Newton's Third Law

Or, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Unfortunately for Dean, two actions (one by him--"The Speech" and one by Kerry-- "The Comeback Kerry") have the same result: him sinking fast.

In fact, Kerry is opening up a huge lead in the state as Dean continues to fall. At first I thought most of this was coming at Clark's expense, but Clark still seemed to be hovering in the high teen to low twenties. And his new neighbor in the polls is Gov. Howard Dean, MD. In fact, in the latest ARG tracking poll, Dean has fallen to third. Remember how I used to think 30 points was his lower limit of support? How he couldn't lose NH at least, oh and that Kerry couldn't win? Well all that is out the window. I bet Clark wishes he would have gotten into the race in the summer and played in Iowa, where he could have gotten a Kerry bounce and pulled off an Edwards, instead of working at Dunkin Donuts or bagging groceries in NH.

Now that he won Iowa convincingly, all of Kerry's old supporters from the spring when he was in the lead have come back to the Junior Senator from Massachusetts. So will Kerry keep his comeback label or will he sink back into the funk that got him in trouble, just like Gore did, as Marshall intones in his The Hill collumn recently.

As for the debate, this was like the ones of old, in other words, a total waste of time...Yawn. Everyone, especially Dean, was afraid of sounding too negative so they said nothing. Except Sharpton, who proved he is nothing but a race-baiter with no knowledge of government, thank goodness he has no prayer. Clark was thrown crap questions that kept him on the defensive. As Josh Marshall noted, the panelists were totally biased: "You had one questioner who is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative, another who is the head political writer for a fiercely conservative newspaper, another who was a soft-soap local anchor man, and Peter Jennings. That tilt gave the questioning an unmistakable skew. Next time there’s a Republican primary debate I’m hoping they'll take the same approach and have the questioners be, maybe, Tom Oliphant, Molly Ivins, Matt Lauer and Tom Brokaw."

It almost seems like GOPers are happier that Kerry is now the man and not Dean. They can't wait to use all his liberal votes and liberal associations (Dukakias and Teddy Kennedy, Mass. SJC gay marriage ruling) to tar him with voters. So why did Clark keep getting horrible questions if he was totally out of it? Don't get me wrong, I think he was OK at best. This was his chance to show why he should win over Dean or Kerry, and he got no love. Not from the questioners nor from the audience, who barely clapped for him.

Nonetheless, I will make this bold prediction on Tuesday's results (to be revised on Monday if necessary):

1. Kerry: 30-35%
   
2. Clark: 20-25%
   
3. Dean:15-20%
   
4. Edwards: 10-15+%
   
5. Lieberman:5-10%

Margin of Error: 4 points

# Latest NH Numbers: John Kerry 31%, Wesley Clark 20%, Howard Dean 18%, John Edwards 11% (ARG, 1/20-22); Kerry 34%, Dean 19%, Clark 14%, Edwards 11% (Globe/WBZ, 1/21-22); Kerry 30%, Dean 22%, Clark 14%, Edwards 7% (MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby, 1/20-22); Kerry 26%, Dean 19%, Clark 17%, Edwards 7% (WHDH/Suffolk, 1/21-22).

# More Numbers: Kerry 30%, Dean 16%, Clark 14%, Edwards 10% (FPC, 1/20-22); Kerry 30%, Dean 25%, Clark 19%, Edwards 8% (Fox/WCVB/WMUR/UNH, 1/19-21); Kerry 30%, Dean 25%, Clark 18%, Edwards 11% (CNN/USA Today/Gallup, 1/19-21).

Top Ten Ways I, Howard Dean, Can Turn Things Around [from Letterman last night]

10. "Switch to decaf"
9. "Unveil new slogan: 'Vote for Dean and get one dollar off you next purchase at Blimpie'"
8. "Marry Rachel on final episode of 'Friends'"
7. "Don't change a thing -- it's going great"
6. "Show a little more skin"
5. "Go on 'American Idol' and give 'em a taste of these pipes"
4. "Start working out and speaking with Austrian accent"
3. "I can't give specifics yet, but it involves Ted Danson"
2. "Fire the staffer who suggested we do this lousy Top Ten list instead of actually campaigning"
1. "Oh, I don't know -- maybe fewer crazy, redfaced rants"