Monday, February 04, 2008

digging out Monday

Yesterday, I went up to my parents house to watch the Big Game. Unless you were living under a rock, you know what happened and don't need the Trib's "Cliff Notes." While I was shocked and dissipointed (what happened to the immortal perfection of Brady in the playoffs? It is like the Mannings stole it from him two years running) that my Pats managed to lose, those Giants really deserved it. Anyway, what I was most annoyed with, besides sights of Payton cheering in the luxury box, was being snowed in. My parents live up Emigration Canyon and wasn't planning on spending the night.

Of course my wife wisely forced me to pack an overnight bag before we left, but I wasn't too thorough with it and left a few items at home. Needless to say, I didn't get much sleep and was not thrilled with the prospect of clearing off my car and helping shovel the driveway. I don't know about you, but I am getting really tired of this every other day snow storm we have been having for the last month.

Finally, Dan Jones did a poll on the presidential primaries in Utah. Unlike what most national bloggers thought, I knew Obama would be up (due to his staffing and money comitments in the state)...but not 53-29. Of course, all of the news outlets led with the non-story that Romney was getting a dictator-sized victory in the GOP side (84-4 against McCain). Why bury the lede? Mrs. Clinton had a lead with 50-something percent of the vote just a month or so ago.

While Super Tuesday should be fun to watch across the board, the most interesting part of the night will be when California is called. Obama and Romney seem to be doing some last minute surging, but will it be enough to overcome early voting? If either or both of them win CA, it is going to be the story and overshaddow the delegate count story which is somehow much harder for the press to do (because it involves counting and research?) If Obama wins New Jersey and or Connecticut earlier tomorrow night, we know that California could be close and or Clinton could be in for a long night.

Currently, the expectation is that Clinton and Obama stay close (~100 delegate-advantage for Clinton) and that McCain blows away Romney. But if Cali changes it mind, the whole race could be turned on its head, because Momentum could finally show up in this nomination race on both sides.

I predict another round of record turn out. I saw a poll that said 47-43 people thought the Super Bowl was a bigger story than the elections. The fact that the elections are within the margin of error is amazing for America. This also bodes well for higher turnout in November. We might get back to 1960s levels or something.

1 comment:

Andrew said...

I heard a similar poll on NPR this morning, stating that the Super Bowl was more exciting to Americans than Super Tuesday by 40-37 percent.

That really is jaw-dropping. I've misunderestimated America, apparently.

Tuesday will be fun.