Headline in 54 days: Dean wins NH

If you had hopes that Kerry could stage a come back in NH, or that anyone might give Dean a scare up there, you better give up now. Not one but two polls show Dean destroying everyone and Kerry flopping further and Clark ticking up to be close to 2nd place, thanks to a $221k ad buy.

A Zogby Int'l poll, conducted 12/1-3, surveyed 503 likely Dem primary voters (302 Dems; 201 indies); margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 12/4).

Dem Primary Matchup Now 10/03 9/03 Dem Ind Fav/Unfav
Howard Dean 42% 40% 30% 44% 39% 78%/12%
John Kerry 12 17 20 15 9 64 /28
Wesley Clark 9 6 n/a 9 9 50 /23
Joe Lieberman 7 3 5 6 9 55 /35
John Edwards 4 6 2 4 4 52 /16
Dick Gephardt 3 4 6 2 4 52 /31
Dennis Kucinich 2 0 1 2 1 21 /25
Al Sharpton 0 1 1 0 0 12 /58
Carol Moseley Braun 0 0 0 0 0 25 /27
Not Sure 19 19 22 18 22

An American Research Group poll, conducted 11/30-12/3, surveyed 600 likely Dem primary voters (430 Dems; 170 indies); margin of error +/- 4% (release, 12/4).

Dem Primary Matchup
Now 11/20 11/5 Fav/Unfav
Dean 45% 38% 38% 69 / 7
Kerry 13 17 24 57 /18
Clark 11 7 4 43 /12
Gephardt 5 4 3 51 /22
Lieberman 5 5 4 43 /38
Edwards 3 4 4 42 /18
Kucinich 2 3 1 23 /17
Braun 0 1 1 21 /15
Sharpton 1 0 0 15 /46
Undec. 15 21 21

OK in the 40s with 9 people in the race? Its over baby. Even if Kerry can get 2nd in IA (see yesterday's post), which isn't going to happen, he still has no chance in NH. And I don't know how Kerry can think that he can get enough money or support if he can't win the state that has seen his TV ads for over 20 years. And if he is losing his own state to Dean. Quit while you are behind Senator. Its beginning to look like a Greek Tragedy for Sen. JFK. Now I see it as a race between Gephardt Edwards and Clark on second fiddle to Dean. Who will it be?

Gephardt, even if he wins IA, won't have any $ left. Will the cash come when he wins? Maybe, but will it be enough to keep him afloat? I doubt it.

Edwards has as many ifs as Clark: both have to place so high in IA (or in Clark's case NH) to have a shot at SC. or do they? Could they all just leave NH and IA for Dean and make sure they beat him on Super Tuesday Jr. ? The problem with that idea is Dean has sooo much money, he can do both (win IA and NH and put up ads in 2/3 states). I wish it weren't true but unless they clobber Dean in 2/3 and or Gephardt wins IA, don't see how Dems are going to stop the train wreck that is Dean from being the nominee. Gulp