more like this please

The the Salt Lake Tribune has a fantastic headline, and I want to reward good behavior: "Reid proof that good Mormons can also be Democrats"

Many folks think Democrat and Mormons don't belong in the same sentence, except with "hate" or "aren't" in between. Well, Majority Leader Harry Reid seeks to change all that, but first he has to overcome the culture of the church members themselves.

Despite the fact that Reid held weekly Family Home Evenings and sent three sons on two-year missions for the church, and all five of his children were married in LDS temples, some members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints question his faith because of his politics.

What more can the guy do? He is pro-life, but votes for against anti-choice judges out of party loyalty. He drinks neither alcohol, coffee, tea, or soda. The Democratic Party has lots of religious diversity and religiosity.

Same for Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who noted that Reid is a Mormon, Majority Whip-elect Richard Durbin is a Catholic and Charles Schumer, head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, is Jewish.

Abortion and gay rights are the big two 'values' issues that tend to keep Latter-Day Saints opposed to the Democratic Party. But the party is home to many pro-lifers, like Senator-Elect Bob Casey, and many pro-traditional marriage members too, like Tennessee's U.S. Rep. Lincoln Davis. True, these folks are in the minority in the party and that the presidential candidates must be pro-choice and pro-gay rights to be the nominee, but it doesn't mean these folks can't be proud Democrats in the State House, the Governor's Mansions, the House and the Senate. The reverse can't be said for Republicans who are much more homogenized.

What unites Democrats is caring for people: raising the minimum wage, supporting the right to organize labor, improving health care, reducing taxes on the poor and middle class, caring for the elderly, equal rights for racial/ethnic minorities, and so on.

What unites Republicans is lower taxes. It used to be smaller government, but then congressional Bush Republicans decided to pork their way into "permanent power." I guess it is still smaller government social programs, but it also includes eliminating premarital sex, no gay sex, no gay marriage, no division between church and state, and no social welfare for the poor, the elderly, the young.

Since there are 3 Casey's for every one Rudy G's, and Democrats love to squabble between themselves, I say welcome to my LDS brethern who are tired of giving their social services away to tax cuts for the rich, who are tired of politicians professing their 'faith' in order to humor you for votes but never deliver, who talk about gay marriage and abortion all day long, but never address the root cause of abortion (poverty, lack of sex education, lack of contraception, rape, incest, abuse, misfortune).

fairly benign redistricting, and other oxymorons

More on the Utah redistricting plans from the Deseret News this morning(for a brief synopsis read my dairy on MyDD):

Instead of Huntsman's preliminary idea, committee leaders said, the state's most populous county may be divided among three of the four districts. A redrawn 2nd District could include Summit, Daggett and Morgan counties as well as Salt Lake City, the city's Rose Park and other parts of Salt Lake County.
"These are not set in stone. They're meant to be the starting point for discussion," said Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, co-chairman of the redistricting committee. "We've come up with something that looks fairly benign."
But even as Bramble was drawing his new map, House Speaker Greg Curtis, R-Sandy, warned that any plan that split the county into parts of three districts would only come if Salt Lake County was the "population center of at least two of the districts."

Translation: get Matheson out of my Sandy district, I nearly lost my election to him. Here is the committee, tell me with a straight face this won't be a hyper-partisan 'screw Matheson again' map.

Jeremy Roberts, a Salt Lake County GOP activist, wants a GOP party resolution that says that "only states should have voting representation in the U.S. House and Senate — and so it is unconstitutional to let the District of Columbia have a House seat." Ergo, one for Utah, none for D.C. I am sure it has nothing to do with the white, Republican nature of Utah and the Black, Republican nature of D.C....nothing at all.

Here are some more hints about where the committee is thinking of going:

Only about half of strongly Democratic Salt Lake City is in the existing 2nd District.
As for the rest of Salt Lake County, Bramble said some westside portions should go to a redrawn 3rd District along with a sliver of Tooele County. And the rest of Salt Lake County — including Sandy — could be part of a new 4th District "centered" in St. George.
...
Curtis, who went through the bruising redistricting in 2001, has said that the 2nd District — now held by Utah's only Democratic member of Congress, Rep. Jim Matheson — must be a mostly Democratic seat. Otherwise, Democrats in Congress will not go along with the proposed deal that would give the District of Columbia one voting House seat and give Utah another House seat."

Again, translation for Speaker Curtis: Matheson is unbeatable, so let's give him a safer House seat, so he won't take out other Republicans.

Matheson in recent elections has won more than 60 percent of the vote in this part of his huge geographic district, which also takes in eastern and southern Utah. In the 2006 election, Matheson got more than 70 percent of the Salt Lake County vote. Matheson also has a bit of northeastern Utah County, where he has been beaten by his GOP opponent.

Matheson is already safe, as his victory in November proved. He will never be seriously challenged again unless there is another 2002 like year, but that was the magic combination of a very GOP year and redistricting where Jim had 33% new constituents who didn't know him. He got crushed in Washington County and still eked out a win. Now, he places respectably in Washington County, thanks to all his hard work getting federal money for the St. George airport and other items.

friday roundup

• Joe Cannon is leaving the post of Utah Republican Party chair, making current Vice Chair Enid Greene chair until the next party elections. A failed 2004 Lt. Governor candidate, a failed Congresswoman, and now UT Republican Party chairwoman. The party has a corrupt, but at least competent person at the helm now. However, I am sure she won't last. Utah Republicans have a habit of kicking out women from leadership positions in their party, just ask Governor Walker.


• An opponent to Joe Lieberman (CFL-CT), called the Secretary of State of Connecticut and found out that even Joe wasn't a member of his own "Connecticut for Lieberman" party, so he joined, made himself party chairman, and created the party rules. Here are the highlights (courtesy of My Left Nutmeg):
  

  a. If you run under Connecticut for Lieberman, you must actually join our party.
  b. The party will nominate people for office who have the last name of Lieberman and/or who are critics and opponents of Senator Lieberman.
  c. If any CFL candidate loses our party's nomination in a primary, that candidate must bolt our party, form a new party and work to defeat our party endorsed candidate.
  d. We in the CFL intend to run the same candidate for three different jobs at the same time, ie. House, Senate and Governor.

  
  The brilliant idea is to 1) hold Lieberman accountable, 2) expose "Connecticut for Lieberman" as a sham party, 3) lock out Lieberman from both CFL and Democratic party, making it impossible to Joe to run for reelection in 2012, unless he creates another fake party. The CT legislature will probably change the election laws to prevent sore losers from creating their own parties and running again against their primary opponents, either by changing the date of party formation to before party primaries (currently it is the day after) or simply not allowing a losing candidate to run again.


• SLC mayoral race in 2007 is wide open. Ten candidates have filed for this "non-partisan" election. The winner will most likely be a Democrat, but that hasn't stopped Republicans from trying. Democrats in the minority in the state and county legislature have opted for a chance in the greener pastures of the old city and county building. I don't have a dog in this fight, but I may decide whom I like after learning more about what the candidates propose to do, rather than who they are. Kirk Jowers, Hinckley Institute of Politics told KSL, "There is a lot of pent up excitement to run for office. It's the same thing you'd find if Hatch or Bennett decide to hang it up. There's a lot of people who have been waiting for this moment."

Zombie 4th seat

It won't die...thanks to ultra-powerful Gov. Huntsman. By December 4th, the bill should be passed out of the legislature and used as a bargaining chip for the DC-Utah bill still pending in the lame duck Congress.

"We've been assured by the governor that this will be a fair process with a fair result or he will veto it," said state House Minority Leader Ralph Becker, D-Salt Lake. He said minority Democrats will agree to a special session.

Not that Becker has much choice in the matter...I don't think Dems even have the power to block a quorum.

Gov. Huntsman's map was basically fair: a safe Democratic seat in exchange for 3 GOP safe (save Matheson) seats. But the state legislature isn't going to play nice. Here is the old map the legislature passed in 2001:

"It's open. We're not pushing any particular map," said Senate President John Valentine.
...
"We've been committed all along to making certain at the end of the day that a fair map is adopted," said Huntsman spokesman Mike Mower.

Watch the sparks fly.

wait for 2008

I know the press would much rather be talking up a potential Hillary-McCain 2008 race...but 2006 races aren't over yet. There are 7 House seat that are still undecided, and amazingly enough no Congressional Democrats lost this cycle. Currently 30 seats have been picked up, but any or all of these 7 could go blue.

In Utah, the story is the same: many Salt Lake County races are still close to call, including State House Speaker Greg Curtis'. The GOP believe that Jim Matheson's walking of Curtis' district--combined with his prominant position on a stadium Real Salt Lake--lead to his near or actual loss.

Right now, Speaker Curtis is up on 46 votes. "There also are 600 paper ballots - requested by voters leery of the new electronic machines - that have yet to be tabulated, explained Jason Yocom, chief deputy clerk." If you were wondering if Jason Yocom was related to outgoing D.A. Dave Yocum, you were right, Jason is his son.

Moreover, Utah Democrats have another chance in the Salt Lake County Auditor were the Democratic candidate is behind 344 votes. For that race, Jason Yocum has a "stack of provisionals had passed 7,700 along with more than 3,000 absentees." Those are just the prominent races.

There are actually 4 other state house races that are too close to call. Here are the closest of the close.

* HOUSE 22: Deena Ely, R, leads Carl Duckworth, D (i), by 25 votes.
* HOUSE 29: Janice Fisher, D (i), leads Phillip Conder, R, by 75 votes.
* HOUSE 36: Phil Riesen, D, leads Susan Lawrence, R (i), by 103 votes.
* HOUSE 45: Mark Walker, R (i), leads Laura Black, D, by 32 votes.
* HOUSE 49: Greg Curtis, R (i), leads Jay Seegmiller, D, by 46 votes.
* SALT LAKE COUNTY AUDITOR: Sean Thomas, R (i), leads Jeff Hatch, D, by 344 votes.
* JORDAN SCHOOL BOARD NO. 6: Tracy Cowdell leads Lynette Phillips (i), by 27 votes.

Bush's final days and Utah's 4th

Mr. Lame Duck thinks he can push John Bolton (an utter failure at the UN, despite what a commenter thinks), Daddy's CIA chief for Def. Sec. and a 4th Seat for Utah in exchange for D.C. through in the next couple weeks. Forget about it.

Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah — who remains in U.S. Senate leadership until Dec. 31 — warns there is little likelihood that the compromise plan will make it through the lame-duck congressional session.

Governor Huntsman is worried of those new Democrats in Congress:

"They could move forward unilaterally and take care of voting rights in Washington, without any kind of commensurate increase in representation for Utah," the Republican governor said. He called that prospect a "worst-case scenario."
"We have an open window. And it's going to close very quickly," Huntsman said.

So Huntsman is turning up the heat on the Utah legislature, and they aren't playing ball

"We were being asked by Congress to have an up-or-down vote on a map drawn in the back room," Senate President John Valentine said Tuesday. "We're just not going to do that. . . . We really felt like it was important to have the process include public participation. We were not willing to just play Whac-a-Mole with the Congress."
Instead, state legislators may hold public hearings on the proposed map and then vote on it by Dec. 4 as a way to advance the tandem Utah/D.C. plan.
...
At least one member of the statehouse circulated a letter Tuesday calling the proposal the "fourth seat slippery slide," slamming the idea as one that would eventually hurt Utah and boost Democrats.
"In return for a Western, Republican Utah seat for possibly four years [until we get it legitimately in 2012] we give Washington, D.C., and the Eastern Democrats an extra seat forever," said outgoing Rep. David Cox, R-Lehi. "That doesn't seem like a fair trade."

Dang! A State Representative who is a Republican is either reading my blog, or came to the same conclusion independently (given my traffic, I will opt for number 2). Moreover, Democrats would lock up the 2nd district, Matheson or no Matheson, and free up Jim to run in the new 4th or the new 3rd. My dream is that he takes out Chris Cannon and we get a progressive Democrat to represent the new Second. And then when Hatch or Bennett dies, he wins the open Senate seat.

Meanwhile, the DC democrats are dumb enough to think this will hurt Matheson. Jim can win in almost any district in the state now fairly easily. His ads and person are known statewide and is approval ratings are second only to the nation's most popular governor. What is Matheson's official line?

Matheson, who favors a nonpartisan redistricting commission to make any district changes, says he will vote for any bill that gives Utah a fourth seat now, regardless of how the Legislature's redistricting may affect him personally.

Utah over his political career, principle over personal. That is why Jim won with the biggest margin of all the Congressional races this year.

abstinance makes the heart grow fonder

Sorry for the lack of posting of late. I don't really have much of an excuse, other than I didn't feel the need to comment on anything in particular because the commentary from the big Kahunas was vastly superior to what I would have written (and more often with better spelling and grammar, sorry).

I am excited about the incoming Congress and their boldness already to stop Bush from legalizing his warrantless eavesdropping on international and domestic calls, and their reluctance to allow Mr. Gates to become Defense Secretary without a meaningful hearing (meaning, after the lame duck session).

However, I am saddened by my own personal job situation where there is little certainty and not much I can do but wait and pass the Bar. I do love Utah and Salt Lake County, but if a job prospect opens up in the Washington, D.C. area, I will return to our Nation's Capitol. That year I spent there was some of the most fun I had, despite living in a tiny studio with a 45 minute Metro commute and a slow paced job. Too bad many of my D.C. friends from then have moved on to other cities and jobs. But now my in-laws live only two hours away from D.C. and I am excited to be back in national politics in person rather than just over the internet.

If it weren't for D.C., I would have never been able to help launch the DraftWesleyClark.com part of the Clark movement. If it weren't for blogs and Yahoo! groups, I would have never met Matt Stoller and Stirling Newberry when I moved to Boston.

As much as I love pontificating on the internet and meeting my internet idols, I long use my legal education towards domestic and international policy and politics. Wesley Clark is going to decide whether to run again by January, and if he says yes, I will be there again, where ever I am. A Clark/Warner or Clark/Obama ticket would be excellent and help Democrats take swingable Southern states like Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana. Evan Bayh is a nice man, but he will never be nominated President and as VP would not help carry Indiana. Plus, Clark, Warner, and Obama are exciting because they are not only electable, but principled and charasmatic, and intelligent but not Al Gore 2000/John Kerry 2004 condescending intelligent.

Utah Democrats make strides in 2006

Despite having about the worst night of any state party (although Idaho Democrats must be sad that Bill Sali got elected rather than their Larry Grant), Utah Democrats did have a ray of hope for the future: early voting.

Check out this graphic by the Salt Lake Tribune:

That's right, Utah Democrats kicked butt in SLCo. early voting.
" 'The Democratic Party clearly outstrategized or outworked us on that early voting,' said House Speaker Greg Curtis.
His Democratic opponent, Jay Seegmiller, enjoyed a 60 percent to 40 percent advantage when the early voting." In the end, Curtis hung on to win by 64 votes.
" Out of 55 congressional, legislative or county races, Democrats held the early voting lead in all but 10, and in five of those races Democrats did not field a candidate. Out of those 45 races where Democrats held an early voting lead, they ended up losing 17. "

Well that is something to hope for. Democrats will always outwork Republicans in Utah...they have to in order to have any hope. Republicans just have to plaster the word "Republican" and or put an elephant on every thing to get ahead.

last ditch "bipartisanship"

Many bloggers have noted how Bush's first "bipartisan" effort was an attempt to ram through Gates and John Bolton and retroactive authorization of wiretapping that is currently illegal under FISA. However, another little noticed Bush effort before he turns into a pumpkin on January 20th, Bush wants to push the bill that would give Utah a 4th seat.

Of course, he pretended he never heard of the bill, but the White House spokeswoman said otherwise.

While in theory the bill would be politically neutral, a newly Democratic House could allow D.C. to vote without adding a seat for Utah.

Bush wants to go back to his Texas model, but the Democrats in the Texas legislature were like the Democrats in the Utah legislature: very conservative and in the minority. The trouble is, while there will be a big Blue Dog block in the House, the liberals will be in charge and opt for popular populist bills first, regardless of what Bush wants.

Get your popcorn ready for January, it will be interesting to see the sparks fly.

the morning after

Needless to say I am very happy. My predictions were fairly accurate, I forgot about TX KS FL AZ and CA...I got too optimistic about CT and believed the hype, but I hope Lieberman learned his lesson from August and won't stray too much from the party line.

Sen. Bob Bennett says he thinks Rumsfeld will resign before the next congress takes over. I am fairly confident that Democrats' leads in VA and MT will hold up under possible recounts. What a night, what a sweep! The biggest surprise to me was Carol Shea-Porter, who had maybe a $100,000 and won her more Republican NH district. She will now have lots of "friends" in the Senate and statehouses. What an incredible grassroots candidate, very impressive. I am sad that Eric Massa looks to have lost in NY-29, but it is close and he is not yet conceding...good for him.


Here in Utah, it looks like the wave never breached the Wasatch mountains. Judge Lewis is probably gone. It looks like Miller won the DA's race (and might have done something ethically and legally questionable). Winder is the new Sheriff in town and Kennard graciously invited him to the high up meeting today.

I am pretty tired, but this makes up my temporary depression after the results of 2000, 2002, and 2004 to some degree. I really need a new hobby; I get too sucked in.

final predictions

Utah:
Hatch 60-37 Ashdown
Matheson 63-36 Christensen

SLCo.:
Winder 55-44 Kennard
Gill 49.7-49.3 Miller (expect a recount)
Bradley 52-48 Auger


US House:
PA- 4 seats
CT- 2 seats
NY- 3 seats
IN- 3 seats (net, Julia Carson loses)
KY- 2 seats
NE- 1 seat
KS- 1 seat
CO- 1 seat
NM- 1 seat (Madrid wins)
WY- 1 seat (Trauner wins)
ID- 1 seat (Grant wins)
CA- 1 seat

Senate:
CT: Lamont 51-40 Lieberman (9 for the R)
VA: Webb 55-45 Allen
MD: Cardin 51-49 Steele
MI: Stebenow 53-47 Boshard
MN: Kloblar 55-45 Kennedy
NJ: Menindez 56-44 Kean Jr.
TN: Corker 50.1-49.9 Ford Jr. (recount)
MO: McCaskill 52-48 Talent
MT: Tester 51-49 Burns
[the rest aren't close]

GOV: (only pick ups mentioned)
MA, NY, OH, CO, AR, IA, AK (recount)

James Evans smears again

On the heals of several polls showing Democratic candidate Jim Winder dramatically surging from far behind to far ahead, SLCo GOP party chair James Evans has tried to create a new "scandal."

...James Evans released a video to local media with several clips of Winder leading training sessions for Salt Lake County sheriff's deputies. In the video, Winder makes several inflammatory remarks "unbecoming to the man who wants to be your sheriff," Evans said.
In one clip, Winder said, "I want to be a hero, so I come in from the south side because I want to get there quicker than anybody else so I can give an a-- kicking or maybe shoot some guy if I'm really lucky. No s---."
In several other clips, Winder makes fun of South Salt Lake and Utah Transit Authority officers, as well as dispatchers and other patrol officers.
The video is nearly four minutes long and features a compilation of embarrassing statements Winder made during two separate training sessions that lasted a total of eight hours. Winder said he couldn't comment on the actual statements made in the video since they were clips that could have been taken out of context.

I saw the clips on KSL-TV, and the journalist there was extremely skeptical of Evans' claims. Out of two 4 hour long training sessions, they came up with 4 minutes of segments. Winder told KSL that he often would do role playing, and the clips showed his examples to new Deputies of what not to do.

This, like Evans' charge against Sim Gill, utter crap. Gill, you will recall, failed to properly fill out his disclosure reports--one of 10 candidates to do so (5 Republicans 5 Democrats)--and later fixed his reports. This is an attempt a moral equalizing where the two are not equal. Golfing during work hours is not the same as saying naughty things during training to get through to recruits. Accepting otherwise illegal straw donations from a company that is seeking to contract with your office is not the same as improperly filling out a disclosure form.

Evans in short has no shame. There is no depth he will not go to in hopes to win. What perfidy will he stoop to next? (Sorry my word of the day)

the final local polls show tight races, except Sheriff

Democratic candidate for SLCo Sheriff Dave Winder, who message got some amazingly great news from the Salt Lake Tribune:

Winder, who trailed the sheriff by 30 percentage points one month ago, is favored by 51 percent of county voters compared to 34 percent for Kennard. Fifteen percent are undecided.
...
Winder, a longtime deputy in the sheriff's office, who contends Kennard is out of touch after 16 years on the job.
"Wow," he said about the 17-point advantage in the poll. "Needless to say, I'm very encouraged." The sheriff's race turned personal after stories broke chronicling Kennard's weekday golf habit, according to tallies of the days he plays 18-hole rounds and his scores, which are posted on the Utah Golf Association Web site. Kennard took offense at Winder's suggestion that golf interfered with his job performance, noting he always is available by cell phone, pager or radio and has been called off the course for emergencies.

Winder's slogan? "It's time for a change." Change seems to be the winning message this year all around the country, will it hurt Sim Gill and Jim Bradley, or is this just a pro-Democratic year?

Republican Lohra Miller holds a narrow edge, 36 to 34 percent over Democrat Sim Gill - a statistical dead heat. The poll shows a substantial amount - 26 percent - still are undecided in the election to replace retiring D.A. David Yocom.
In the County Council at-large contest, Democratic incumbent Jim Bradley leads Republican challenger Janice Auger 37 percent to 32 percent, with 27 percent undecided.
The poll, conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 1 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, surveyed 470 voters and has a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Now the race for DA has been tight the whole time, but Bradley had been up by a lot in the September Deseret News/Dan Jones poll. But maybe that is because Auger's "Don't let the 'Grandmother look' fool you." slogan received national attention via TIME magazine.

Mason-Dixon is a pretty reputable polling outfit, and I am glad that the Trib abandoned their previous polling firm that stunk. To me, no body gets Utah polling better than Dan Jones, but this poll is far my recent than the last Dan Jones poll. However, there may be another DJ poll in the field that will come out on Sunday...that is usually what happens. Then there is 48 hours to turns things around for the party that is behind and really Get Out The Vote.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if this purported Democratic wave actually does show up and make Tuesday (and early morning Wednesday) happy times for me. I really get too emotionally involved in politics. I remember how depressed I was for about a week after Kerry lost in 2004. Sure I am a partisan, but I am happy even if Democrats lose if at least turn out stays as high as it did in 2004.

great days for democracy

Yesterday I did not post because I was second-chairing a trial. It was my first real trial where I got to make an opening statement and do direct examination (and redirect and reredirect) and voire dire on jurors. Oh by the way, "I" won.

Anyway, while I was there at the SLCo. government center for the case, I saw huge lines for early voting. This was around noon on a Thursday. I also voted early last Friday (so stop calling me Scott McCoy et al) with my wife and then too there was a pretty serious line for around 4 o'clock. And my sense that this a big turnout is supported by this Deseret News story:

As of Thursday, the state has reported 50,000 votes have been cast.
"As we look at other states that have implemented early voting, this is higher than any other state in terms of percentage, this far, at their first go-around with early voting," said Joe Demma, chief of staff for the state elections office under the direction of Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert. "We're extremely pleased."

People love the convenience of voting on their own time ahead of the election so that it becomes just like going to to grocery store and not something you have to squeeze into a predetermined Tuesday. Political parties love to "bank" their partisans votes early. I love early voting, but I like vote by mail even more.

Voting and registering to vote should be as easy as getting a discount card or a credit card and then shopping online or going to the store to use them. Why is it that Republicans always seem to want to make it harder to vote. The more people vote, the more representative our officials and initiatives will be...the more credibility their decision will later have.

If you win Rove style (50.1%), you have a really small margin of error, next thing you know, you are in the high 30s. And because of this ultra-partisan ultra-divisive way Rove has run the country, Democrats will take back the House and maybe the Senate too. I can't wait until next Tuesday.

embed with the pollsters

not a dimes worth of difference?

Some people say there is no difference between Democrats and Republicans and that state and local races don't matter, it is the big federal races that are important. I say hogwash. How about these apples?

The proposed budget includes $250,000 for the county's small-business loan fund, as well as $20,000 to help build a business technology park in the county.
Corroon also asked for $400,000 to start a child immunization program in the county. The money would pay to immunize 11,000 low-income children under the age of 2 in the county health system. The budget asks for increased staffing levels at the county's after-school program in Kearns.
The green-friendly mayor wants to expand the county's recycling program, and asked for $4.5 million to make the voluntary program a required initiative countywide. The money would be used to place a blue recycling bin on the curb of every home in unincorporated county areas and their contract cities: Herriman, Bluffdale, Taylorsville, Cottonwood Heights, Holladay, Riverton and part of Murray.

How about that? Corroon cleans up the mess that Nancy Workman left in two years, and now wants to get to the progressive stuff he cares about.

The budget also includes money to continue Corroon's efforts to clean up county government. He asked for an associate director for the Administrative Services Department, a division Corroon recently created to provide oversight of several county divisions, such as fleet and personnel. Both divisions have been plagued with scandal over the past few years.

Corroon isn't just recycle bins either, he is law and order. This is something the Sheriff and the DA would get behind:

Corroon also asked to reopen one unit at the jail, which has 64 beds. He also wants to expand substance-abuse treatment programs, as well as make sure inmates are in jail until after their court date.

Of course, Randy Horiuchi wants to cut the jail proposal. All the time, we have people who don't show up to court who were released from jail because they only committed a misdemeanor and there isn't enough room/$ to keep them.

So if you believe as I do, your budget shows your values, then there is quite a lot of difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans in Congress cut taxes for the rich and programs for the poor, while spending pork in their district or for their bribers. Democrats want to increase spending on education and military personnel services. So if you say there is not a dime's difference, take a look at where each party wants your dimes to go.

story of the day

A money quote and picture, what could be better? I was in the Big Apple this weekend for a friend's wedding and got like 10 hours of sleep during the last three days, so excuse the lack of in depth analysis today.

"When investigators opened up the plush doll's skull, they discovered the drug stash [of 4 pounds] inside wrapped in plastic... While Elmo has never previously been linked to narcotics distribution or use, the Sesame Street character appears to have no teeth, which frequently is seen in heavy meth users."



The Smoking Gun.com christened the doll "Hook Me Up Elmo," I call it "Meth on his Mind Elmo"

another sign for Christmas in November?

deseretnews.com | Salt Lake County expands early voting due to high turnout: "The Salt Lake County clerk's office is expanding early voting for the general election.
Due to high turnout, the office is opening this Saturday and next Saturday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. and adding more voting machines."

I hope that everyone who can should go and vote, whether you are Democrat, Republican, Green, Liberarian, Personal Choice or what.

Try out those machines this week while the lines are small. Don't go all Diebold tin-foil-hat on me.

Chairman Waxman gets warmed up on Leavitt

Soon-to-be-Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman found this nugget: "Cabinet secretaries — especially former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt — use too many private planes to travel on government business, which has cost taxpayers $1.5 million since January 2001."
Why is Leavitt taking "19 trips aboard a private jet leased by CDC at a cost of $726,048 in order to promote administration policies"? Can't Leavitt fly coach to pimp privatizing social security and Medicare Part D? Waxman makes an outrageous request:

"If Cabinet secretaries are going to continue to travel across the country in the coming weeks, their travel should be economical and comply fully with federal travel regulations"
...
Waxman and Government Reform Committee Chairman Tom Davis, R-Va., wrote to all the federal agencies in June asking for information on their use of private aircraft.

Waxman also noticed that these trip were four times higher in 2004 to battleground states than in 2001, 2003, and 2005. Former Governor Leavitt, stop using the federal government as tool for the Republican Party. You are a millioniare, use your own damn jet if you want to fly private.

legislative process as a campaign tactic

The Salt Lake Tribune has an interesting scenerio/story that goes something like this

Candidate A: Education is my top issue. I would have scrapped a tax cut in favor of increased funding.
Candidate B: Me, too.
Candidate B: We are in desperate need of health care reform to get coverage to tens of thousands of uninsured Utahns.
Candidate A: I couldn't agree more.
Confused voter: Then why should I vote for you, Candidate A, over Candidate B?
Candidate A: I'm a Republican, and if you want your voice heard at all in Utah, you'd better elect me or you'll be marginalized along with the whole super-minority Democratic Party.
Candidate B: No, you should vote for me because you can't reverse the Legislature's wrong direction by throwing more Republicans into it.

history tells us that almost always, these kind of process arguments don't really matter to voters. Why else would Jim Matheson have been elected in 2000, narrowly won again in 2002, and was relected so overwhelmingly in 2004 (and soon 2006)? Why else would voters choose John Thune over then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle?

I say that voters either like the candidates or they don't. Sometimes when they don't like either, they go with their ideological ally (see New Jersey 2000-06). Sometimes they just want to throw the bumb out, even if the other candidate isn't so great.

While both the GOP and Democratic arguments in this non-hypothetical have merit, it all is really besides the point if you are looking for the message that will get you votes (and fits you). State Republican party officials claim their arguement is working in some SLC districts (where almost all of the Democratic seats are), but I doubt it will pan out.

Voters get that dumping a Daschle will mean less money comes to their state, but they don't get how the voting for Speaker works, who the Speaker is, or even what the Speaker is (let alone who/what the Majority and Minority Whips are).

What does it say about our legislature and American legislative systems in general that in order to get anything done for the people you represent, you have to claim the right party mantle, even if it doesn't fit you? Dr. Joe Jarvis, at least on health care, sounds like he is from Berkley or Cambridge, not a Utah Republican. But part of his argument I assume is that Scott McCoy is a nice guy, but as a Democrat, he can't get anything done.

Claiming every candidate has to be from one party leads to the Soviet system and really runs a roughshod over minority rights. Since Scott McCoy is an openly gay Democrat he is naturally going to be more attuned to minority rights in all aspects, even if he is a rich, educated, white, male. Empathy through experience, that is something being a white male LDS Republican running for office in Utah will never have.

America needs blogs

So for those of you who believe that posting on the internet is just placing words in the ether, here's a story for you:

I have written posts critiquing billboards of local politicans, and their slogans. I also suggested that folks show up to tonight's panel on health care in Utah. Well, at this event was State Senator Scott McCoy and Dr. Joe Jarvis, amoung others. During the reception, I spotted Senator McCoy and shook his hand.

Immediately, he thanked me for the input on my blog on his signs. "Next time, we'll focus group them through you," he said. I assume it was a joke, although it sounded like he agreed with my analysis. We both agreed that "America needs Utah" is the dumbest slogan out there.

That made my night. That, and Hansen's soda. Man that stuff is good.

Care about heath care in Utah?

It seems by looking at the lawnsign war, and the Salt Lake Tribune endorsement of Joseph Q. ("Dr. Joe") Jarvis, that my local state senate race will be a nail biter, since the GOP found a LDS hospital doctor to run in this liberal avenues seat.

If you are undecided, or just plain interested in health care, I urge you to come to the law school (332 South University Street)on October 19, 2006 [Tomorrow, from 6:30 to 8:00 PM] and meet the candidates who will be talking about a proposed constitutional amendment.

Former Salt Lake City Mayor Ted Wilson will moderate, and the panel will feature Senator Scott McCoy; Senate candidate Joe Jarvis; Bill Tibbits, Director of the
Anti-Hunger Action Committee; Roberta Herzberg, Department Head of Political Science at Utah State University; and Brad Kuhnhausen, Utah Association of Health Underwriters.

The proposed amendment states: "Each resident of the State has the right to health care. It is the responsibility of the State to ensure that no resident of the State lacks access to basic, affordable health care." I happen to agree.

My old student organization, PILO, will be hosting. If you have any questions, post a comment and I will direct it to our fabulous new leadership. See you there.

sleeper in Salt Lake City

The Deseret News headline: "District 2 looks like Matheson cakewalk"

Utah's 2nd district isn't on Hotline's top 60, or any national ranking group's radar. The national parties are staying out of Utah after failing so badly last time. It is over, Jim has a seat in the House until at least 2012.

A late September survey by Dan Jones & Associates found Matheson ahead of Christensen, 60-24 percent.
...
Matheson also leads Christensen in fund raising. The latest Federal Election Commission reports show that Matheson has $1.1 million in cash while Christensen has nearly $300,000.
A millionaire, Christensen has put $490,000 of his own money into his race, and he may well put more in as he runs more TV and radio ads up to Election Day.

So far, I have seen TV ads from Jim 3 times (two different ads) and zero from LaVar. Keep trying to insinuate homophobia with your Pelosi=San Francisco talking points, but only a handful of people in Utah even know who she is.

Other third quarter results of blow out Utah races: "Ashdown has $14,217 in cash; Hatch has $2.8 million." And that is after Hatch gave lots of money to the National Republican committees and threw away some money by giving it to LaVar. Pete Ashdown is bummed that no one gave him money, especially the technology PACs...sorry Pete but they don't want to piss off a very powerful soon to be reelected Senator. I will vote for you, but you aren't going to win.

a changing Democratic majority?

If the Democrats re-gain control of the House, which pundits and prognosticators say they will, it will do so without the old Confederacy as a base of support. This is a big deal, and signifies a shift in the politics of the South and the Northeast.

But it doesn't necessarily mean that the Democratic Party itself will become more Liberal. Many of the new seats to be gained are by definition in Republican held areas. Sure, some are in blue states or areas Kerry or Gore won, but a majority will only come from Republican areas (that is, Bush districts and some in Bush states).

For example, Indiana seems to be fruitfull territory this year for House seats. But Indiana has supported Republicans for President for decades, and they just elected a Republican Governor. Granted, the Republican Governor's unpopular decisions are part of the reason Democrats look good in that state this year, but these candidates are not liberals by any means.

There will be a lot more new Melissa Beans in Congress on January 2007 than there will be Chris Van Hollen's because of where Democrats will be sucessful. To me, it looks like Connecticut will not be a good state this year. All of the GOP incumbents knew it was going to be a tough year, and were prepared. Some may still lose, but I doubt all of them will. And Joe Lieberman's continued presence really hurts Democratic challengers, as Joe's quasi-Republicanism becomes more pronounced with each day.

Upstate New York will yield a few, but again these are in conservative areas...even if Clinton will carry them twice and Spitzer will run circles around the GOP. The region still elects GOP state Senators and voted for Bush in 2004. Ohio's gains will come from very GOP regions, as will any California gains (1-2 might materialize).

By contrast, Penn. will be a good state for Democrats this year, so more progressive Dems will come from there. There are a handful of seats that if they flip will like Chis Van Hollen's stay flipped: Northrup's in KY, almost all of the CT districts, the Philly burbs, Wilson's in NM...but the rest of the gains will be challenged very hard in 2008, when turn out will be higher and the GOP will have NOTBush as their presidential candidate (most likely McCain). So all of the class of 2006 will play it safe and not vote especially liberal on social isssues (save stem cells).

The same story will be true for the Senate as well. A Senator Ford, Webb, McCaskill, Casey, and probabbly Tester would vote fairly moderately and make pains to disagree with their liberal collegues when possible.

Bottom line: the New Democrat caucus in both the House and the Senate will not die out. While the Democratic majority will not be beholden to the South in the House, it will in the Senate. But again, either way, there will be more moderates in both chambers after 2006, not less. This will not make the would be Democratic majorities more liberal. If anything, House Democrats as a whole will be less liberal.

on air?

I got interviewed this afternoon for KSL nightside on the topic of bloggers and libel suits. (Thanks Ethan!) Maybe I was too boring or maybe I convinced them that libel is not as much of a worry as disclosing priviledged or secret information is...but it looks like it won't air anytime soon.

I talked about my legal and ethical obligations to make sure that I don't prejudice potential jurors on criminal cases, or spill the beans on inside information for legislative or executive process.

If Chris Buttars or LaVar Christensen or Chris Cannon or Joe Cannon or any other local political figure that has made an a$$ of themselves by saying dumb things, doing dumb things, or being hypocritical, I welcome their lawsuit. Besides being a lawyer in training, I know lots of lawyers and I am sure I could find a libel/first amendment lawyer willing to go to bat for blogger's rights to call a spade a spade.

I can only dream of getting hit with a lawsuit...my blog's hits would go through the roof and my legal career would be cemented after I helped beat the pants off one of those clowns. To quote George W. Bush, "Bring it on."

relative holidays

Today is Columbus Day. In Boston, this makes for a large parade and everything being closed. In Utah, the post office, courts, and other annoyances are closed.

On Pioneer Day, Utah shuts down, but everyone else in the country is wondering why Utahns won't pick up the phone. Minor holidays will do that. Even though Columbus and Martin Luther King day are federal holidays, you can't force places besides federal offices to take the day off. There needs to be a cultural support for the holiday.

If only we could make Election Day one of those super federal holidays, like the 4th of July. Would some people make it into a long weekend? Sure, but others would be happy to vote without the stress of worrying about getting back to work. Both party's GOTV operation would be so much easier. The poor would be more likely to vote.

If we really value democracy and the people as much as we say we do, we would make it a holiday too. and if this polling holds up, it looks like it will be Christmas for Democrats in November.

In 1994, Speaker Foley lost his seat. This was seen as emblematic of the catostrophic losses the Democrats faced. In 2006, it looks like it will be NRCC chair Tom Reynolds turn. He is down 15% after this Foley scandal broke. And I am almost 100% that Hastert won't be around next year either. He will resign after losing the Speaker's spot, either by losing control of the House or in falling on the sword after a narrow victory.

Earth to LaVar: you've lost already

LaVar Christensen believes that he can make the pitch that if Matheson wins reelection, Pelosi will be Speaker and the Democrats will legislate immorality...Even after Rep. Mark Foley's scandal continues to break.

Christensen's ad says: "Political experts are reporting that for the first time in 12 years, Democrats in Washington have a strong chance of winning enough seats in the coming election to take control of Congress.
"What will that mean for you, for Utah and America? ...
"It will mean increased dependence on foreign oil, rising gas prices and falling moral standards."

This is what he means by 'America needs Utah.' Utah needs to save America from itself because somehow more people will have abortions with a Democratically controlled House. Even though in this same America (I haven't seen polling in Utah on it), a majority/plurality of Americans trust Democrats over Republicans in EVERY area...including moral values. And having Chris Cannon blame Mark Foley's lust for underage boys on the boys themselves isn't going to help LaVar any.

The irony of blaming Democrats for any dropping moral standard "is self-evident on its face," said Matheson. "It is their (Republican) Party that's seen four different members resign" for questionable behavior "in just this term of Congress."
...
"Democrats are the ones who embrace abortion and same-sex marriage," he [LaVar] says.
"Massachusetts has chosen to accept (Rep.) Barney Frank and what he does. But in Utah that is not our standard. Why should Utah contribute to the taking over of Congress by the Democrats?" said Christensen. Frank has openly declared that he is gay.

Somehow with Mark Foley, Iraq, Abramoff, the economy, health care costs, and all the rest, that the imaginary specter of gay marriage and abortion is going to do it. Let's face facts, Utah is never going to allow gay marriage unless some future Supreme Court forces it to. Ditto for loosening some of the tightest abortion regulations in the country. So anything a Democratic Congress might do will have no effect on Utahns.

Meanwhile, the NRCC hasn't given Utah's second district a dime of their money. LaVar claims it is because his campaign is doing so well that he hasn't bothered to ask for money. Riiiight. Matheson has AT LEAST twice as much money has you, and is up over 20 points in the polls, but you are doing great. Reality check from soon to be ex-Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign advisor Kirk Jowers:

The party's unwillingness to put money in the 2nd District "is one of the big signs that they don't consider it a competitive race."
"It's essentially the party throwing up the white flag that they know this is over for this seat" and is now focusing its finances on defending one of the multitude of vulnerable Republicans in other states, Jowers said.
Matheson, however, isn't counting the national party out, yet.
"There's no guarantee they won't come in. There's five weeks to go. I can't assume it's not going to happen. It's happened every other year."

Matheson is smart not to assume the best is going to happen and to campaign aggressively. Better to run up the score and really ensure that he will never get challenged seriously again then kick back and let it get close.

We have yet to see the third quarter numbers for this race, but I doubt there is much in LaVar's account other than his $650k. Jim probably has 1.5-2M, and has yet to spend any serious money yet. The good news for Utahns is that the only negative ads you will see will be from the candidates themselves, and most if not all will be from LaVar. Jim has no need to go negative or even acknowledge that LaVar exists.

Friday thoughts

Sometimes, my post contain multiple topics and ideas, and while they seem to all interrelate with tidy transitions to me, most see them as disjointed. So today, I will just do bullets my disconnected thoughts:

• This last week is probably the first time anyone other than Illinios voters and political junkies have even heard of Speaker Hastert. And their first impression: a guy who would rather keep a seat safe and save a couple million than protect teenagers from a known sexual predator.
  Hastert has become radioactive: no one wants him to raise money for them, let alone campaign with them. It is only a manner of time before he loses his job, either after or before November.


• Lohra Miller's "ask a cop" slogan referrs to the fact that the policeman's union of SLC and SL Co. Sheriff's union have endorced her. Why not just "say endorsed by county and SLC police officers?" Instead, people have defaced signs by mocking the slogan. i have seen the word "ask" struck through with and replaced with "kill" (which is terrible and I condone). Another has "Don't" inserted before "ask." Stupid slogan, if she just kept it simple with her "justice first" and a "endorsed" one would be better. "Ask a cop" requires the voter to do the work, and they won't.
  
  "Justice first" I found out, does refer to her critics of the DA's office, most of which are based on her lack of understanding or willful ignorance of the system.
  Her point that over 70% of sex crimes cases are dismissed when the defendant pleads guilty overlooks the fact that many times victims are unwilling to testify and sex cases tend to get weaker as time goes by: couples get back together, people forget details, stuff gets lost/destroyed, people move away, etc. The felony DUI cases dismissal rate is high because a felony DUI needs two certified DUI convictions within the last 10 years. These are often hard to obtain. Case numbers are misentered into the RAP sheet, files are archived or destoryed within a few years. Often, this means that a felony DUI charge is dismissed, and refiled as a misdemeanor DUI. So the notion that 20% of DUIs go away completely is eroneous.
  
  As to her charge that politics comes first, I haven't seen that personally.

Page-gate: how to handle it

This all could have blown over in 2005 and gotten rolled into a news dump on Katrina. Rep. Foley could have been pushed to not run for reelection, and the GOP could have kept his money (all $2.7M of it) and had time to find a decent replacement. The might have lost the seat, anyway, but at least they would have a fighting chance.

But once the news came out, the last thing the GOP leadership should have done was each talk about it separately and point the blame. With each telling differing stories and blaming each other, voters begin to think, "well one of them is lying, let's throw them all out." Next time, hold a closed door caucus meeting and vote the dude out of caucus and then have him resign immediately afterwards.

Next, take some blame. Say "hindsight is 20/20, but we should have heeded the warnings signs." Fire the staffer who tried to shove it under the rug that day too. Offer to have a full investigation after the election by the ethics committee.

Offer bills to reform the page program so that members cannot get too close, since appearantly pages in the well of the House are like Cookies in a jar.

In fact, the handling looks so bad that I am beginning to think this a coup to chop off the head of the GOP House leadership. Rep. Blunt lost the Maj. Leader race, and with Boehner, Hastart, and Reynolds all implicated in this scandal, he could become speaker/min. leader. Blunt could blame the loss of control on those guys, and cruise up the leadership ladder. And if the Dems win is very narrow, and 2008 is a big GOP year, his 4 year plan for the Speakership is done.

Or this could be a plan to purify the GOP by arch conservatives, social and economic. There is a list of Gay GOP staffers going around, ripe for posting on the internet and blacklisting. Some religious conservatives are blaming Foley's behavior oh his homosexuality. You don't see Barney Frank propositioning pages though. The current GOP in the House spend like drunken sailors with wads of cash, lust for power like they lust for pages and mistresses. The fist rots at the head as they say, and boy does that fish stink.

SLCo DA neck and neck

This race interests me because I will in all likelihood be applying for a position with the District Attorney about a year from now. And right now, my would be boss is unknown.



Another interesting finding is that

Gill has a lot more money in his war chest to get him through the last month of the election. According to recent financial reports filed with the county, Gill has approximately $30,099 left in his campaign fund, while Miller has $1,699.
Throughout the campaign, Miller has raised $94,338, while Gill has total contributions of $116,613.
Other races for Salt Lake County elected positions aren't nearly as close, with incumbents holding commanding leads, according to the poll.

By commanding they mean 60-40 races.
So with Gill's money edge, slight polling (within the margin of error) edge, and slightly superior billboards, it will all come down to turn out. Will Jim's massive cash edge and GOTV machine help Sim? Will it be a Democratic year in Utah too? These questions will all soon be answered in a month's time.

I love elections, as Herold Ford said, it's like Christmas. Except the day after Christmas has never been depressing for me.

Quote of the Day

"It’s hard for Americans, all of us, including me, to understand what’s wrong with these people,... Why do they hate each other? Why do Sunnis kill Shiites? How do they tell the difference? They all look the same to me." fmr. Maj. Leader Trent Lott (R-MS)

Remember these is representative of Republican leadership.

Sensenbrenner demands UT re-redistricting

Lame duck House Judiciary chairman Sensenbrenner, the author of the immigration bill that caused mass protests in the spring, now demands that Utah's legislature go into special session to approve the four-district map Huntsman proposed.

...Sensenbrenner, R-Wisc., says he won't allow a full hearing on a bill to give Utah a fourth seat and the District of Columbia its first vote in Congress until Utah lawmakers have a 'final Utah redistricting plan,'

This plan would make the second district a safe seat for Democrats, signaling the state GOP has given up beating Jim Matheson.

It looks like this will happen, with absolutely no input from Democrats on Salt Lake's Capitol Hill. "The governor is willing to call a special session, if appropriate,” said spokesman Mike Mower.

What Republicans don't understand is that this scheme may net two Democratic seats: one from D.C. (who really deserve representation anyway) and one more from Utah (assuming Jim runs in the new 4th or new 3rd and a decent [aka not Rocky] Democrat runs in the new 2nd). Hopefully, no one powerful in Utah or D.C. reads this blog.

Photo of the day

Your liberal media at work:

hattip: Rising Hegemon
The U.S. media is still fearful of the right wing noise machine (RWNM), so afraid of reporting the truth because when they do, the RWNM screams "liberal."

American media is anything but liberal. Individual journalists may be socially liberal, but the overal slant is risk-adverse against charges of liberal bias. So they go for celebrity or proxy celebrity. In this case, Annie Liebowitz, the photographer of the stars and most recently of Tom Cruise's baby. With all that is going on in the world, is that really the most important piece of news for the past week?

If you are going to do a proxy story on Tom Cruise's baby, why don't you contrast that with Brad Pitt's baby, and how the two stars decided to publicize their child's birth. Cruise gave an exclusive to some magazine and fancying photographer for millions. Pitt and Jolie had an auction for the photos to go to charity and also publicized a country at the same time. How many more teenybopers have now heard of Namibia that didn't even know it existed?

Why not do a story on how Bush is losing Afghanistan AND Iraq? That is big news for the U.S. and the world because it means terrorist may be at our collective doorsteps soon. It also means there will be one more failed state since 2001 than there was before. Iraq might have been ruled by an evil dictator, but it was under control.

mapmakers

Mapmaker, mapmaker, make me a map...
Draw it up so one party wins, forget those Constitutions...

OK so maybe I am making a terrible parody of "Matchmaker" from "Fiddler on the Roof," but I do have a point. Here it is:

Huntsman, House Speaker Greg Curtis and Senate President John Valentine - all Republicans - endorsed a map Wednesday for four congressional districts, in which Matheson would represent northern Salt Lake County and Summit and Morgan counties.

Even in that super GOP year of 2002, Jim got 60% from his portion of Salt Lake County. By "Northern Salt Lake County" they probably mean: Rose Park, West Valley, Magna, Salt Lake City, and a few others...in otherwords, the most Democratic parts of the state. Add to that Park City and Morgan country for fun and you have a super safe Democratic seat. I haven't checked, but I bet if you look at the Utah Democratic Party's 2001 redistricting plan, this district would look awefully similar. Jim proposed a more consolidated district based on areas of interest, not voting patterns in 2001.

Matheson's spokeswoman Alyson Heyrend refused Wednesday to comment on the new proposal.
"This is the governor's map, and the Republican leaders' map," Heyrend said. "They're going to have to answer questions about the map. It's not Matheson's map."
In a statement, Matheson said there was a compromise bill that took partisanship out of the formula, "until one member of Congress blocked the bill's progress. If it gets unstuck, I look forward to voting for it. But clearly, the ball is in the majority party's court."
Heyrend did say that Matheson will vote for the bill to give Utah a fourth seat - with or without the at-large provision - if it makes it to the House floor.

Good point Alyson. But I disagree with MD Rep. Steny Hoyer who thinks that having Congress drawing up their districts is a bad idea. Right now, they delegate that to their cronyies in their local state houses, while giving them input on what they actually want. What Congress should do, is set up minimal conditions for a fair district and then let localities decide. For example, they should be as compact as possible, using town/city and county lines, with "communities of interests" kept in mind.

That is, Utah could have one rural district, one district centered around Utah County/Southern SL County, one based around Davis/Weber/Morgan/Toole County, and one based around Salt Lake/Summitt County. This would help everyone, all districts would be 55-60% Republican, addressing the needs of the communities and not playing favorities or ignoring certain areas.

Will Utah get a 4th district? Maybe. Will this scheme be challenged in the courts? Probabbly if it passes. Will Jim happily take his safe seat, or mess up the GOPs plans and run in the 4th (with S. SL County, which loves him, and St. George which is starting to love him, and Iron County, his ancestral home)? I could really see Jim running in the 4th, winning and giving another Democrat (please no Rocky) a chance in the Democratic-leaning new 2nd.

35,000 hits

I know sites like DailyKos gets this many hits in a hour or so, but I just reached a milestone.

Thanks to the readers who have kept me in check.

Today I want to talk about Iraq. In northern Iraq, the Kurdish controlled areas have outlawed the Iraqi flag and only flag a flag of Iraqi Kurdistan. Something that I am sure Turkey just loves (they have Kurdish majorities in Eastern Turkey). Meanwhile, hundreds are being murdered every day in that country, and Bagdad is being walled off. The nominal head of Iraq is trying to get as tight with Shia-mullah controlled Iran.

So to recap, as a result of this war, we have created a civil war between Shia and Shi'ite with Kurds seeking their own country. This battered and divided country is now closely alligned with Iran, who is 5-10 years away from a nuclear weapon. Iran is now the new head of the middle east. Although Saudia Arabia has the money and Mecca, Iran leads the new ideological mindset of the Arab world.

We made one of our axis of evil more powerful (by assuming Iraq), as well as North Korea (by letting their nuclear program accellerate). We spent hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis lives.

Oh and the Taliban has regrouped and about to take back Afghanistan, Al Qaeda has grown more amorphous and harder to crush, bin Laden is still loose. And I got 35,000 hits.

How to win as a Democrat in Utah

Have Rocky critize you. SLC Mayor Ross Anderson is very unpopular and a boogy man to the right. It looks like Jim Matheson just lucked out. But SLCo. GOPers think this was coordinated:

"I think it's coordinated with Matheson's campaign. He's helping Matheson win re-election," Evans told a University of Utah communication class this week. "It's another cynical ploy. It's vintage Rocky. He operates like [he's playing a game] in three-dimensional chess."
Both Matheson and Anderson dispute the conspiracy theory.
"That's crazy talk," Matheson said.
And Anderson called Evans "paranoid and looney."
But Evans' comments reveal the political implications of the spat. Conventional wisdom would say that anything the mayor does or says boomerangs outside of Salt Lake City. If he advises "Don't vote for Matheson," conservative Utah voters might give the congressman a second look. Rather than pushing voters toward Brister, Anderson's criticism of his fellow Democrat could pull voters away from Republican candidate LaVar Christensen and guarantee a Matheson win.

I discussed earlier today how LaVar has terrible signs, and previously how he has no money. But now with Rocky out there doing the reverse physcology for Jim, it is all over.

The article claims that having Rocky go after a Democrat helps that Democrat with conservatives who lean GOP. But really, it helps them with Democrats too. Afterall, Rocky isn't running for reelection is he? And Jim's support amoung Democrats is around 90%.
Ex-SLC Mayor and father of 2007 candidate Jenny Wilson, Ted Wilson has a more apt analysis about what's going on:

"It is almost more about Rocky than it is about Jim," Wilson said. "Rocky's deepest conviction is that we're all too timid in what we say. There's a tendency in Rocky to say whatever's in his mind.
He's the most unfiltered political leader I've ever known."

I applaud Rocky for cutting the city's green house gas levels, and I like the public art around, but other than that, he has been a complete disaster.

I think Rocky has a future as a reverse lobbyist at the State Legislature. All he has to do is go up there and proudly support or oppose something...and watch the opposite happen. It is smart politics for any Democrat this year to pick a fight with Rocky. Smarter still to have Rocky pick a fight with you.

America needs better billboard slogans

Over the weekend I was running some errands and saw several poltical billboard for big candidates running this fall. I will tell you the slogans, then take them apart, and give my vote...but I would love to hear yours.

"America Needs Utah"
"Justice First"
"Experience Matters"
"The Real McCoy"

These are two Democrats, two Republicans, two terrible slogans and two not so bad ones.

St. Rep. LaVarr Christensen wins the prize for worst slogan: America Needs Utah. What does that mean? You are driving on the freeway or a state highway like 700 East and you see this sign, what are you supposed to think? He represents "Utah values" (aka LDS dogma)? Jim Matheson doesn't represent his state? I just don't understand what LaVarr is trying to get at. Moreover, the photo they chose is terrible...he looks like a cross between a horse and chipmunk. Grade: F-

Second to last place is St. Sen. Scott McCoy, or "the Gay" as Sen. Buttars calls him. His attempts at being clever fail miserably as cliched as they come. there was more to the slogan, but I can't even remember it...something like "people over politics" or something. And I am one of the most informed/interested voters in his district. That shows you something. He also gets a demotion for his campaign literature with the title "You've got issues." I really hope he didn't know they alternative meaning of that line. Grade: C--.

Attorney Loha Miller comes in second in a tight race for best slogan. The republican nominee for DA, Justice First is a pretty good slogan. But is that a subtle jab at the current DA, saying that politics comes first, or what? The reason she got second place was the "ask a cop" logo over a badge, in apparant reference to her endorsement to current SL Co. Sheriff Aaron Kennard [R](who is also up this year)...at least that is what I could come up with. What does ask a cop mean? Was she endorsed by a policeman union? If so, that would have been better than ask a cop. Every time I see her signs, I wonder what that means. Also, the colors are not compelling. Grade: B+

SLC Attorney Sim Gill wins for the best billboard. Sim's is simple: white background, read and blue letters. "Experience Matters" clearly says "i have relevant experience that my opponent doesn't have" which is true. Sim was an DDA here before he got ELECTED as the City Attorney, she contracts out misdemeanor cases for small municipalities within county limits. He has tried many more cases, more complex cases, than Loha. That complex message is boiled down to "experience matters" without losing much of the punch. Grade: A-

the taxman cometh

Despite the fact that enforcement budgets are down and Ohio churches helped orchestrate Bush's 2004 victory (and were not investigated), the IRS has taken upon itself to investigate the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). From Forbes:

the Internal Revenue Service has revoked the DLC's tax exemption on the grounds that it primarily benefited a private group--Democrats, and particularly "New Democrats" running for or holding office--rather than the community at large. The DLC has sued in federal court to overturn the decision; the outcome could affect the spreading use (abuse?) of tax-exempts by politicians and those seeking to influence them. Convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff is just one character who has used money from tax-exempts to get the attention of legislators.

By that standard, there are many other tax exempt groups that should have their status revoked, namely GOP-leaning ones.

The DLC also points to other issue-flavored (c)(4)s--Empower America, the Log Cabin Republicans and the Republican Main Street Partnership--whose founders are identified with one party. And it says the Democrat-only workshops ate up less than 5% of a $4 million annual budget while 70% went for publications available to the public.

The DLC does not seek to elect or endorse candidates, it only trains candidates in messaging, invites them to conferences to meet other candidates and big donors, and writes stuff on what Democrats should do policy-wise. And liberals on the blogosphere doubt that Democrat part because some of the prominant senior DLC folks are supporting Joe Lieberman, who is no longer a Democrat.

When I was working there, my bosses said over and over again how careful we had to be about not sounding too political, because "we have gotten in trouble with the IRS before" what I didn't know is that

The IRS began auditing the DLC in 1999 and in 2002 revoked its exemption for 1997, 1998 and 1999 (all the years audited), hitting it with a $20,083 back tax bill.

And if you don't think this is a partisan, ideological thing, then why is the Justice Department hiring Nader-founded Public Citizen to defend the IRS from the DLC's suit?

If there is any group DLCer hate close to as much as Republicans, it is Naderites. And if there is anything I hate more than hypocrisy, it is when it comes with partisan goals attached...and when Forbes manages to squeeze as many Jack Abramoff references into a story that is about a Democratic group that seeks to be tax-free, even though Abramoff was a college Republican and never gave a dime to Democrats. Hell, he was wearing an elephant tie to his sentencing hearing.

And don't say moral equalavence to me, Abramoff used charities as shams-- funnellers of money from one group to the next politican's pocket. There is simply no comparison Steve Forbes. The DLC may be organized to help a particular political group become powerful, but what 501(c)(4) isn't?

the importance of political stunts

People these days seem to confuse political stunts with grandstanding. Grandstanding, for the most part is what politicians do when other politicians complain of "political stunts," like pulling out an obscure (to Bill Frist) Senate rule to halt the Senate and force WMD's to be discussed. Grandstanding is "performing ostentatiously so as to impress an audience." That is, being Senator Joe Biden, who gives lengthy lectures to judicial nominees from his seat at the Judiciary Committee.

Political stunts, however, are guerilla tactics to get free media to a candidate or incumbent. For example, Democratic Candidate for the US House from North Carolina Larry Kissel copied another Democratic Candidate from Kentucky for the US House (whose name escapes me) by offering constituents gas at pre-incumbent prices to make a point that gasoline has become much more expensive since Congressman X went to DC...why isn't he doing anything about it? the gimmick attracted local news stories, and more importantly, potential voters to the candidates name and message, however briefly.

More recently, MO Secretary of State and US Senate Candidate Claire McCaskill bought 100 St. Louis Rams tickets so as to avoid a TV blackout for fans who can't afford said tickets. She then was able to get on local TV, giving away the tickets to charities for needy children or something. For $44,000, she got lots of favorable press coverage, more name ID, and appreciative Rams fans who might vote for her because of it.

Kissell's gambit also cost a couple thousand dollars, but it was well worth it, just Google his name and gas and see how many local news stories you see.

The key is, if done correctly, a candidate can get a dirt cheep positive issue ad out. One that sends a message that "I care about things that matter to you, and Congressman/Senator X doesn't."

Closer to home, Jim Matheson does this by donating his pay raise to charity. It is only a few thousand dollars each time, but it generates national coverage. Every year, some editorial board mentions his name about how more members of Congress should be like Jim and forgo their auto COLA. Every year, Jim gets to pick a needy charity who benefits from the money, and the coverage.

When ever people complain about political stunts, see if it is really grandstanding (to Biden). If so, join the chorus. But if it is truly a political stunt, you know they are just jealous they didn't come up with it first.

where I was today

Although the criminal clinic officially started a couple weeks ago, for me it really started today. I skipped class and played prosecutor for the day, wearing a suit and tie...well my one and only suit with the only tie that matches it that I own.

Anyway, I got to argue the motions that I had written a couple weeks ago in front of a Justice Court judge, against a member of the bar with a real defendant sitting there, and I pretty much succeeded. The facts and the law were overwhelmingly on my side, so I am not here to boast.

In fact, the defense attorney did his best to obfuscate the issues at trial with other matters and a long windbag style that had me befuddled too. Why would 6 months of logs for a breathalyzer be necessary for his case if we gave him an affidavit that said it was checked prior to and after the breath test was conducted and the machine was functioning properly? Why would he need a 911 tape of a witness who said he saw the defendant driving drunk when we had the eyewitness present in the courtroom to testify and the tape had been destroyed per administrative procedure? Why on God's green Earth did it take nearly 3 hours to resolve those issues and the legality of a semi-standard stop and arrest?

He pulled out cases that had nothing to do with the matter and tried to connect them. He decided to whap down the print on the State's table as if that lent them more authority. It was exaspirating. And after all that, I discovered that one of my motions was not delivered to the other side, so the judge gave him time to respond to my response, and cut off my argument.

I am almost certain that his motion will fail, but it sure was frustrating. My supervising attorney told me that I had had enough for several trials and that I had earned my stripes today. So I returned home happy, tired, but annoyed.

How was your day?

where were you?

For my Parents generation, everyone knew where they were when they heard Kennedy was shot. They remember lots of trivial things about that moment that make it seem alive again. For my Grandparents, it was Pearl Harbor. But for my generation, it will be where you were when you heard that the twin towers had been struck by Al Qaeda (not Saddam, you crazy 30%).

I remember getting up at about 9 something (I didn't have class that day until 10:30), looking out the window into the clear blue sky and feeling a pleasantly warm breeze on my face. The feeling of happiness and calm passed over me. I thought "what a nice day." Boy was I wrong. I turned on my computer and chatted with a mutual friend of my now wife's and mine, and she told me what happened. She is a woman who subscribed to the New York Times as a student and prides herself on being well-informed. So I belived her, yet it seemed so fantastic. So I went into the common room and turned on the TV...and like election night 2000, our TV didn't turn off for days.

What dark days those were, with the anthrax scare that followed. Yet we all had hope, we saw people coming together to do brave and simple things for the good of all and felt the condolances from our allies. Five years later, we can see of far Bush has pissed it away. No one trusts the U.S. government at its word any more (save those 30%), we have more enemies, more trained people trying to kill our countrymen, and less places to travel without feeling disliked than ever before.

I get a bit choaked up when I think about those firefighters rushing up the stairs, the people who carried disabled co-workers down 90 plus flights, the passengers who charged United 93's cockpit...but then I get so angry when I think about all those who have died in Iraq for a war of choice that should have been much further down the priority list (behind Iran, N. Korea, Syria, and certainly Al Qaeda itself).

Please use the comments section to tell me where you were on that fateful Tuesday morning.

Huntsman sticks it to the poor, again

Hot off the heals of jamming through his two tiered (with a new flat tax) tax system for his wealthy collegues, Jon Jr. now cut hundreds of hungry Utahns off food stamps. The Salt Lake Tribune reports:

About 875 Utahns lost their food stamps last month under a new policy that anti-hunger advocates say they would have opposed had they known about it.
That's fewer than 2 percent of the 54,750 households on food stamps in any given month. But it's the neediest 2 percent, mostly chronically homeless men and women, say advocates who complain the policy was never publicly vetted.

Good job also hunger advocates, who missed the boat on this one, thinking that more people would be covered under the new plan. Also, Huntsman's stooges didn't follow Administrative Rulemaking proceedures, calling it a temporary fix to a "crisis" that there is isn't enough food stamps to go around.

"In the past, Utah has never exhausted its limit and should be able to roll over cases from last year or borrow from next year's allotment," said [ Bill] Tibbetts [, an advocate for the Anti-Hunger Coalition]. "I'm not sure why state officials kept this under wraps. It makes you wonder, are there other major changes in policy that we don't know about?"

I bet there are. You don't seem to be doing your job very well, since Huntsman is pretty crafty.

Utah, the army of God, and the US Army

One of my more liberal friends has pointed out to me that Utah has one of the lowest armed forces participation rate, yet is one of the few remaining supporters of Bush and Iraq. The Deseret News proves her right:

total military (Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines) recruits per 1,000 youths in fiscal year 2005, put Utah near the bottom of all states, with 2.5 per 1,000 youths ages 15-24. The top two states were Montana and Texas, at 5.7 and 5.2 per 1,000, with the national average being 3.8 per 1,000.
One reason for Utah's low ranking may be linked to the large number of young men in Utah who serve two-year missions for The Church Of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to both the NPP and an Army recruiter in West Valley City.

I don't see why that should matter. Maybe young men (and women) will be off a mission for up to two years, but that doesn't mean they can't join up once they get home. Are they saying that LDS youth get all their world traveling and being away from home and family out of their system by going on a mission?

This article is heavy on facts, and light on analysis. I think the mission explanation is used almost as an excuse for every atyptical stat on Utah. Then there is this factiod that is left hanging...

The NPP considers low- to middle-income neighborhoods to be those having a median household income between $30,000 and $55,000, a group the NPP says is "over-represented" in active-duty Army recruits. The NPP makes its comparison to recruits coming from "wealthier" areas, where NPP says the median household income is above $55,000. The latter group was already "under-represented" in active-duty Army numbers for new recruits, according to NPP's data from the previous year.

The article doesn't answer the question, nor does the NPP research director, but the answer is prety obvious. Military recruiters target poor, ill-educated neighborhoods, figuring that the military's "we'll pay for college and trips around the world" pitch will play better with people that can afford neither than those who send junior to the Ivy-League and on trips to Europe.

The poor are also those most in need of a good paying job that has low skill-level requirements. And the military offers that as well (obviously, they train people and also hire highly skilled folks as well).

Of course, people making over $55,000 and less than $100,000 are probabbly what you and I would call middle class, not wealthier. And over all, military recruiting has dropped rapidly as the Iraq war as dragged on...none of which should be surprising. It is a lot less fun traveling the world when your people will be trying to kill you along the journey.

recommendations

Today I find myself in the strange position of writing my own recommendation for a supervisior at work. Obviously those reading do not know her voice, but they might reccognize mine from my cover letter. Busy people typically request you write the letter for them, and then they get to skim it and sign it.

But I have trouble say wonderful things about myself while pretending someone else. Any advise from readers out there?

utah's schools need help

I hope everyone had a great Labor Day weekend (thanks, Labor). I certainly did. Taking a break from blogging and catching up on family, friends and pop culture certainly was nice.

Today I spotted an article in the Deseret Morning News about a school building a yurt. And while the article is supposed to be about how cool this school is, complete with trips to Mexico and Washington DC, the fact that there isn't enough space for all the children in most Utah schools is the real story.

The circular, tent-like building will serve as an addition to the Walden School of Liberal Arts — it's cheaper than a portable classroom — while the administrators continue to raise money for a new building on 2 1/2 acres on University Avenue that they purchased for $560,000.
School administrators would like a 20,000-square-foot building by next school year, but they are discussing financing options. "We don't know if it will be ready," school director Diana West said. "It's looking less and less likely."

Charter schools often face the utter lack of a building, while normal public schools face inadaquate space.

The Beehive State has the nation's biggest classes, with an average teacher-to-student ratio of 1-to-23 students. The national average is 1-to-15.6. Teachers say those ratios don't do the problem justice: Those in big school districts say high schools can have 40 or more students per class.

And parents agree: a Dan Jones poll conducted mid-August showed that "82 percent of Davis County residents said their schools were overcrowded, with 78 percent in Salt Lake County, 79 percent in Utah County and 72 percent in Weber County answering the same way. Elsewhere in Utah, 70 percent of residents said their classrooms are crowded."

Even 39%--a plurality--said we should definity raise taxes to pay for reducing overcrowding, and 43% in another question said the surplus should go to schools. Yet what did the legislature do this session? Spend billions on bonds for construction of roads canals and the like that won't even begin for years to come. And what does Jon Huntsman Jr. want to do with any budget surplus? Create a tax break for the super rich.

I was blessed to be able to attend a school in Utah with small class sizes from pre-k to 12th grade, but the only place to find that is a private school. Even small towns now band together to create large schools.

If Democrats take back Congress this fall, then help will be on the way. House Democrats in the past have sought to give local government's favorable school construction/repair/remodeling loans, and I am sure they would propose to do so in the future. The same goes for teacher training and recruitment programs, which would forgive student loans for those who decide to teach primary and secondary school for a couple years.

Certainly, the fact that Utah has more of its population under 15 than any other state in the nation, and that Utah is also one of the poorer states doesn't help matters. But we as a state shouldn't be making the situation worse by giving new tax breaks to the ultra-wealthy and buying more roads we shouldn't build. [We need to make our urban areas more compact and more public transit accessable to reduce traffic] I urge parents to talk to their legislators who are asking for their votes this November to promise them to make reducing class sizes and overcrowding the number one priority for them next session.

on protests

(Photo Credit: Leah Hogsten--The Salt Lake Tribune)

So there was a "large" anti-war/Bush protest in downtown SLC today, that is about a couple thousand people. Blow hard Mayor Rocky Anderson spoke. I saw it on the channel 2 jumbotron on Main Street, and I looked at the window as my TRAX train passed by.

Of all the people to protest to, however, Bush is the worst one to do. He doesn't care what the people think, especially now that he cannot run for re-election. If you protested Clinton, he might care because he loves people and wants everyone to love him (child of a alcoholic). Bush is charming, but he doesn't really enjoy people as people, only certain people. That is, he likes people who agree with him and no one who disagrees with him.

Moreover, I get extremely annoyed with ultra-liberals. They tend to want to talk about their pet issues, to go through the laundry list of greivences, rather than to stay focused and stick to a clear message that everyone can agree with. 55% of Americans want a change of course in Iraq. They don't necessarily want to impeach Bush, or take on Haliburton etc.

In the fall of 2002, I argued with people whom I thought would be the most receptive to preventing the war in Iraq: the DLC. As an employee, I tried to convince the higher ups that Saddam wasn't a threat, that there probabbly weren't any WMD's, that Bush would mismanage the occupation like he did in Afghanistan, that the war would be a big mistake. Of course, they didn't listen that much (but they did conceed that Bush probabbly would mismanage the occupation), and cheerleaded this disasterous policy. But I knew that grabbing a placcard and marching would have been even less effective.

That isn't to say that protests and marching in the streets in general is fruitless. The immigration march in the spring proved that protests are still very effective in the US. I just think protesting this president on this policy with this crowd is a waste of time and effort. But if it makes you feel better, have at it.

Photo of the day

MSGOP anchor Rita Cosby, who 'interviewed' ex-Rep. Tom DeLay right after his indictment, tries to get another scoop.

I am so glad that the media can stop its inane coverage of what's his bucket who wasn't even in the state when that little girl was killed. Now we can focus on some other funny images...

On the way to school today, I saw an astroturf pro-Bush banner on a GOP building owner (he is giving money to GOP SLCo. DA candidate Lola Miller so that she will move the DA's office to his building next year when the lease runs up). [It said "Thank you President Bush, you are our Hero!"] Then a few blocks later, I saw a lampost banner for a play at the University of Utah: George Orwell's 1984. Oh the irony. Eat that Atlantis!

traffic and the White House

So taxpayers and Utah drivers suffered this morning so that Condi and or Rummy could get to their political stunt on time. I was walking to court when I noticed that none of the lights on State Street had changed in quite some time. In fact, the various South's were jammed back with cars, trucks, buses, and TRAX all dutifly waiting for UDOT to escourt the two White House official most complicit (other than Cheney and Bush) in the utter disasters in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, western Turkey, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, and of course their latest hit, Iran.

Why should the American people have to pay for politicans to give political speeches in the guise of policy? Why should states and local governments have to foot the bill for increased security when said politicans show up? Why can't the RNC or DNC or PACs pay for such nonsense? Because of the WH communications dept's ideas of salvaging their boss' political future rests on tired old rhetoric in front of favorable crowds in favorable cities, hundreds of cases were delayed or continued, hundreds of drivers were late to work, late delivering, late to classes, missed appointments, meetings, subpeonas.

And for what? What new did they say today that they haven't said a million times before? They should have just FedEx'ed a tape of an old speech, few would have noticed the difference.

Do-no-wrong Mayor

The Salt Lake Tribune conducted a Poll on the soccer deal. Guess who won: Corroon.

"Despite reversing course - Corroon argues the terms of the new deal are considerably more favorable - the mayor's approval rating has jumped to 72 percent, according to the new survey."

So even though 55% of Salt Lake County residents oppose the new soccer deal, more people approve of Carroon.

Voters have grown to trust Peter Carroon, they see him as an honest broker and a non-partisan who is looking out for them. And I must say, upon reviewing the new terms of the deal, the County comes out ahead. Appearantly, you don't try to play hardball with Carroon, because he wins.

I think we just might call him Governor or Senator in 2012 or so.

the definition of stupidity

"The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." — Albert Einstein

A new article in the Salt Lake Tribune lays this message out somewhat subtly.

Last year, President Bush came to Salt Lake for a older military veteran club conference, hoping to kick off a campaign that would rebound his support (at least amoung his conservative base) on the Iraq War and in general. Of course, Bush went down hill from there amoung all Americans and now somewhere between 55-60% of Americans disapprove of the course we are staying on in Iraq...and have done so for several months now. This was due in no small part to what happened the day after Bush spoke to the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW): Katrina.

"That just dominated all other issues - local and national issues," Utah Republican Party Chairman Joe Cannon said. "There's no question that Katrina sucked the wind out of everything, including the president's views on Iraq.
"And that was the story for months."

It laid bare that Bush's cronyism, incompetance, and ideology over reality can directly hurt Americans back home too, and not just those who signed up to join the armed forces.

This year, the Bush White House is sending not just Bush, but Condi and Rummy to an American Legionniares conference in Salt Lake in an attempt to bail out his, and his party's, abismal approval ratings. Also this year, another storm looms in the Carribean threatening New Orleans, whose leeves are admittedly still not up to snuff.

At the time of Bush's last speech in Salt Lake City, about 38 percent of adults nationwide supported his handling of the war in Iraq, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll. This month, the same pollsters found just 30 percent of the country still felt confident in Bush's war leadership.

And yet, they try again to convince us with the same "cut and run" language that they are right and we--the majority--are wrong.

And although the majority of Utahns still support Bush because he is a religious conservative man who is in power, the rest of America is willing to give Democrats a shot at Congress. Were that 2006 were 2004, and Bush's days would truely be numbered. As it is, he will stubbornly hang around as investigations reveal the true disasterousness of his presidency.

My own view? Iraq may need to be divided into three states now, with UN/NATO peacekeepers squelching the violence as much as possible, a giant Yugoslavia of our own making. The US military cannot bomb our way into ending a civil war, we need Arab allies and other nations to go back into Iraq and try to create peace and stability, but none I fear will want to go. The Iraqis on some level don't trust us anymore, but we cannot leave them to their own devices...some sort of troops need to be there. Right now, Iraq and Afghanistan are failed states, breeding grounds for terrorists and extremists of all sorts. We can't let them stay that way.

In order to win this war that started on September 11, 2001, the people of the middle east need hope: hope that they can get a good paying job to support their family, hope that they can walk down the streets and go shopping without fearing death or pain, hope that life can get better, hope that their leaders are responsive to their needs, hope for peace and security. All these people have now is dispair.

This means creating a viable Palistinan state, complete with access to jobs, housing, and drinking water. This means ending corruption and cronyism in middle east countries. This means ending using hate and religion to keep the public distracted from a failure of governing. Of course this is a tall order, but Europe too was mired in nasty religious wars for centuries until the end of World War II. The creation of the EU, NATO, and the Warsaw Pact helped create peace, stability and economic growth. Now, a war in Europe is a laughable idea.

Oh and if you think things are terrible in the middle east now, wait until the oil really starts to run out.