Iowa end game

Al of a sudden, the Hawkeye State became important for 2 other candidates, or at least they suddenly realized it.

1. Kerry figured out he has to do well in IA to have a prayer in NH, and since he wasn't getting much traction in the "Live Free or Die" State (great motto by the way), and was closer to Dean in IA than NH he might as well try for 2nd/"1st" since his campaign spin is still that he will win IA and NH and the nomination (riiight).
   
   
2. Edwards figured out that if he had a strong 3rd and knocked out Kerry, he could get a strong 3rd or 2nd in NH and all of a sudden be in shape to win the whole thing. Look where his ad budget and visits are going. Not a bad idea, since Kerry was sinking faster than Michael Jackson record sales.

Ok reality check time: the most recent Zogby Poll Sez: Dean 26, Gephardt 22, a difference within the margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. (The poll of 501 voters who say they are likely to participate in the caucuses was taken Monday and Tuesday. )

In the latest poll, almost three in 10 voters, 28 percent, were undecided -- close to the level of undecided voters in October. And the rest? Single, laughable digits:

Kerry 9 ; Edwards 5; Clark 4. Kucinich and Lieberman 1 percent. Moseley Braun and Sharpton were at 1 percent or less.

So what's going to happen? Either a Dean blowout or a narrow Gephardt win. This is because each caucus group gets to convince the undecides to join with them, and Dean has a huge org network to babysit for caucus goers, drive them to and from and lots of supporters in every single one of IA's 99 counties. Gephardt has risidual support from his '88 days and his career as a labor man in the House...

As for third place? Clark could sneak up on Kerry or Edwards with volunteers, you never know. the fact that he is even within striking distance of those two (w/ the MOE) is a sad statement to those two who have blown, I mean spent 100s of thousands on TV and so on there. Clark spent like $50 in comparison.