Is New Hampshire Winnable for Clark?

CW (conventional wisdom) says "No Way!" After all, Dean has been comfortably ahead in NH for about 5 months now. The ARG tracking poll, the most respected poll out there, has Clark at 22%, Dean at 32% and Kerry at 13%, which is much better than previously (Clark started out at like 3 way back in August) but still 10 points is a lot to make up. But as ARG pollster Dick Bennett informs us, if the Clark trend continues, he could be "leading the race by the end of the weekend."

Since Clark was forced, due to poor campaign management and a late start, to skip Iowa, he will miss the bounce that Dean, Gephardt or Kerry will get from the good news.

Then again, a new Boston Herald poll of likely NH Dem primary voters found Dean with 29% support; Wesley Clark 20%; Kerry 15%; Joe Lieberman 7%; and Edwards 5%. Could Dean's support be that weak? I had said before that there was no way that Dean could melt below 35%, but two polls now show it happening. I suspect these numbers to rebound after Iowa. Unless...

What if Dean loses Iowa? Not only that, what if his second and Kerry's or Edwards' 3rd is so close that it magnifies Dean's loss (I doubt Kerry or Edwards can win Iowa but you never know, I guess).

As much as they are trying to counter spin it, if Dean doesn't win Iowa I think he is in trouble. And if Clark comes within single digits of Dean by then, he might even surpass him. Of course, that is assuming trendlines continue. I am sure once the Dean machine gets to focus on NH more, and with more candidates showing up in NH after next Monday, Clark may slip down or slow down his surge.

The press still seems poised to anoint Clark the anti-Dean. But then again, as the pasted post by Chuck Todd of The Hotline below eloquently states, "But the beauty of conventional wisdom is that it's usually created in order to be debunked down the road."I totally agree with his analysis, which is why I have it pasted below (duh).