Tuesday, January 08, 2008

NH predictions

Now that I am slightly more present than I was yesterday (thanks to all who tried to decipher that rambling post), I think I will venture another prediction thread.

First the Democrats, which I seem to have a better grasp of:

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Kucinich/Gravel

Obama was virtually tied in New Hampshire before his surprisingly strong win in Iowa, and 5 days was just not enough time for Clinton to right the ship. His crowds are huge, and every report I read is that even at other candidates rallies, people are taking about him and wishing they weren't in the overflow. Obama is doing two speeches now per an event, one for the people in the auditorium, another for the overflow outside. And to his credit, he is holding lots of events each day. His throat probably hurts like H-E-double-hockey-sticks. 36-40%

Clinton: She handled the media blow up over her "tearing up" and those "iron my shirt" morons very well. ... one blogger suggested she get out an ironing board and an iron at every rally, and I think that would have been a great idea. She seems bewildered that people are moving from her to Obama, whom she views has just a great speaker (with no real accomplishments). Bill and Hill are very frustrated, but they aren't out of it, even if they lose NH SC and NV as a result of IA. I saw a clip of Chelsea on the TV yesterday and she looks good. Her parents should really let her out in public more. 28-32%

Edwards: just like in 2004, New Hamsphire voters some how aren't drawn to Edwards. His middle class warfare rhetoric doesn't seem to work on them. In 2004, Kerry co-opted Edwards but in a milder form. With his built in good will from being their neighbor (and an army of MA volunteers), Kerry won big. The same thing is repeating itself in 2008 with Obama, who has a softer version of Edwards' populism. Edwards will stick around until Super Tuesday, hoping that Hillary listens to her advisors that suggest she should drop out after NH. 18-20%

Richardson: He is so happy to be in a debate with just the big three and thinks that Dodd and Biden voters will flock to him. Even if they do, that is only adding 2-4% I bet he gets 8-10%

Kunich/Gravel: who cares 0-2%

Now on to the Grand Old Party, which really seems to be be getting more complicated not less.

1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee
4. Paul
5. Giuliani
6. Thompson
7. Hunter

I know, I know, I picked Romney to come back last time, and I was way off, but hear me out.

Romney: The Mittster pulls of a mini-miracle, but the press won't want to cover it, grouchy that their favorite lost (no more unlimited access and booze). With Obama surging, Independents ditch McCain while Republicans go back to Romney, who has been effectively pointing out all of McCain's apostocies (Immigration reform, voting against Bush Tax Cuts, Campaign Finance Reform, etc.) Romney 32-34%

McCain: It was fun while it lasted. McCain's nail biter second (or first) means that both he and Romney are still viable for a big Michigan show down. 30-33%

Huckabee: third place isn't bad when you have no money, no churches, and no endorsements in your favor. Thank goodness you booked that cool local band, Leno, and Chuck Norris. 10-15%

Paul: If ever there was a place to shock the political establishment in a GOP primary, "Live Free or Die" is the best state to do it. My favorite part of this primary season so far has to be Sean Hanity running "for his life" from Paul supporters (second favorite has to be O'Rielly shoving an Obama staffer because his camera couldn't get a good view, then claiming he did it to protect the constitution) Fox News is providing the entertainment of this primary season which has nothing to do with what they put on the air 8-10%

Giuliani: he makes a last ditch effort to do better in NH due to his dreadful showing in Iowa, and tries to spin it away again. hate to break it to you, but you are not going to win Florida, let alone the nomination or the presidency. 5-8%

Thompson: zzzzz...oh yeah he showed up for the debates and had a couple zingers after everyone else had taken Mitt down. After that, back to some other state he is going to snooze and lose. 3-5%

Hunter: usually, if you bother to show up to Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, the handful of voters there feel bad about not voting for you. No one felt this problem with Duncan Hunter. 1-2%

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