taken in about $144,000 since Aug. 31, bringing his total to $465,000. [Becker has raised $590,000 in his campaign for mayor, including $268,000 in the past two months]

"I'm the underdog in this race, so it's always a little more challenging to raise money," he said. "I feel very gratified for the support I've received, and we're still raising money, of course."
Let's look back at the money race at the beginning of August shall we?
As you can see, Buhler had raised slightly more than Becker had at that point, but also spent more on billboards (and both were behind Jenny and Keith).

And here's what I said two weeks after the primary, when the Tribune was trying to portray this as a neck and neck race. (Now of course, they gave up and endorsed Becker):
Make no mistake about it, Ralph is going to barn storm the entire city with volunteers knocking on doors. He is going to raise money from people looking to make a safe bet without much effort. He is going to be organized and disciplined. And he is going to win the race by 15-20 points.
In another mini-edition of "I called it," here's an excerpt from a Becker campaign press release:
Ralph Becker’s campaign received a big financial boost on Friday [October 19th, 2007], thanks to a phone-a-thon that raised $56,365 in just seven hours.
I am not saying that people that gave during this phone-a-thon or any other in the last two months must be only from type 3, but surely the reason Ralph funding has doubled in three months is because he is cruising in the polls.

1 comment:

jonathan said...

3rd Avenue, however true you may be, you miss an important angle. You state in your last paragraph that a major reason for the Becker boost in money is due in part to the poll number. However, you say that Dave "spins the bad news". Doesnt his spin just reflect what you state there? Of course it would be harder for him to raise money with a bad poll. Would you not think that it would be different if Dave had been ahead in the polls one month ago? I learn one thing from your post 3rd Avenue, both Ralph and Dave had the least amount of money in the primary but yet both passed thorugh fine. What does this mean for the validity of your argument? Money is not always proportional to success in politics. This election will prove closer than any realize.