final predictions

Utah:
Hatch 60-37 Ashdown
Matheson 63-36 Christensen

SLCo.:
Winder 55-44 Kennard
Gill 49.7-49.3 Miller (expect a recount)
Bradley 52-48 Auger


US House:
PA- 4 seats
CT- 2 seats
NY- 3 seats
IN- 3 seats (net, Julia Carson loses)
KY- 2 seats
NE- 1 seat
KS- 1 seat
CO- 1 seat
NM- 1 seat (Madrid wins)
WY- 1 seat (Trauner wins)
ID- 1 seat (Grant wins)
CA- 1 seat

Senate:
CT: Lamont 51-40 Lieberman (9 for the R)
VA: Webb 55-45 Allen
MD: Cardin 51-49 Steele
MI: Stebenow 53-47 Boshard
MN: Kloblar 55-45 Kennedy
NJ: Menindez 56-44 Kean Jr.
TN: Corker 50.1-49.9 Ford Jr. (recount)
MO: McCaskill 52-48 Talent
MT: Tester 51-49 Burns
[the rest aren't close]

GOV: (only pick ups mentioned)
MA, NY, OH, CO, AR, IA, AK (recount)

James Evans smears again

On the heals of several polls showing Democratic candidate Jim Winder dramatically surging from far behind to far ahead, SLCo GOP party chair James Evans has tried to create a new "scandal."

...James Evans released a video to local media with several clips of Winder leading training sessions for Salt Lake County sheriff's deputies. In the video, Winder makes several inflammatory remarks "unbecoming to the man who wants to be your sheriff," Evans said.
In one clip, Winder said, "I want to be a hero, so I come in from the south side because I want to get there quicker than anybody else so I can give an a-- kicking or maybe shoot some guy if I'm really lucky. No s---."
In several other clips, Winder makes fun of South Salt Lake and Utah Transit Authority officers, as well as dispatchers and other patrol officers.
The video is nearly four minutes long and features a compilation of embarrassing statements Winder made during two separate training sessions that lasted a total of eight hours. Winder said he couldn't comment on the actual statements made in the video since they were clips that could have been taken out of context.

I saw the clips on KSL-TV, and the journalist there was extremely skeptical of Evans' claims. Out of two 4 hour long training sessions, they came up with 4 minutes of segments. Winder told KSL that he often would do role playing, and the clips showed his examples to new Deputies of what not to do.

This, like Evans' charge against Sim Gill, utter crap. Gill, you will recall, failed to properly fill out his disclosure reports--one of 10 candidates to do so (5 Republicans 5 Democrats)--and later fixed his reports. This is an attempt a moral equalizing where the two are not equal. Golfing during work hours is not the same as saying naughty things during training to get through to recruits. Accepting otherwise illegal straw donations from a company that is seeking to contract with your office is not the same as improperly filling out a disclosure form.

Evans in short has no shame. There is no depth he will not go to in hopes to win. What perfidy will he stoop to next? (Sorry my word of the day)

the final local polls show tight races, except Sheriff

Democratic candidate for SLCo Sheriff Dave Winder, who message got some amazingly great news from the Salt Lake Tribune:

Winder, who trailed the sheriff by 30 percentage points one month ago, is favored by 51 percent of county voters compared to 34 percent for Kennard. Fifteen percent are undecided.
...
Winder, a longtime deputy in the sheriff's office, who contends Kennard is out of touch after 16 years on the job.
"Wow," he said about the 17-point advantage in the poll. "Needless to say, I'm very encouraged." The sheriff's race turned personal after stories broke chronicling Kennard's weekday golf habit, according to tallies of the days he plays 18-hole rounds and his scores, which are posted on the Utah Golf Association Web site. Kennard took offense at Winder's suggestion that golf interfered with his job performance, noting he always is available by cell phone, pager or radio and has been called off the course for emergencies.

Winder's slogan? "It's time for a change." Change seems to be the winning message this year all around the country, will it hurt Sim Gill and Jim Bradley, or is this just a pro-Democratic year?

Republican Lohra Miller holds a narrow edge, 36 to 34 percent over Democrat Sim Gill - a statistical dead heat. The poll shows a substantial amount - 26 percent - still are undecided in the election to replace retiring D.A. David Yocom.
In the County Council at-large contest, Democratic incumbent Jim Bradley leads Republican challenger Janice Auger 37 percent to 32 percent, with 27 percent undecided.
The poll, conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 1 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, surveyed 470 voters and has a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Now the race for DA has been tight the whole time, but Bradley had been up by a lot in the September Deseret News/Dan Jones poll. But maybe that is because Auger's "Don't let the 'Grandmother look' fool you." slogan received national attention via TIME magazine.

Mason-Dixon is a pretty reputable polling outfit, and I am glad that the Trib abandoned their previous polling firm that stunk. To me, no body gets Utah polling better than Dan Jones, but this poll is far my recent than the last Dan Jones poll. However, there may be another DJ poll in the field that will come out on Sunday...that is usually what happens. Then there is 48 hours to turns things around for the party that is behind and really Get Out The Vote.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if this purported Democratic wave actually does show up and make Tuesday (and early morning Wednesday) happy times for me. I really get too emotionally involved in politics. I remember how depressed I was for about a week after Kerry lost in 2004. Sure I am a partisan, but I am happy even if Democrats lose if at least turn out stays as high as it did in 2004.

great days for democracy

Yesterday I did not post because I was second-chairing a trial. It was my first real trial where I got to make an opening statement and do direct examination (and redirect and reredirect) and voire dire on jurors. Oh by the way, "I" won.

Anyway, while I was there at the SLCo. government center for the case, I saw huge lines for early voting. This was around noon on a Thursday. I also voted early last Friday (so stop calling me Scott McCoy et al) with my wife and then too there was a pretty serious line for around 4 o'clock. And my sense that this a big turnout is supported by this Deseret News story:

As of Thursday, the state has reported 50,000 votes have been cast.
"As we look at other states that have implemented early voting, this is higher than any other state in terms of percentage, this far, at their first go-around with early voting," said Joe Demma, chief of staff for the state elections office under the direction of Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert. "We're extremely pleased."

People love the convenience of voting on their own time ahead of the election so that it becomes just like going to to grocery store and not something you have to squeeze into a predetermined Tuesday. Political parties love to "bank" their partisans votes early. I love early voting, but I like vote by mail even more.

Voting and registering to vote should be as easy as getting a discount card or a credit card and then shopping online or going to the store to use them. Why is it that Republicans always seem to want to make it harder to vote. The more people vote, the more representative our officials and initiatives will be...the more credibility their decision will later have.

If you win Rove style (50.1%), you have a really small margin of error, next thing you know, you are in the high 30s. And because of this ultra-partisan ultra-divisive way Rove has run the country, Democrats will take back the House and maybe the Senate too. I can't wait until next Tuesday.

embed with the pollsters

not a dimes worth of difference?

Some people say there is no difference between Democrats and Republicans and that state and local races don't matter, it is the big federal races that are important. I say hogwash. How about these apples?

The proposed budget includes $250,000 for the county's small-business loan fund, as well as $20,000 to help build a business technology park in the county.
Corroon also asked for $400,000 to start a child immunization program in the county. The money would pay to immunize 11,000 low-income children under the age of 2 in the county health system. The budget asks for increased staffing levels at the county's after-school program in Kearns.
The green-friendly mayor wants to expand the county's recycling program, and asked for $4.5 million to make the voluntary program a required initiative countywide. The money would be used to place a blue recycling bin on the curb of every home in unincorporated county areas and their contract cities: Herriman, Bluffdale, Taylorsville, Cottonwood Heights, Holladay, Riverton and part of Murray.

How about that? Corroon cleans up the mess that Nancy Workman left in two years, and now wants to get to the progressive stuff he cares about.

The budget also includes money to continue Corroon's efforts to clean up county government. He asked for an associate director for the Administrative Services Department, a division Corroon recently created to provide oversight of several county divisions, such as fleet and personnel. Both divisions have been plagued with scandal over the past few years.

Corroon isn't just recycle bins either, he is law and order. This is something the Sheriff and the DA would get behind:

Corroon also asked to reopen one unit at the jail, which has 64 beds. He also wants to expand substance-abuse treatment programs, as well as make sure inmates are in jail until after their court date.

Of course, Randy Horiuchi wants to cut the jail proposal. All the time, we have people who don't show up to court who were released from jail because they only committed a misdemeanor and there isn't enough room/$ to keep them.

So if you believe as I do, your budget shows your values, then there is quite a lot of difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans in Congress cut taxes for the rich and programs for the poor, while spending pork in their district or for their bribers. Democrats want to increase spending on education and military personnel services. So if you say there is not a dime's difference, take a look at where each party wants your dimes to go.

story of the day

A money quote and picture, what could be better? I was in the Big Apple this weekend for a friend's wedding and got like 10 hours of sleep during the last three days, so excuse the lack of in depth analysis today.

"When investigators opened up the plush doll's skull, they discovered the drug stash [of 4 pounds] inside wrapped in plastic... While Elmo has never previously been linked to narcotics distribution or use, the Sesame Street character appears to have no teeth, which frequently is seen in heavy meth users."



The Smoking Gun.com christened the doll "Hook Me Up Elmo," I call it "Meth on his Mind Elmo"

another sign for Christmas in November?

deseretnews.com | Salt Lake County expands early voting due to high turnout: "The Salt Lake County clerk's office is expanding early voting for the general election.
Due to high turnout, the office is opening this Saturday and next Saturday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. and adding more voting machines."

I hope that everyone who can should go and vote, whether you are Democrat, Republican, Green, Liberarian, Personal Choice or what.

Try out those machines this week while the lines are small. Don't go all Diebold tin-foil-hat on me.

Chairman Waxman gets warmed up on Leavitt

Soon-to-be-Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman found this nugget: "Cabinet secretaries — especially former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt — use too many private planes to travel on government business, which has cost taxpayers $1.5 million since January 2001."
Why is Leavitt taking "19 trips aboard a private jet leased by CDC at a cost of $726,048 in order to promote administration policies"? Can't Leavitt fly coach to pimp privatizing social security and Medicare Part D? Waxman makes an outrageous request:

"If Cabinet secretaries are going to continue to travel across the country in the coming weeks, their travel should be economical and comply fully with federal travel regulations"
...
Waxman and Government Reform Committee Chairman Tom Davis, R-Va., wrote to all the federal agencies in June asking for information on their use of private aircraft.

Waxman also noticed that these trip were four times higher in 2004 to battleground states than in 2001, 2003, and 2005. Former Governor Leavitt, stop using the federal government as tool for the Republican Party. You are a millioniare, use your own damn jet if you want to fly private.

legislative process as a campaign tactic

The Salt Lake Tribune has an interesting scenerio/story that goes something like this

Candidate A: Education is my top issue. I would have scrapped a tax cut in favor of increased funding.
Candidate B: Me, too.
Candidate B: We are in desperate need of health care reform to get coverage to tens of thousands of uninsured Utahns.
Candidate A: I couldn't agree more.
Confused voter: Then why should I vote for you, Candidate A, over Candidate B?
Candidate A: I'm a Republican, and if you want your voice heard at all in Utah, you'd better elect me or you'll be marginalized along with the whole super-minority Democratic Party.
Candidate B: No, you should vote for me because you can't reverse the Legislature's wrong direction by throwing more Republicans into it.

history tells us that almost always, these kind of process arguments don't really matter to voters. Why else would Jim Matheson have been elected in 2000, narrowly won again in 2002, and was relected so overwhelmingly in 2004 (and soon 2006)? Why else would voters choose John Thune over then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle?

I say that voters either like the candidates or they don't. Sometimes when they don't like either, they go with their ideological ally (see New Jersey 2000-06). Sometimes they just want to throw the bumb out, even if the other candidate isn't so great.

While both the GOP and Democratic arguments in this non-hypothetical have merit, it all is really besides the point if you are looking for the message that will get you votes (and fits you). State Republican party officials claim their arguement is working in some SLC districts (where almost all of the Democratic seats are), but I doubt it will pan out.

Voters get that dumping a Daschle will mean less money comes to their state, but they don't get how the voting for Speaker works, who the Speaker is, or even what the Speaker is (let alone who/what the Majority and Minority Whips are).

What does it say about our legislature and American legislative systems in general that in order to get anything done for the people you represent, you have to claim the right party mantle, even if it doesn't fit you? Dr. Joe Jarvis, at least on health care, sounds like he is from Berkley or Cambridge, not a Utah Republican. But part of his argument I assume is that Scott McCoy is a nice guy, but as a Democrat, he can't get anything done.

Claiming every candidate has to be from one party leads to the Soviet system and really runs a roughshod over minority rights. Since Scott McCoy is an openly gay Democrat he is naturally going to be more attuned to minority rights in all aspects, even if he is a rich, educated, white, male. Empathy through experience, that is something being a white male LDS Republican running for office in Utah will never have.

America needs blogs

So for those of you who believe that posting on the internet is just placing words in the ether, here's a story for you:

I have written posts critiquing billboards of local politicans, and their slogans. I also suggested that folks show up to tonight's panel on health care in Utah. Well, at this event was State Senator Scott McCoy and Dr. Joe Jarvis, amoung others. During the reception, I spotted Senator McCoy and shook his hand.

Immediately, he thanked me for the input on my blog on his signs. "Next time, we'll focus group them through you," he said. I assume it was a joke, although it sounded like he agreed with my analysis. We both agreed that "America needs Utah" is the dumbest slogan out there.

That made my night. That, and Hansen's soda. Man that stuff is good.

Care about heath care in Utah?

It seems by looking at the lawnsign war, and the Salt Lake Tribune endorsement of Joseph Q. ("Dr. Joe") Jarvis, that my local state senate race will be a nail biter, since the GOP found a LDS hospital doctor to run in this liberal avenues seat.

If you are undecided, or just plain interested in health care, I urge you to come to the law school (332 South University Street)on October 19, 2006 [Tomorrow, from 6:30 to 8:00 PM] and meet the candidates who will be talking about a proposed constitutional amendment.

Former Salt Lake City Mayor Ted Wilson will moderate, and the panel will feature Senator Scott McCoy; Senate candidate Joe Jarvis; Bill Tibbits, Director of the
Anti-Hunger Action Committee; Roberta Herzberg, Department Head of Political Science at Utah State University; and Brad Kuhnhausen, Utah Association of Health Underwriters.

The proposed amendment states: "Each resident of the State has the right to health care. It is the responsibility of the State to ensure that no resident of the State lacks access to basic, affordable health care." I happen to agree.

My old student organization, PILO, will be hosting. If you have any questions, post a comment and I will direct it to our fabulous new leadership. See you there.

sleeper in Salt Lake City

The Deseret News headline: "District 2 looks like Matheson cakewalk"

Utah's 2nd district isn't on Hotline's top 60, or any national ranking group's radar. The national parties are staying out of Utah after failing so badly last time. It is over, Jim has a seat in the House until at least 2012.

A late September survey by Dan Jones & Associates found Matheson ahead of Christensen, 60-24 percent.
...
Matheson also leads Christensen in fund raising. The latest Federal Election Commission reports show that Matheson has $1.1 million in cash while Christensen has nearly $300,000.
A millionaire, Christensen has put $490,000 of his own money into his race, and he may well put more in as he runs more TV and radio ads up to Election Day.

So far, I have seen TV ads from Jim 3 times (two different ads) and zero from LaVar. Keep trying to insinuate homophobia with your Pelosi=San Francisco talking points, but only a handful of people in Utah even know who she is.

Other third quarter results of blow out Utah races: "Ashdown has $14,217 in cash; Hatch has $2.8 million." And that is after Hatch gave lots of money to the National Republican committees and threw away some money by giving it to LaVar. Pete Ashdown is bummed that no one gave him money, especially the technology PACs...sorry Pete but they don't want to piss off a very powerful soon to be reelected Senator. I will vote for you, but you aren't going to win.

a changing Democratic majority?

If the Democrats re-gain control of the House, which pundits and prognosticators say they will, it will do so without the old Confederacy as a base of support. This is a big deal, and signifies a shift in the politics of the South and the Northeast.

But it doesn't necessarily mean that the Democratic Party itself will become more Liberal. Many of the new seats to be gained are by definition in Republican held areas. Sure, some are in blue states or areas Kerry or Gore won, but a majority will only come from Republican areas (that is, Bush districts and some in Bush states).

For example, Indiana seems to be fruitfull territory this year for House seats. But Indiana has supported Republicans for President for decades, and they just elected a Republican Governor. Granted, the Republican Governor's unpopular decisions are part of the reason Democrats look good in that state this year, but these candidates are not liberals by any means.

There will be a lot more new Melissa Beans in Congress on January 2007 than there will be Chris Van Hollen's because of where Democrats will be sucessful. To me, it looks like Connecticut will not be a good state this year. All of the GOP incumbents knew it was going to be a tough year, and were prepared. Some may still lose, but I doubt all of them will. And Joe Lieberman's continued presence really hurts Democratic challengers, as Joe's quasi-Republicanism becomes more pronounced with each day.

Upstate New York will yield a few, but again these are in conservative areas...even if Clinton will carry them twice and Spitzer will run circles around the GOP. The region still elects GOP state Senators and voted for Bush in 2004. Ohio's gains will come from very GOP regions, as will any California gains (1-2 might materialize).

By contrast, Penn. will be a good state for Democrats this year, so more progressive Dems will come from there. There are a handful of seats that if they flip will like Chis Van Hollen's stay flipped: Northrup's in KY, almost all of the CT districts, the Philly burbs, Wilson's in NM...but the rest of the gains will be challenged very hard in 2008, when turn out will be higher and the GOP will have NOTBush as their presidential candidate (most likely McCain). So all of the class of 2006 will play it safe and not vote especially liberal on social isssues (save stem cells).

The same story will be true for the Senate as well. A Senator Ford, Webb, McCaskill, Casey, and probabbly Tester would vote fairly moderately and make pains to disagree with their liberal collegues when possible.

Bottom line: the New Democrat caucus in both the House and the Senate will not die out. While the Democratic majority will not be beholden to the South in the House, it will in the Senate. But again, either way, there will be more moderates in both chambers after 2006, not less. This will not make the would be Democratic majorities more liberal. If anything, House Democrats as a whole will be less liberal.

on air?

I got interviewed this afternoon for KSL nightside on the topic of bloggers and libel suits. (Thanks Ethan!) Maybe I was too boring or maybe I convinced them that libel is not as much of a worry as disclosing priviledged or secret information is...but it looks like it won't air anytime soon.

I talked about my legal and ethical obligations to make sure that I don't prejudice potential jurors on criminal cases, or spill the beans on inside information for legislative or executive process.

If Chris Buttars or LaVar Christensen or Chris Cannon or Joe Cannon or any other local political figure that has made an a$$ of themselves by saying dumb things, doing dumb things, or being hypocritical, I welcome their lawsuit. Besides being a lawyer in training, I know lots of lawyers and I am sure I could find a libel/first amendment lawyer willing to go to bat for blogger's rights to call a spade a spade.

I can only dream of getting hit with a lawsuit...my blog's hits would go through the roof and my legal career would be cemented after I helped beat the pants off one of those clowns. To quote George W. Bush, "Bring it on."

relative holidays

Today is Columbus Day. In Boston, this makes for a large parade and everything being closed. In Utah, the post office, courts, and other annoyances are closed.

On Pioneer Day, Utah shuts down, but everyone else in the country is wondering why Utahns won't pick up the phone. Minor holidays will do that. Even though Columbus and Martin Luther King day are federal holidays, you can't force places besides federal offices to take the day off. There needs to be a cultural support for the holiday.

If only we could make Election Day one of those super federal holidays, like the 4th of July. Would some people make it into a long weekend? Sure, but others would be happy to vote without the stress of worrying about getting back to work. Both party's GOTV operation would be so much easier. The poor would be more likely to vote.

If we really value democracy and the people as much as we say we do, we would make it a holiday too. and if this polling holds up, it looks like it will be Christmas for Democrats in November.

In 1994, Speaker Foley lost his seat. This was seen as emblematic of the catostrophic losses the Democrats faced. In 2006, it looks like it will be NRCC chair Tom Reynolds turn. He is down 15% after this Foley scandal broke. And I am almost 100% that Hastert won't be around next year either. He will resign after losing the Speaker's spot, either by losing control of the House or in falling on the sword after a narrow victory.

Earth to LaVar: you've lost already

LaVar Christensen believes that he can make the pitch that if Matheson wins reelection, Pelosi will be Speaker and the Democrats will legislate immorality...Even after Rep. Mark Foley's scandal continues to break.

Christensen's ad says: "Political experts are reporting that for the first time in 12 years, Democrats in Washington have a strong chance of winning enough seats in the coming election to take control of Congress.
"What will that mean for you, for Utah and America? ...
"It will mean increased dependence on foreign oil, rising gas prices and falling moral standards."

This is what he means by 'America needs Utah.' Utah needs to save America from itself because somehow more people will have abortions with a Democratically controlled House. Even though in this same America (I haven't seen polling in Utah on it), a majority/plurality of Americans trust Democrats over Republicans in EVERY area...including moral values. And having Chris Cannon blame Mark Foley's lust for underage boys on the boys themselves isn't going to help LaVar any.

The irony of blaming Democrats for any dropping moral standard "is self-evident on its face," said Matheson. "It is their (Republican) Party that's seen four different members resign" for questionable behavior "in just this term of Congress."
...
"Democrats are the ones who embrace abortion and same-sex marriage," he [LaVar] says.
"Massachusetts has chosen to accept (Rep.) Barney Frank and what he does. But in Utah that is not our standard. Why should Utah contribute to the taking over of Congress by the Democrats?" said Christensen. Frank has openly declared that he is gay.

Somehow with Mark Foley, Iraq, Abramoff, the economy, health care costs, and all the rest, that the imaginary specter of gay marriage and abortion is going to do it. Let's face facts, Utah is never going to allow gay marriage unless some future Supreme Court forces it to. Ditto for loosening some of the tightest abortion regulations in the country. So anything a Democratic Congress might do will have no effect on Utahns.

Meanwhile, the NRCC hasn't given Utah's second district a dime of their money. LaVar claims it is because his campaign is doing so well that he hasn't bothered to ask for money. Riiiight. Matheson has AT LEAST twice as much money has you, and is up over 20 points in the polls, but you are doing great. Reality check from soon to be ex-Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign advisor Kirk Jowers:

The party's unwillingness to put money in the 2nd District "is one of the big signs that they don't consider it a competitive race."
"It's essentially the party throwing up the white flag that they know this is over for this seat" and is now focusing its finances on defending one of the multitude of vulnerable Republicans in other states, Jowers said.
Matheson, however, isn't counting the national party out, yet.
"There's no guarantee they won't come in. There's five weeks to go. I can't assume it's not going to happen. It's happened every other year."

Matheson is smart not to assume the best is going to happen and to campaign aggressively. Better to run up the score and really ensure that he will never get challenged seriously again then kick back and let it get close.

We have yet to see the third quarter numbers for this race, but I doubt there is much in LaVar's account other than his $650k. Jim probably has 1.5-2M, and has yet to spend any serious money yet. The good news for Utahns is that the only negative ads you will see will be from the candidates themselves, and most if not all will be from LaVar. Jim has no need to go negative or even acknowledge that LaVar exists.

Friday thoughts

Sometimes, my post contain multiple topics and ideas, and while they seem to all interrelate with tidy transitions to me, most see them as disjointed. So today, I will just do bullets my disconnected thoughts:

• This last week is probably the first time anyone other than Illinios voters and political junkies have even heard of Speaker Hastert. And their first impression: a guy who would rather keep a seat safe and save a couple million than protect teenagers from a known sexual predator.
  Hastert has become radioactive: no one wants him to raise money for them, let alone campaign with them. It is only a manner of time before he loses his job, either after or before November.


• Lohra Miller's "ask a cop" slogan referrs to the fact that the policeman's union of SLC and SL Co. Sheriff's union have endorced her. Why not just "say endorsed by county and SLC police officers?" Instead, people have defaced signs by mocking the slogan. i have seen the word "ask" struck through with and replaced with "kill" (which is terrible and I condone). Another has "Don't" inserted before "ask." Stupid slogan, if she just kept it simple with her "justice first" and a "endorsed" one would be better. "Ask a cop" requires the voter to do the work, and they won't.
  
  "Justice first" I found out, does refer to her critics of the DA's office, most of which are based on her lack of understanding or willful ignorance of the system.
  Her point that over 70% of sex crimes cases are dismissed when the defendant pleads guilty overlooks the fact that many times victims are unwilling to testify and sex cases tend to get weaker as time goes by: couples get back together, people forget details, stuff gets lost/destroyed, people move away, etc. The felony DUI cases dismissal rate is high because a felony DUI needs two certified DUI convictions within the last 10 years. These are often hard to obtain. Case numbers are misentered into the RAP sheet, files are archived or destoryed within a few years. Often, this means that a felony DUI charge is dismissed, and refiled as a misdemeanor DUI. So the notion that 20% of DUIs go away completely is eroneous.
  
  As to her charge that politics comes first, I haven't seen that personally.

Page-gate: how to handle it

This all could have blown over in 2005 and gotten rolled into a news dump on Katrina. Rep. Foley could have been pushed to not run for reelection, and the GOP could have kept his money (all $2.7M of it) and had time to find a decent replacement. The might have lost the seat, anyway, but at least they would have a fighting chance.

But once the news came out, the last thing the GOP leadership should have done was each talk about it separately and point the blame. With each telling differing stories and blaming each other, voters begin to think, "well one of them is lying, let's throw them all out." Next time, hold a closed door caucus meeting and vote the dude out of caucus and then have him resign immediately afterwards.

Next, take some blame. Say "hindsight is 20/20, but we should have heeded the warnings signs." Fire the staffer who tried to shove it under the rug that day too. Offer to have a full investigation after the election by the ethics committee.

Offer bills to reform the page program so that members cannot get too close, since appearantly pages in the well of the House are like Cookies in a jar.

In fact, the handling looks so bad that I am beginning to think this a coup to chop off the head of the GOP House leadership. Rep. Blunt lost the Maj. Leader race, and with Boehner, Hastart, and Reynolds all implicated in this scandal, he could become speaker/min. leader. Blunt could blame the loss of control on those guys, and cruise up the leadership ladder. And if the Dems win is very narrow, and 2008 is a big GOP year, his 4 year plan for the Speakership is done.

Or this could be a plan to purify the GOP by arch conservatives, social and economic. There is a list of Gay GOP staffers going around, ripe for posting on the internet and blacklisting. Some religious conservatives are blaming Foley's behavior oh his homosexuality. You don't see Barney Frank propositioning pages though. The current GOP in the House spend like drunken sailors with wads of cash, lust for power like they lust for pages and mistresses. The fist rots at the head as they say, and boy does that fish stink.

SLCo DA neck and neck

This race interests me because I will in all likelihood be applying for a position with the District Attorney about a year from now. And right now, my would be boss is unknown.



Another interesting finding is that

Gill has a lot more money in his war chest to get him through the last month of the election. According to recent financial reports filed with the county, Gill has approximately $30,099 left in his campaign fund, while Miller has $1,699.
Throughout the campaign, Miller has raised $94,338, while Gill has total contributions of $116,613.
Other races for Salt Lake County elected positions aren't nearly as close, with incumbents holding commanding leads, according to the poll.

By commanding they mean 60-40 races.
So with Gill's money edge, slight polling (within the margin of error) edge, and slightly superior billboards, it will all come down to turn out. Will Jim's massive cash edge and GOTV machine help Sim? Will it be a Democratic year in Utah too? These questions will all soon be answered in a month's time.

I love elections, as Herold Ford said, it's like Christmas. Except the day after Christmas has never been depressing for me.