Saturday, April 26, 2008

I called it (again)

Yesterday I said: "I will be shocked if incumbents don't fall both at the primary and at the general election stages of this year's legislative elections." And commenter Brian doubted that this would happen, at least among Utah County Republicans. And yet...
Utah County Republicans today rejected one incumbent seeking re-election: state Rep. Aaron Tilton.
The two-term Springville lawmaker was bounced in favor of challenger Francis Gibson.
Tilton had come under fire with allegations of conflict of interest involving his business, which is seeking to build the first nuclear power plant in Utah. He also is a member of the Public Utilities and Technology Committee in the Legislature.
[...]
Gibson, of Mapleton, knocked Tilton out of the running by getting more than 60 percent of the delegate vote.
All other incumbents up for election secured their nominations at the Utah County Republican Convention this morning at Orem High School.
OK so only one in Utah County lost in the convention, and the other challengers don't even get a primary. But, my prediction was about all incumbents both Democrats and Republicans, and in every county in the state. While I focused on the Utah County Republicans the last few days, it was only because they had the most fireworks, and an incumbent not even getting 40% at convention does indicate that the activist base is upset in Happy Valley. While there may not be in primaries in Utah County, there will be primaries in other counties in Utah and I still stand by my prediction. Maybe this latest news doesn't wholly vindicate me, but I think it certainly doesn't contradict my thesis.

Anyway, have a good weekend. If I feel up to it tonight (aka the Jazz go back to their winning ways) I may post a special treat for my readers.

2 comments:

Brian Watkins said...

I am pleased to say that you were right and I was wrong about at least a few of those Utah County Republicans. Good for them. I hope Gibson turns out better than Tilton.

www.utahbrian.com

Mark Towner said...

http://politicalspyglass.blogspot.com/2008/04/salt-lake-county-democrats-dont-have.html