Thursday, January 03, 2008

prediction meets reality

OK so let's see how I did. First the order of finish. Prediction
DEMOCRATS:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
Reality:
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.58%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.75%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.47%
That brings me to percentages. You can see the real results here are my estimates: "Obama . . . : 35-39%" "Edwards . . . : 30-33% " "Clinton . . . : 27-32%"
Biden hangs around until he finds out that he isn't allowed in the New Hampshire debate, protests, then withdraws and endorses Hillary. Richardson hangs around until Nevada, and when he gets fourth place, he drops out, endorses Obama (hoping for a VP slot) Dodd also drops out shortly after Iowa and maybe even before New Hampshire.

Reality: Biden and Dodd dropped out tonight, as did Gravel. I thought he would stick it out until the bitter end. I guess he finally got his meds. Biden and Dodd ran honorable campaigns, but voters just aren't looking for experience this time around, they want populist change.

Oh and congratulations to the Obama people, especially for truely increasing the number of caucus goers tonight from 124,000 in 2004 to 236,000 in 2008...amazing, especially getting college students to turn out during winter break.


Maybe this TIME cover will be right:

On to the Republicans, which I got more wrong.
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Paul

Reality:
Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 0%
Wow, I knew the polls had Huckabee back up, but I thought Mitt had righted the ship and that his professionals would out organize Huckabee's volunteers and outside groups. Clearly I was wrong. And Thompson came back from the dead with 13%, but I thought his advisors leaked that he would exit unless he got 15% or higher. McCain and the media are going to claim he was tied for 3rd place. Paul was respectable, Giuliani looked like a fool on CNN trying to spin his embarrassing showing. Wolf could bearly hold back the laughter.

Congrats to Mike Huckabee...and Chuck Norris! My wife, a Hillary supporter, really loved Huckabee's speech. I thought it was good too. There wasn't much policy substance in there, short of hints about taxes. Most of it was about feeling us vs. them. Us was the little people who were tired of being told what to do by people in DC and New York. And listening to Barack Obama's speech later in the evening, I was struck by how similar the two were.

Both talked about working with the other side, about the little guy, about DC powerbrokers, and the establishment, and how "they" were wrong and underestimated them. Both spoke in positive hopeful, and unifying terms. Obama talked about health care, education, and the war. Both spoke like ministers. Huckabee is actually an ordained Baptist minister, Obama just sounds like one. It was very effective.

I am off to bed, but boy what an exciting night for this political junkie.

1 comment:

Dan said...

Gravel is still in the race. MSNBC ran misinformation. Check www.gravel2008.us for more details.