Thursday, May 22, 2008

tighter than a tube sock?

We all knew that Rep. Chris Cannon was liable to be primaried again this year due to the suprisingly strong challenge he got last cycle from a complete nutcase. But will this year's challenger be able to close the deal?
Cannon leads Chaffetz 39 percent to 37 percent among 3rd District voters who said they are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to vote next month, according to a poll conducted by Dan Jones & Associates on May 13-19. Those results are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 7 percent. Nineteen percent were undecided.

However, when Jones culled out only Republican likely 3rd District voters, Cannon leads Chaffetz 49-34 percent. Among those who said they usually vote "strong Republican," Cannon leads 44-33, Jones found.
So Chafetz has to move some voters, and hope/work for a big turnout. But it is do able, after all, Obama did it in Iowa. But here's where things get interesting:
Unlike Matheson, Cannon has never been an overly popular incumbent. And the 2001 redistricting by the GOP-controlled Legislature — clearly aimed at harming Matheson — didn't help out Cannon much either.

Cannon got more Salt Lake County voters in the redistricting, with GOP lawmakers even cutting out the northeastern part of Utah County and giving it to Matheson's 2nd District. Chaffetz actually lives in that small 2nd District slice of Utah County. But a U.S. House member only needs to live in his home state, he does not have to live in his district.

Cannon leads Chaffetz 39-37 percent in Utah County, but Chaffetz leads Cannon 40-36 percent among Salt Lake County registered voters who live in the 3rd District. There are more registered voters in the west-side Salt Lake County area of the 3rd District than there are 3rd District voters in Utah County — a shift that has not meant a great deal in previous elections. But in this primary it may be critical, the poll indicates.
If Caffetz can parlay his work for Gov. Huntsman and being a winning kicker for BYU into votes on the westside, this could be an upset special.

Oh and in case you were wondering, Matheson is crushing Dew 67-20 (Dew gets only 36 percent of the GOP vote, which will surely increase some) while Rob Bishop is soundly beating Morgan Bowen 58-19.

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