2008 updates

It is amazing how fast and soon presidential politics moves these days. With the most wide-open races in a hundred or so years and a front loaded calendar on both sides, candidates are entering and leaving faster than I can get around to updating the "wannabes" section of my blog (see the bottom of the right side column). But today I got around to it. You will notice that Bayh was moved from "second tier" presidential candidate to first tier VP candidate (wherein he will never be chosen). I also added ex-VA Gov. Jim Gilmore (R), who ravaged the state budget so much that Warner had to raise taxes by over $2 billion to cover the deficits, along with major spending cuts. He sees an opening on the conservative wing of the GOP, given Romney's current troubles. Oh if only the GOP were dumb enough to nominate Gilmore, Romney, Brownback, Tancredo, or Hunter. Any of the Democrats running realistic campaigns could beat them (Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Clark, Richardson).

On the Democratic side, I added NM Gov. Bill Richardson, who has made some smart moves, to the board. I told Clark to speak out against McCain's add troops plan, and Richardson did it and got lots of praise from the blogosphere. Blogs will be the invisible primary of 2007. The winner will get lots of cash, loyalty, phone banking, and some actual on the ground volunteers. It will be interesting to see how the field shapes up.

The top of GOP race is currently McCain, but there is plenty of room on the right to run because the conservatives just don't trust him. And as McCain tires more and more to burnish his conservative bona fides, the more his moderate/independent base leaves him, and makes beating him in November easier. I think a McCain/Giuliani would be the GOP's best electoral bet, but I think a red meat conservative will get the Cheney slot.

The top of the Democratic primary is really much more wide open. Atrios sees it as a three way tie between Hillary, Obama, and Edwards. Edwards has the calendar and labor going for him. Hillary has the network of Clintonistas and loyal women behind her. Obama is the media darling, the McCain of 2008. But be warned Barrack, they love to tear down what they have created. I just hope it is McCain and not Obama, who would make an excellent VP choice. All three of these dubbed frontrunners could falter at any moment, so Clark & Richardson have a good shot and squeezing in. Both would also be good VP candidates. Democrats could realistically have a woman/black, woman/hispanic, black/hispanic, hispanic/black,or black/woman(with Sebilius as VP) ticket in 2008 and have all of these tickets with a good shot of success.