Dean getting some Braun in Iowa, where he needs it

Carol Mosley Braun that is. The ex-IL Sen. is finally dropping out of the race and will endorse Dean today in Iowa. Can't say it's surprising, Carol was deeply in debt over this "presidential" run of hers. Her candidacy was really about re-establishing her credibility with the Democratic party, who sees her as damaged goods.

This also helps Dean. One less liberal drain on his vote, one more black person endorsing him. Dean is on an endorsement fix lately. I wish he would focus more on getting voters/caucus goers endorsements instead.

Meanwhile, Iowa is getting even harder to predict; the latest Zogby poll has Kerry narrowly ahead of Dean and Gephardt. The much hyped Zogby has Kerry at 21.6 percent with Dean and Gephardt both at 20.9 percent. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained two percentage points to 17.1 percent, well within the pollÂ’s margin of error, putting all four top contenders in a statistical tie.

So is Kerry's surge and Edwards' reawakening anything more than buyers remorse? Will the organization of Dean and Gephardt make this poll meaningless? (My Bet: yes) If you thought ARG tracking poll numbers were suspect, caucus polling, especially by Zogby (who called the CO race to be a blowout win in 2002 the wrong way) is dubious at best.

So who's gonna win IA? Las Vegas odds are still in Dean's favor, although I think his win will be narrow if that. Second place is either Gephardt or Kerry's, and I don't know how Gephardt can pretend he is viable if he finishes 3rd. Ditto for Edwards: how do you take 4th place and win South Carolina?

If Edwards or Gephardt does well (2nd and 1st respectively) look for them to ditch New Hampshire and go straight to South Carolina to try to take out Clark or Dean. Personally I hope Kerry gets 3rd, so he gets no momentum into NH and most of his support melts to Clark. If Clark can stay within 10 points or less of Dean in NH, look for the media to boost him up going into South Carolina and the other 2/3 states, and for it to become a 2 man race. Then it could go down to March, where Clark will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat (hopefully that rabbit's name will be Bill Clinton) to win states like CA and NY over Dean, otherwise Dean wins it on Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, in NH, the latest ARG poll shows Clark is within 5 points of Dean: Dean 29%, Clark 24%, Kerry 15%. As Josh Marshall says about this and the Iowa poll, "The common denominator seems pretty clear: Dean's support is falling -- not precipitously, but measurably -- and at least some Dean supporters appear to be going to his near rivals in each state." Could it become a 3 man race? Who knows.