2008--who's out before they know it

1. Evan Bayn. Dan of Kentucky Democrat and other Bayh fans will notice that I did not include him my ranking of Democratic presidential hopefuls. That is because is an afterthought, not just to me but to primary voters as well. Here is a telling example:
   

   "Both Senators Evan Bayh and Barack Obama will be in New Hampshire this weekend. While staff members for Bayh may have to scramble to find 50 people to show up for his three events, Obama has a guaranteed audience of 2,225," according to the Boston Globe.
   
   "Both Obama events are sold out, the organizers say. All 750 free tickets to attend a book signing in Portsmouth were grabbed up in just one day. In addition 1,500 people have bought tickets to see him at a rally celebrating Democratic victories in the state. People from 13 states have bought tickets to attend the rally."

   
   A book signing--of a number 1 best seller--versus a all but in name only presidential campaign event, and it is not even close. Sure Bayh was governor of Indiana, but that was because of his Dad Birch, who was beloved. He obviously wasn't a bad governor, otherwise he wouldn't have been such a landslide Senate winner each time. But still, have you read his presidential book? DLCers told me it was a terrible 'read,' and that they bought the book out of pity. Not too intellectual or charismatic a person either. Oh and being on some committee in the Senate does not count as "national security experience." Otherwise, Joe Biden would have a chance.



2. Al Gore. I saw him on Oprah the other day...and he was the Al Gore of February 2001. Fat, tired looking, boring and uncharismatic/unfunny. I think people forget how great a job the filmmakers of 'An inconvenient truth' were. They made a long slide show by Al Gore interesting. And not just the slide show. The movie was about the man who nearly was president...about what it is like to find your purpose after suffering the most public loss in the history of mankind. Al, it seems to me, never wanted to be a politician. He loved learning about stuff, and really cared about the environment first and for most. There were other wonky things he loved, but clearly running for President wasn't one of those. Al Gore, Sr. wanted to be president and I believe that Al Jr. ran to fulfill his father's dying wish. After Al ran one of the worst campaigns ever, he was relieved of his duty to run.
   
   He still wants to be relevant and listened to, and he has some good things to say, but he is not going to run. Al would have made a great president. I volunteered for him the weekend before the elections in NH. I loved the movie. But I cannot and don't have to support him in 2008. Al Gore for EPA chair 2009!

The Biden's, the Gravel's, the Vilsack's, the Brownback's, the Kucinich's, they are too obvious and too fun to watch fall flat on their faces.

Wes Clark 2008

That's right, I know it is a bit early, but I am fully behind the General. All signs point to Clark entering into the 2008 race soon. "I think it was clear that I got in too late last time," Clark told the Associated Press.

I do too, but what also hurt Clark was that a Senator for Massachusetts somehow claimed he was electable with foreign policy experience. Great work Iowa Caucus goers. He needed more money (although he did pretty well on that score), better staff (just say no to Gore 2000 staffers like Chris Lehane), and more experience with being in the public limelight of presidential politics.

Clark learned how the game is played: Iowa is the key normally in a front loaded calendar like this. But if Vilsack hangs on until January of 2008, he will moot Iowa. Some have said that he is just doing this for Hillary. That's gotta hurt. Anyway, if Vilsack doesn't do an 11th hour endorsement, the key will be 2nd and 3rd place in Iowa.

Those folks will have a leg up in NH. Since no New Englanders are running this time (it seems Kerry finally got the hint), NH should go to that 2nd or 3rd placer. Meanwhile, Nevada will happen. Look for the media to down play the Silver State because they know the best B&B's in the Granite State by now and have their reservations already set. Next, the calendar swings to SC. If it is still neck and neck, I would bet on Edwards winning this with Hillary/Obama (it is either one or the other in my book) and Clark on his heals.

I think Clark has a strong chance. Here is what I recommend: hire the veteran campaign staffers of Virginia, Montana, and Missouri, get on a plane to Las Vegas right now to protest along side those striking Nurses, do an interview with MyDD mid-2007 (not Josh Marshall), hire as many veteran IA and NH staffers as you can right now, speak out against the fetal pain bill in the lame duck, make a statement to the press that you don't like Democrats talking bad about straw men 'liberals,' have your son go on talk radio again and tell it like it is, poo-poo McCain's mythical 20k-more-troops-will-solve-everything plan.

If he does those things, he will shore up his weaknesses from 2004 (lack of support on Domestic Issues) and burnish his key strength (4 star general who WON a ethnic/religious based civil war involving Muslims with allies). Good luck, General.

Utah's 4th dead

No lame duck 4th seat for Utah. So says outgoing Majority Leader John Boehner (unfortunately pronounced "BAY-nor"). But California Republican Dana Rohrbacker has an idea that I would support:

Rohrbacker has introduced legislation, and will reintroduce it next year, [his spokesman] said, that would allow residents of the district to vote in Maryland federal elections and also give Utah a fourth House seat to balance another Maryland seat essentially for the district.
Some scholars have said the measure could violate the Constitution's directive that members of the House come "from the several states." Other Constitutional experts disagreed, saying that Congress has broad discretion over the district.

I like it...Retrosecession, but only for voting, since Maryland clearly doesn't want Washington in there state to deal with, but Maryland Democrats would love to have their statewide office seats secured. Of course, there would be that little problem of the Electoral College, and that constitutional amendment that gives DC three EC votes.

I guess D.C.'s representative would not count towards Marylands EC votes, D.C. voters vote for US Senator from Maryland would not subtract their EC votes either. Still a bit awkward. But better than nothing.

Maybe Pelosi will allow this as an Amendment to the Davis bill if it is revived in the 110th Congress.

making their moves on Utah's 4th

And the first politician out of the gate is surprisingly a Democrat: Sen. Ed Mayne, D-West Valley, head of the Utah AFL-CIO:

Mayne [], for example, had tried to get his hometown completely into the new 4th District, so he could run for an open congressional seat in the future. But his house stayed several blocks within the 2nd District.
Mayne [] said he is still seriously thinking about a run for Congress. That could mean a move, into the 4th District, or running in the 4th District while living just outside the boundary (which is legal) or challenging the lone Utah Democrat in Congress, Rep. Jim Matheson, in the 2nd District.
"I really wanted to be in the new district. I think I could win that," Mayne said, noting he would be able to raise a lot money for the race through his union ties. "I'm going to be a threat in any district if I choose to run."

Mayne previously called the Mathesons and my Dad part of the "white wine Mercedes set" But that doesn't necessarily mean he would challenge Jim in the primary. He probably wants Jim to clear the field for him. On the GOP side, I think Mayne's colleague Mike Waddoups (R-Taylorsville) wants in too, having tried and failed to get all of Taylorsville into one district or another. Meanwhile, another Republican played Constitutional Scholar:

On the House floor, Rep. Julie Fisher, R-Fruit Heights, offered an amendment that would have adopted Plan L, but not place it into law until after Congress either gave Washington, D.C., back to Maryland (where its residents could vote as a citizen of that state), created a D.C. state or changed the U.S. Constitution to specially allow D.C. to have a voting member.

I shouldn't mock, I am glad someone is engaging constitutional analysis, but I doubt that is the real reason they voted no.

Utah's 4th, Iraq, and 2008

This will be a random collection of thoughts, as always. Sorry for not posting yesterday. I was writing an appellate brief and wanted to get a draft out.

• Utah and DC's seat deal remains valid in theory. The New York Times picked up the story, which makes it seem more likely this is going to happen after all. But the local papers are the ones with the actual news. Buried in the first couple paragraphs of the Deseret News' article yesterday was this gem on the "bipartisan" bill:
  

  The map passed the 23-4 in the Senate without any amendments, even though several changes were discussed during a nearly three-hour, closed- door GOP caucus.
  Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Pete Knudson, R-Brigham City, said there was interest in the proposed changes, but no one wanted to jeopardize the bill's passage by tinkering.

  
  Did you catch that part about GOP only amendments in a closed door three hour caucus? Somehow, I have a feeling that Sen. Waddoups got what he wished for during that meeting [final passed map in PDF]. Meanwhile, Democrats and the rest of the public had no input on this process, let alone a record of what traded what for what, or how much support there was for various changes. This is why Jim Matheson and Roz McGee is right redistricting, especially of state legislative seats, needs to be done by an independent commission, not self-interested politicians who are salivating at the chance at running in the new 4th and fancy themselves a member of Congress. I sure hope Jim rains on their little parade.


• Can you honestly tell me that you thoroughly read all the articles and books coming out daily about how messed up Iraq is? I wrote two papers in college about the Kurds and yet I can't stomach more than "X people died today in ___ when a ___ exploded" or "___ found ___ bodies ___ killed execution style" I can imagine that most Americans can't manage to read those articles or listen to the news in much detail about it either. Every day we are reminded how horrible life must be over there. Knowing the details just makes it all the more overwhelming and impossible to deal with in my book.
  That is not to say that we should whitewash the reporting. But don't expect everyone to read through all the extremely gory and depressing details.


• We are mere weeks away from candidates announcing their candidacy for the 2008 presidential race. What's that you say, Gravel, Biden, and Vilsack have already announced? Don't worry, they will reannounce in D.C. events (Sunday talk shows, the National Press Club, etc.) over and over again before they drop out in a few months. Here's how it looks to me for the GOP side in order: McCain, Romney, Giuliani, Brownback, Huckabee. On the Democratic side, it is very fluid. I expect that if Obama is one of the first out of the box announcing (and has some serious staff/implied endorsements on his side) Hillary will NOT RUN. I still think everyone in Hillaryland but Hillary wants to run for president. Maybe she would like to be President, but she knows better than anyone of the candidates what it takes to win and how tough it is to run. She has lots of money (13.5 M) but money only buys you name recognition and maybe improves your image. Everyone who votes already knows who she is and already has a strong opinion about her. I see the race like this: Obama/Hillary, Gore?, Edwards, Clark, Richardson, Vilsack, Dodd, Biden, Gravel. On the Veepstakes, I see Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee for the GOP and Warner, Obama, Clark, Vilsack, and Richardson for the Democrats. As always, my dream ticket is Clark-Warner, with Obama as AG and maybe as a Supreme Court Justice for the next opening.

as the 4th district turns

In this episode, we will go more into the chances of U.S. Rep. Tom Davis' (R-NoVA) DC-Utah House seat bill. ex-Sen. ex-VP candidate Jack Kemp and Mr. Davis believe the bill still has a chance:

"No one in our leadership has indicated to me that this is not possible," [] Davis [] said [] Friday. "The stars are aligned. The time is now."
...
"There remains a strong possibility of enacting the DC Voting Rights Act during the lame duck session of Congress," Kemp said. "Conversations I have had with House and Senate leadership about the bill have been positive and encouraging."

"No one [told] me [it's] not possible" and "strong possibility" are not exactly ringing endorsements of the bill's chances. That sounds like much less than the 50% that some pundits (like UVA's Larry Sabbato) have given the bill. When the media asked the Democrat most interested in the bill, this is what D.C.'s delegate told the Tribune:

Eleanor Holmes Norton[] says incoming speaker Nancy Pelosi has promised her continuing support of the bill if the GOP doesn't take up the measure next week. Pelosi is a co-sponsor of the legislation.
It's unclear, however, whether Utah will still be part of the legislation under a Democratic-controlled Congress.

So it sounds like D.C. could get its vote early in January and Utah might get nothing until 2012. But that's OK with the Tribune, whose headline reads "Utah voters' case pales in comparison with D.C.'s:"

While Utah has three U.S. House members and two senators, the district's nearly 600,000 residents have no vote in Congress, which, in addition to its other powers, controls the district's budget and laws.
...
"The people of Utah have expressed outrage over the loss of one congressional seat for the last six years," Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. testified before a congressional committee in September. "I share their outrage. I can't imagine what it must be like for American citizens to have no representation at all for over 200 years."

There is some interesting history about DC's attempts to get a vote that I didn't know about either

In 1978, Congress sent the states another constitutional amendment that would allow the district to have a House member, but only 16 of the required 38 states ratified the change, and it expired in 1985.
The district also called a Constitutional Convention in 1980, a state constitution was drafted for "New Columbia," and it was submitted to be part of the union. But it was all for naught. The amendment didn't pass.

And of course, almost all of us know why nothing has happened in terms of D.C. getting Congressional voting rights:

Mark David Richards is a political sociologist who did his doctoral dissertation on the history of the District of Columbia. He says for much of the time the district has been seeking full voting rights, the opposition derived, at least in part, from racial undertones. Blacks make up 62 percent of the district's population, according to the 2000 census.
But now, Richards says, some of the opposition to granting the district voting rights is pure politics - if the city gained a House member or senators, there's little doubt the Democrat-filled city would elect only those with donkeys on their campaign signs.

With Democrats in control of Congress, I don't know why they don't try the Davis bill or something else that gives DC a vote. Retrocession the District (save the National Mall and other Federal buildings) back to Maryland would work, but Maryland doesn't want to deal with the mess that Congress has made of DC. Why not just pass a bill to allow D.C. voters to vote in MD's senate race and give DC a vote in the House. Under the constitution, Congress can do whatever the hell it wants within the 10 miles square of the District (Art I, Sec. 8, cl. 17).

I will keep on this story dear reader until the Davis bill fails or another DC bill is brought up in the 110th Congress.

much politisan manuvering about nothing

Thomas Burr of the Trib starts his lede with this non-shocker: "Even as Utah state lawmakers prepare to head into special session to pass a four-seat congressional map in hopes of getting another House member, it's doubtful legislation dealing with the issue in Congress will make it to a vote next week."

Rep. Ben Ferry, R-Corinne, the one committee member who voted against Plan L, has proposed his own Plan M [PDF] because Plan L created a urban 2nd District. "Having a rural component in every district is very important," said Ferry, a Box Elder County stockman. "You try to have comprehensive seats . . . so representatives are aware of rural concerns."

Rep. Ferry, being aware of, caring about, and doing something about are three different things. If you jam in some rural voters into the 2nd on principle, it doesn't mean that Congressman or -woman will do anything for rural Utahns. So Plan M is dead on arrival right?

Sen. Mike Waddoups, R-Taylorsville, has said he also will propose another map at the special session because Plan L divides Taylorsville.
"We are open to any proposals," said Sen. Curt Bramble, a chairman of the 11-person Redistricting Committee. "But when you have a 10-1 vote coming out of committee - that is sending a pretty strong message."

That is saying no more than yes. Speaker Greg Curtis agrees most lawmakers are going to look to the committee, which labored over computer-generated maps, for guidance. "[Ferry] is going to have an uphill battle," Curtis said. "He's going to have to convince members of the committee why his map is better than the one they adopted." So OK that means this Plan M is for naught. But Waddups wants some changes But then again, so is the whole process:

A senior GOP aide told The Salt Lake Tribune on Thursday that it's "unlikely" the House would take up a bill that would give Utah a fourth congressional seat that likely would go to a Republican in order to balance a proposed seat for the District of Columbia, which doesn't now have a full-voting representative.
"There's simply too many Republicans who have problems with the bill to bring it up at this late of an hour in the session," the aide said.
Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, signaled similar concerns on Thursday. Asked if the bill had a chance at passing, Cannon said, "It is very dicey, I would say."

So I guess I have to applaud the legislature's committee for listening to that woman in Park City and including Park City with Salt Lake and its 'burbs. At the same time, the whole thing was sham partisan map. They are using 6 year old data, creating 3-safe GOP seats and one safe Democratic district. Except Jim could bust their whole scheme.

It will be interesting to see if Huntsman cannot only keep the legislature in line to pass Plan L but also convince the House and Senate in the US Congress to pass this in the Lame Duck. Personally, i think the chances are less than 50%.

More on plan L

So this bill is "bipartisan" according to the Tribune because the committee listened to people in Park City who complained about being lumped into rural Utah when they are a cosmopolitan city linked to Salt Lake City and Vale, CO than Mexican Hat, UT..."including a Park City woman who complained about being in the 'hellhole' of the 1st Congressional District. "

But this article does include a new tidbit of information from the past that might link to the future:

After the 2001 redistricting, Matheson contemplated suing the state after Republican lawmakers gerrymandered him into a district stretching from Salt Lake City to St. George. Wednesday, Matheson spokeswoman Alyson Heyrend declined to comment on the new map, calling it "extremely hypothetical."

The Deseret News points out the Utah Republican hypocrisy:

For a decade, GOP lawmakers have argued that there should not be a single U.S. House district in Salt Lake County — that all Utah congressmen should represent both urban and rural areas of the state. But under Plan L, Matheson's 2nd District would take in northern Salt Lake County, Park City and surrounding suburbs in Summit County and North Salt Lake and part of Woods Cross in Davis County.

Oh and by the way, you, Utah Taxpayers, paid for a likely charade

Finally, all the work and cost of paying for the committee's work and a special session may be for naught.
State officials are rushing to get a four-seat plan before Congress so that a lame-duck session next week can consider a special bill that would give Washington, D.C., a full-voting House seat (the current delegate can't vote on final passage of legislation) and give Utah a fourth seat.

The new map

In the end, the Legislature's special committee decided on a plan whose map was never released to the public...Plan L(PDF).

L looks somewhat similar to previous plans. The new 4th district will be Southwestern Utah (Tooele, Juab [save the Eastern jug end where everyone lives], Millard, Beaver, Iron, Washington Counties). However, the 4th also would include Southern Salt Lake County-- South Jordan, West Jordan, Cottonwood Heights, Talyorsville, Sandy, and parts of West Valley. The new 2nd will be like the 1990's 2nd (Northern Salt Lake County, with the Park City part of Summitt County, and a tiny sliver of Davis and Utah Counties [Woods Cross and Alta respectively]). The new 3rd will include Eastern Utah "centered" around Provo (Morgan, rest of Summitt, Daggett, Wasatch, Utah, Duchesne, Uintah, Carbon, rest of Juab, Sanpete, Emory, Grant, Piute, Wayne, Garfield, San Juan, and Kane Counties). The new 1st will be centered around Ogden (Box Elder, Cash, Weber, 99% of Davis, and Rich Counties).

"We've had a significant amount of public input," Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, committee co-chairman told the Tribune. "There's been a great deal of discussion about the public perception that this is a majority party whitewash. That we are simply trying to gerrymander Republican Party seats. Nothing could be further from the case."

Um I say that is complete Bull. No member of the public asked for protecting Matheson, not even Matheson. The number of people wanting a mix of urban and rural districts were solely Republican partisans. Why don't you ask the people living out in the rural areas if they want to fight for attention with Provo, Salt Lake County, or Davis/Weber Counties? Of course they never had a hearing in rural areas, the closest they got was in St. George, our fastest growing city.

clueless in washington

two idiot senators that think they will be president in two year squwalked today:

"When it comes to the field of Democratic Presidential hopefuls," Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) "has clearly decided that there is still a niche to be filled by someone like him," the New York Observer reports.

"While he thinks that Hillary Clinton can be President, he also notes that she is still in the midst of forming her Iraq policy. And as for John Edwards, John Kerry or Al Gore, well, they’ve already run."

Says Dodd: "I sort of have a unique position because I have experience, but I’m sort of a fresh face. I know that’s kind of silly. I’ve been in the Senate 25 years."

"Twenty years ago, I made a mistake. Twenty years ago, I learned a whole hell of a lot getting up off my knees."
-- Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), quoted by the Providence Journal, about the plagarism of a speech during his 1988 presidential campaign.

Morons.

Bush's other other foreign policy failure

That is, not Iraq, not Afghanistan, but Russia. Bush hired a "Russian expert" for his National Security Adviser (Stanford Provost Condi Rice). He met President Putin and looked into his soul and discovered that he was a "good man," his adjective that means "someone who agrees with me" essentially.

Prior to 9/11, Bush was pushing for missile defense, and demanding that Russia join them in withdrawing the conflicting portion of the ABM treaty. Condi was scheduled to give a speech on September 11, 2001 about Rouge states (aka Iraq, Iran, and North Korea) and the need to protect ourselves from such threats (via missile defense). Obviously, she never got her chance.

While the US and its friends were having their adventure in Iraq, and ignoring Afghanistan, Russia was falling deeper and deeper into a thuggish dictatorship. Those who have the most connections to the Kremlin via bribes or whatever get to have the key businesses and all political and business transactions take place with force always in the background. Corruption is unstoppable. Those who try are beaten or killed, or threatened or acid is poured on their faces.

Those who try to buck the will of the Russian government/mob are killed or attempted to be killed. There is no freedom of press, no rule of law, no real democracy.

Clearly, Mr. Bush, Vladimir Putin is not a "good man" unless he really is someone whose methods and policies you agree with and aspire to.

Romney's failure as governor

The Washington Post's Sunday paper reviews Romney's 4-year stint as governor of Massachusetts and generously calls it a "mixed" record. It reality, it was an utter failure. As a legislative aide from 2003-04 in the Massachusetts State House, I speak from experience.

Here are a list of his duds:

• raising taxes-- by "closing what he called 'loopholes' in the corporate tax code...along with higher local property taxes..." and hiked fees for essential state services.


• "Romney failed to develop the warm personal relationships with Democratic leaders that Weld had enjoyed with some of their predecessors. The Democrats had no compunction about rejecting Romney's initiatives, including his push to reduce the state's top income tax rate." He had no clout on Beacon Hill, the Democratic legislature overrode daily and did whatever they wanted.


• "Romney mounted a major effort...in his midterm election in 2004. He campaigned and financed races in dozens of districts, spending $3 million, and when the returns came in, Republicans had two fewer seats than before." And don't forget his handpicked successor was creamed by Deval Patrick who campaigned against the Romney legacy


• "left the state politically polarized" on key issues of Abortion, Death Penalty, Gay Marriage, Stem Cell Research, etc. He governed like he was governor of a Southern Red State rather that a Northeastern Blue State.


• "His plan for health care...was tweaked and substantially expanded by the legislature, and in the final analysis, the negotiations that led to success were managed more by the Democratic leaders of the House and Senate than by the governor."

He never would have been famous to those the-Church-should-be-the-State GOPers had he not been governor when the SJC ruled on Goodridge so he could be against it. He was a loser from day one in office. The whole governorship was a big PR spin, like his "cleanup" of SLC's Olympics. Everyone but him worked their butt off to make it a great games. And he takes all the credit?

I dream of Romney being the Presidential nominee. Too bad it won't happen. He will get crushed in the SBC belt.

much to do about nothing

Another story about Utah's "congressionally mandated" reredistricting, another slow news day burial.

According to the Tribune"The day after the hearings, the committee expects to select a final map to be debated by the full Legislature during a special session Dec. 1."

Now the G proposal will be presented to the public after all, because get this, Utah Democrats think that the public should have input on the map process. What a riot. Utah Democrats also think claims that rural-urban mixed districts are better should be vetted by Utahns; crazy huh?

Meanwhile, Matheson is calling for an independant commission to draft these maps rather than a hyper-partisan legislature. Enid replies with a not so veiled threat: "Jim Matheson's never going to get a better district than he is going to get under these circumstances," said the acting Utah GOP party chairwoman.

Sources close to Matheson tell this blogger that Jim, like Sen. Bennett, doubt that the Davis bill will pass before the lame duck expires. So I may have been front-paged on MyDD for nothing. Oh well, them's the brakes.

I hope everyone is enjoying their Thanksgiving weekend. And come home safe.

plan G from outer space

As expected, the committee assigned with the task of drawing a 4-seat map released those maps when they were sure no one was looking--the day before Thanksgiving.

(Graphic credit: Salt Lake Tribune for more detail, click on this PDF by the paper)

All four plans share common elements. Sandy, parts of West Jordan, and most of Southern Salt Lake County not be part of the new 2nd district. Proposals I and J include Park City into the 2nd district. Davis and Weber Counties remain the "heart" of the redrawn 1st, although Proposal A gives the new 2nd district a tiny piece of Bountiful. All but Proposal G place Southern Salt Lake County in the new 4th District, and even then G places half in the new 4th and half in the new 3rd.

So which map would be the best for Democrats? Proposals A and G would allow Jim Matheson to run in the new 4th district and allow a Peter Carroon-type Democrat to run in the new 2nd district. Proposals I and J would be more difficult for Jim to run in their 4ths because of the inclusion of Washington County (St. George). Similarly, Jim would have a tough time running in their new 3rds because the parts of Salt Lake County, along with Carbon and San Juan (Moab) Counties would some how have to overcome Utah County (Provo). Thus, if I or J are adopted, I would expect Jim to stay in the 2nd district. But if A or G passed, I would press Jim to run in the new 4th and find a suitable Democratic candidate for the new 2nd.

Here are the redistricting hearing times and locations. If you live nearby, please attend. (Graphic credit: Deseret News)

So what are the chances of each proposal? The Deseret News gives us the scoop:

Senate Republicans, however, have insisted that the 2001 proposal known as "Plan A" continue to be considered. The committee's other two proposals, "Plan I" and "Plan J," were put together behind closed doors during a break in Tuesday's meeting.
...
The committee rejected a proposal by the minority Democrats, "Plan G," that would have created two largely urban districts from most of Salt Lake and Utah counties and two largely rural districts from the rest of the state.
"This really is a snapshot of what the state is," said Senate Minority Whip Gene Davis, D-Salt Lake. But Republicans disagreed, arguing that the state is better served when all members of Congress represent rural constituents.

Rep. Jackie Biskupski, D-Salt Lake City, stormed out of a meeting after G lost according to the Salt Lake Tribune "They always say they want input from the Democrats. Why have Democrats on the committee if you are going to ignore what we have to say?" "The governor said this was going to be a fair and nonpartisan process or he would use his veto," Biskupski said. ''He can't pretend this was nonpartisan.''

"If you are going to take three plans on the road for public hearings that are the same and not include the option from the minority party, it's obviously a partisan process," Biskupski said. Newsflash! Redistricting is a partisan political process, News at 10. Even though no political affiliation data was inputed into the mapping program, everyone on that committee knows where Democrats do well, where Jim's base of support is, and where Republicans do well. Let's not kid ourselves with this "non-partisan process" crap.

The interesting thing will be if Biskupski is correct and Huntsman indeed vetoes ones of these other plans for being overtly partisan.

Utah Republicans carve up map like Turkey

Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday. I have been writing a paper for a class and my topic is the Allen-Webb senate race. Boy, did Allen have some great quotes. "For folks to think I would know what sorts of genus of monkeys are in eastern Asia ascribe a lot more intelligence to me than I actually have."--August 17. Now to the Turkey meat, thanks to the Salt Lake Tribune:

"With such a large population concentrated in Salt Lake County, it is very difficult to do it in two parts," [State Rep. Dave]Clark said. "Every possible division into four districts will be considered."

That is the biggest hint I can think of that the legislature doesn't like Huntsman's proposed map. And here was Huntsman's retort:

"We are allowing the Legislature to do its work," said Huntsman spokesman Mike Mower. "But the governor will have the final say. Our goal is to make sure it is fair."

The Deseret News provides a helpful graphic showing when open hearings will be held for this ultra-important process involving democracy

That's right, when no one will be able to attend. I am sure this is the bare minimum required under open meetings laws. So if they do make a map that both a GOP legislature and a GOP governor like, what happens next? The Deseret News explains:

"It would be a clean slate," said Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, the co-chairman of a special legislative redistricting committee. "We'd have to elect four new congressional representatives."
Just how that election would be structured, though, remains to be seen. Bramble, the incoming Senate majority leader, said lawmakers would likely wait until the 2007 Legislature meets in January to figure out the special election process.
But Sen. Chris Buttars, R-West Jordan, said he wanted to see candidates go through the regular nominating process at political party conventions. Committee members were told, however, that Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. could speed up that process.

Meanwhile, leaders in both parties are pouring over 6 year old census data (which the state argued was inaccurate to begin with to the Supreme Court) to draw up their own fantasy maps. With a special election next year, Salt Lake City will have a "non-partisan" mayoral race and two to three Congresscritters to vote on. It seems like it won't be such an "off year" after all.

more like this please

The the Salt Lake Tribune has a fantastic headline, and I want to reward good behavior: "Reid proof that good Mormons can also be Democrats"

Many folks think Democrat and Mormons don't belong in the same sentence, except with "hate" or "aren't" in between. Well, Majority Leader Harry Reid seeks to change all that, but first he has to overcome the culture of the church members themselves.

Despite the fact that Reid held weekly Family Home Evenings and sent three sons on two-year missions for the church, and all five of his children were married in LDS temples, some members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints question his faith because of his politics.

What more can the guy do? He is pro-life, but votes for against anti-choice judges out of party loyalty. He drinks neither alcohol, coffee, tea, or soda. The Democratic Party has lots of religious diversity and religiosity.

Same for Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who noted that Reid is a Mormon, Majority Whip-elect Richard Durbin is a Catholic and Charles Schumer, head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, is Jewish.

Abortion and gay rights are the big two 'values' issues that tend to keep Latter-Day Saints opposed to the Democratic Party. But the party is home to many pro-lifers, like Senator-Elect Bob Casey, and many pro-traditional marriage members too, like Tennessee's U.S. Rep. Lincoln Davis. True, these folks are in the minority in the party and that the presidential candidates must be pro-choice and pro-gay rights to be the nominee, but it doesn't mean these folks can't be proud Democrats in the State House, the Governor's Mansions, the House and the Senate. The reverse can't be said for Republicans who are much more homogenized.

What unites Democrats is caring for people: raising the minimum wage, supporting the right to organize labor, improving health care, reducing taxes on the poor and middle class, caring for the elderly, equal rights for racial/ethnic minorities, and so on.

What unites Republicans is lower taxes. It used to be smaller government, but then congressional Bush Republicans decided to pork their way into "permanent power." I guess it is still smaller government social programs, but it also includes eliminating premarital sex, no gay sex, no gay marriage, no division between church and state, and no social welfare for the poor, the elderly, the young.

Since there are 3 Casey's for every one Rudy G's, and Democrats love to squabble between themselves, I say welcome to my LDS brethern who are tired of giving their social services away to tax cuts for the rich, who are tired of politicians professing their 'faith' in order to humor you for votes but never deliver, who talk about gay marriage and abortion all day long, but never address the root cause of abortion (poverty, lack of sex education, lack of contraception, rape, incest, abuse, misfortune).

fairly benign redistricting, and other oxymorons

More on the Utah redistricting plans from the Deseret News this morning(for a brief synopsis read my dairy on MyDD):

Instead of Huntsman's preliminary idea, committee leaders said, the state's most populous county may be divided among three of the four districts. A redrawn 2nd District could include Summit, Daggett and Morgan counties as well as Salt Lake City, the city's Rose Park and other parts of Salt Lake County.
"These are not set in stone. They're meant to be the starting point for discussion," said Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, co-chairman of the redistricting committee. "We've come up with something that looks fairly benign."
But even as Bramble was drawing his new map, House Speaker Greg Curtis, R-Sandy, warned that any plan that split the county into parts of three districts would only come if Salt Lake County was the "population center of at least two of the districts."

Translation: get Matheson out of my Sandy district, I nearly lost my election to him. Here is the committee, tell me with a straight face this won't be a hyper-partisan 'screw Matheson again' map.

Jeremy Roberts, a Salt Lake County GOP activist, wants a GOP party resolution that says that "only states should have voting representation in the U.S. House and Senate — and so it is unconstitutional to let the District of Columbia have a House seat." Ergo, one for Utah, none for D.C. I am sure it has nothing to do with the white, Republican nature of Utah and the Black, Republican nature of D.C....nothing at all.

Here are some more hints about where the committee is thinking of going:

Only about half of strongly Democratic Salt Lake City is in the existing 2nd District.
As for the rest of Salt Lake County, Bramble said some westside portions should go to a redrawn 3rd District along with a sliver of Tooele County. And the rest of Salt Lake County — including Sandy — could be part of a new 4th District "centered" in St. George.
...
Curtis, who went through the bruising redistricting in 2001, has said that the 2nd District — now held by Utah's only Democratic member of Congress, Rep. Jim Matheson — must be a mostly Democratic seat. Otherwise, Democrats in Congress will not go along with the proposed deal that would give the District of Columbia one voting House seat and give Utah another House seat."

Again, translation for Speaker Curtis: Matheson is unbeatable, so let's give him a safer House seat, so he won't take out other Republicans.

Matheson in recent elections has won more than 60 percent of the vote in this part of his huge geographic district, which also takes in eastern and southern Utah. In the 2006 election, Matheson got more than 70 percent of the Salt Lake County vote. Matheson also has a bit of northeastern Utah County, where he has been beaten by his GOP opponent.

Matheson is already safe, as his victory in November proved. He will never be seriously challenged again unless there is another 2002 like year, but that was the magic combination of a very GOP year and redistricting where Jim had 33% new constituents who didn't know him. He got crushed in Washington County and still eked out a win. Now, he places respectably in Washington County, thanks to all his hard work getting federal money for the St. George airport and other items.

friday roundup

• Joe Cannon is leaving the post of Utah Republican Party chair, making current Vice Chair Enid Greene chair until the next party elections. A failed 2004 Lt. Governor candidate, a failed Congresswoman, and now UT Republican Party chairwoman. The party has a corrupt, but at least competent person at the helm now. However, I am sure she won't last. Utah Republicans have a habit of kicking out women from leadership positions in their party, just ask Governor Walker.


• An opponent to Joe Lieberman (CFL-CT), called the Secretary of State of Connecticut and found out that even Joe wasn't a member of his own "Connecticut for Lieberman" party, so he joined, made himself party chairman, and created the party rules. Here are the highlights (courtesy of My Left Nutmeg):
  

  a. If you run under Connecticut for Lieberman, you must actually join our party.
  b. The party will nominate people for office who have the last name of Lieberman and/or who are critics and opponents of Senator Lieberman.
  c. If any CFL candidate loses our party's nomination in a primary, that candidate must bolt our party, form a new party and work to defeat our party endorsed candidate.
  d. We in the CFL intend to run the same candidate for three different jobs at the same time, ie. House, Senate and Governor.

  
  The brilliant idea is to 1) hold Lieberman accountable, 2) expose "Connecticut for Lieberman" as a sham party, 3) lock out Lieberman from both CFL and Democratic party, making it impossible to Joe to run for reelection in 2012, unless he creates another fake party. The CT legislature will probably change the election laws to prevent sore losers from creating their own parties and running again against their primary opponents, either by changing the date of party formation to before party primaries (currently it is the day after) or simply not allowing a losing candidate to run again.


• SLC mayoral race in 2007 is wide open. Ten candidates have filed for this "non-partisan" election. The winner will most likely be a Democrat, but that hasn't stopped Republicans from trying. Democrats in the minority in the state and county legislature have opted for a chance in the greener pastures of the old city and county building. I don't have a dog in this fight, but I may decide whom I like after learning more about what the candidates propose to do, rather than who they are. Kirk Jowers, Hinckley Institute of Politics told KSL, "There is a lot of pent up excitement to run for office. It's the same thing you'd find if Hatch or Bennett decide to hang it up. There's a lot of people who have been waiting for this moment."

Zombie 4th seat

It won't die...thanks to ultra-powerful Gov. Huntsman. By December 4th, the bill should be passed out of the legislature and used as a bargaining chip for the DC-Utah bill still pending in the lame duck Congress.

"We've been assured by the governor that this will be a fair process with a fair result or he will veto it," said state House Minority Leader Ralph Becker, D-Salt Lake. He said minority Democrats will agree to a special session.

Not that Becker has much choice in the matter...I don't think Dems even have the power to block a quorum.

Gov. Huntsman's map was basically fair: a safe Democratic seat in exchange for 3 GOP safe (save Matheson) seats. But the state legislature isn't going to play nice. Here is the old map the legislature passed in 2001:

"It's open. We're not pushing any particular map," said Senate President John Valentine.
...
"We've been committed all along to making certain at the end of the day that a fair map is adopted," said Huntsman spokesman Mike Mower.

Watch the sparks fly.

wait for 2008

I know the press would much rather be talking up a potential Hillary-McCain 2008 race...but 2006 races aren't over yet. There are 7 House seat that are still undecided, and amazingly enough no Congressional Democrats lost this cycle. Currently 30 seats have been picked up, but any or all of these 7 could go blue.

In Utah, the story is the same: many Salt Lake County races are still close to call, including State House Speaker Greg Curtis'. The GOP believe that Jim Matheson's walking of Curtis' district--combined with his prominant position on a stadium Real Salt Lake--lead to his near or actual loss.

Right now, Speaker Curtis is up on 46 votes. "There also are 600 paper ballots - requested by voters leery of the new electronic machines - that have yet to be tabulated, explained Jason Yocom, chief deputy clerk." If you were wondering if Jason Yocom was related to outgoing D.A. Dave Yocum, you were right, Jason is his son.

Moreover, Utah Democrats have another chance in the Salt Lake County Auditor were the Democratic candidate is behind 344 votes. For that race, Jason Yocum has a "stack of provisionals had passed 7,700 along with more than 3,000 absentees." Those are just the prominent races.

There are actually 4 other state house races that are too close to call. Here are the closest of the close.

* HOUSE 22: Deena Ely, R, leads Carl Duckworth, D (i), by 25 votes.
* HOUSE 29: Janice Fisher, D (i), leads Phillip Conder, R, by 75 votes.
* HOUSE 36: Phil Riesen, D, leads Susan Lawrence, R (i), by 103 votes.
* HOUSE 45: Mark Walker, R (i), leads Laura Black, D, by 32 votes.
* HOUSE 49: Greg Curtis, R (i), leads Jay Seegmiller, D, by 46 votes.
* SALT LAKE COUNTY AUDITOR: Sean Thomas, R (i), leads Jeff Hatch, D, by 344 votes.
* JORDAN SCHOOL BOARD NO. 6: Tracy Cowdell leads Lynette Phillips (i), by 27 votes.

Bush's final days and Utah's 4th

Mr. Lame Duck thinks he can push John Bolton (an utter failure at the UN, despite what a commenter thinks), Daddy's CIA chief for Def. Sec. and a 4th Seat for Utah in exchange for D.C. through in the next couple weeks. Forget about it.

Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah — who remains in U.S. Senate leadership until Dec. 31 — warns there is little likelihood that the compromise plan will make it through the lame-duck congressional session.

Governor Huntsman is worried of those new Democrats in Congress:

"They could move forward unilaterally and take care of voting rights in Washington, without any kind of commensurate increase in representation for Utah," the Republican governor said. He called that prospect a "worst-case scenario."
"We have an open window. And it's going to close very quickly," Huntsman said.

So Huntsman is turning up the heat on the Utah legislature, and they aren't playing ball

"We were being asked by Congress to have an up-or-down vote on a map drawn in the back room," Senate President John Valentine said Tuesday. "We're just not going to do that. . . . We really felt like it was important to have the process include public participation. We were not willing to just play Whac-a-Mole with the Congress."
Instead, state legislators may hold public hearings on the proposed map and then vote on it by Dec. 4 as a way to advance the tandem Utah/D.C. plan.
...
At least one member of the statehouse circulated a letter Tuesday calling the proposal the "fourth seat slippery slide," slamming the idea as one that would eventually hurt Utah and boost Democrats.
"In return for a Western, Republican Utah seat for possibly four years [until we get it legitimately in 2012] we give Washington, D.C., and the Eastern Democrats an extra seat forever," said outgoing Rep. David Cox, R-Lehi. "That doesn't seem like a fair trade."

Dang! A State Representative who is a Republican is either reading my blog, or came to the same conclusion independently (given my traffic, I will opt for number 2). Moreover, Democrats would lock up the 2nd district, Matheson or no Matheson, and free up Jim to run in the new 4th or the new 3rd. My dream is that he takes out Chris Cannon and we get a progressive Democrat to represent the new Second. And then when Hatch or Bennett dies, he wins the open Senate seat.

Meanwhile, the DC democrats are dumb enough to think this will hurt Matheson. Jim can win in almost any district in the state now fairly easily. His ads and person are known statewide and is approval ratings are second only to the nation's most popular governor. What is Matheson's official line?

Matheson, who favors a nonpartisan redistricting commission to make any district changes, says he will vote for any bill that gives Utah a fourth seat now, regardless of how the Legislature's redistricting may affect him personally.

Utah over his political career, principle over personal. That is why Jim won with the biggest margin of all the Congressional races this year.

abstinance makes the heart grow fonder

Sorry for the lack of posting of late. I don't really have much of an excuse, other than I didn't feel the need to comment on anything in particular because the commentary from the big Kahunas was vastly superior to what I would have written (and more often with better spelling and grammar, sorry).

I am excited about the incoming Congress and their boldness already to stop Bush from legalizing his warrantless eavesdropping on international and domestic calls, and their reluctance to allow Mr. Gates to become Defense Secretary without a meaningful hearing (meaning, after the lame duck session).

However, I am saddened by my own personal job situation where there is little certainty and not much I can do but wait and pass the Bar. I do love Utah and Salt Lake County, but if a job prospect opens up in the Washington, D.C. area, I will return to our Nation's Capitol. That year I spent there was some of the most fun I had, despite living in a tiny studio with a 45 minute Metro commute and a slow paced job. Too bad many of my D.C. friends from then have moved on to other cities and jobs. But now my in-laws live only two hours away from D.C. and I am excited to be back in national politics in person rather than just over the internet.

If it weren't for D.C., I would have never been able to help launch the DraftWesleyClark.com part of the Clark movement. If it weren't for blogs and Yahoo! groups, I would have never met Matt Stoller and Stirling Newberry when I moved to Boston.

As much as I love pontificating on the internet and meeting my internet idols, I long use my legal education towards domestic and international policy and politics. Wesley Clark is going to decide whether to run again by January, and if he says yes, I will be there again, where ever I am. A Clark/Warner or Clark/Obama ticket would be excellent and help Democrats take swingable Southern states like Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana. Evan Bayh is a nice man, but he will never be nominated President and as VP would not help carry Indiana. Plus, Clark, Warner, and Obama are exciting because they are not only electable, but principled and charasmatic, and intelligent but not Al Gore 2000/John Kerry 2004 condescending intelligent.

Utah Democrats make strides in 2006

Despite having about the worst night of any state party (although Idaho Democrats must be sad that Bill Sali got elected rather than their Larry Grant), Utah Democrats did have a ray of hope for the future: early voting.

Check out this graphic by the Salt Lake Tribune:

That's right, Utah Democrats kicked butt in SLCo. early voting.
" 'The Democratic Party clearly outstrategized or outworked us on that early voting,' said House Speaker Greg Curtis.
His Democratic opponent, Jay Seegmiller, enjoyed a 60 percent to 40 percent advantage when the early voting." In the end, Curtis hung on to win by 64 votes.
" Out of 55 congressional, legislative or county races, Democrats held the early voting lead in all but 10, and in five of those races Democrats did not field a candidate. Out of those 45 races where Democrats held an early voting lead, they ended up losing 17. "

Well that is something to hope for. Democrats will always outwork Republicans in Utah...they have to in order to have any hope. Republicans just have to plaster the word "Republican" and or put an elephant on every thing to get ahead.

last ditch "bipartisanship"

Many bloggers have noted how Bush's first "bipartisan" effort was an attempt to ram through Gates and John Bolton and retroactive authorization of wiretapping that is currently illegal under FISA. However, another little noticed Bush effort before he turns into a pumpkin on January 20th, Bush wants to push the bill that would give Utah a 4th seat.

Of course, he pretended he never heard of the bill, but the White House spokeswoman said otherwise.

While in theory the bill would be politically neutral, a newly Democratic House could allow D.C. to vote without adding a seat for Utah.

Bush wants to go back to his Texas model, but the Democrats in the Texas legislature were like the Democrats in the Utah legislature: very conservative and in the minority. The trouble is, while there will be a big Blue Dog block in the House, the liberals will be in charge and opt for popular populist bills first, regardless of what Bush wants.

Get your popcorn ready for January, it will be interesting to see the sparks fly.

the morning after

Needless to say I am very happy. My predictions were fairly accurate, I forgot about TX KS FL AZ and CA...I got too optimistic about CT and believed the hype, but I hope Lieberman learned his lesson from August and won't stray too much from the party line.

Sen. Bob Bennett says he thinks Rumsfeld will resign before the next congress takes over. I am fairly confident that Democrats' leads in VA and MT will hold up under possible recounts. What a night, what a sweep! The biggest surprise to me was Carol Shea-Porter, who had maybe a $100,000 and won her more Republican NH district. She will now have lots of "friends" in the Senate and statehouses. What an incredible grassroots candidate, very impressive. I am sad that Eric Massa looks to have lost in NY-29, but it is close and he is not yet conceding...good for him.


Here in Utah, it looks like the wave never breached the Wasatch mountains. Judge Lewis is probably gone. It looks like Miller won the DA's race (and might have done something ethically and legally questionable). Winder is the new Sheriff in town and Kennard graciously invited him to the high up meeting today.

I am pretty tired, but this makes up my temporary depression after the results of 2000, 2002, and 2004 to some degree. I really need a new hobby; I get too sucked in.

final predictions

Utah:
Hatch 60-37 Ashdown
Matheson 63-36 Christensen

SLCo.:
Winder 55-44 Kennard
Gill 49.7-49.3 Miller (expect a recount)
Bradley 52-48 Auger


US House:
PA- 4 seats
CT- 2 seats
NY- 3 seats
IN- 3 seats (net, Julia Carson loses)
KY- 2 seats
NE- 1 seat
KS- 1 seat
CO- 1 seat
NM- 1 seat (Madrid wins)
WY- 1 seat (Trauner wins)
ID- 1 seat (Grant wins)
CA- 1 seat

Senate:
CT: Lamont 51-40 Lieberman (9 for the R)
VA: Webb 55-45 Allen
MD: Cardin 51-49 Steele
MI: Stebenow 53-47 Boshard
MN: Kloblar 55-45 Kennedy
NJ: Menindez 56-44 Kean Jr.
TN: Corker 50.1-49.9 Ford Jr. (recount)
MO: McCaskill 52-48 Talent
MT: Tester 51-49 Burns
[the rest aren't close]

GOV: (only pick ups mentioned)
MA, NY, OH, CO, AR, IA, AK (recount)

James Evans smears again

On the heals of several polls showing Democratic candidate Jim Winder dramatically surging from far behind to far ahead, SLCo GOP party chair James Evans has tried to create a new "scandal."

...James Evans released a video to local media with several clips of Winder leading training sessions for Salt Lake County sheriff's deputies. In the video, Winder makes several inflammatory remarks "unbecoming to the man who wants to be your sheriff," Evans said.
In one clip, Winder said, "I want to be a hero, so I come in from the south side because I want to get there quicker than anybody else so I can give an a-- kicking or maybe shoot some guy if I'm really lucky. No s---."
In several other clips, Winder makes fun of South Salt Lake and Utah Transit Authority officers, as well as dispatchers and other patrol officers.
The video is nearly four minutes long and features a compilation of embarrassing statements Winder made during two separate training sessions that lasted a total of eight hours. Winder said he couldn't comment on the actual statements made in the video since they were clips that could have been taken out of context.

I saw the clips on KSL-TV, and the journalist there was extremely skeptical of Evans' claims. Out of two 4 hour long training sessions, they came up with 4 minutes of segments. Winder told KSL that he often would do role playing, and the clips showed his examples to new Deputies of what not to do.

This, like Evans' charge against Sim Gill, utter crap. Gill, you will recall, failed to properly fill out his disclosure reports--one of 10 candidates to do so (5 Republicans 5 Democrats)--and later fixed his reports. This is an attempt a moral equalizing where the two are not equal. Golfing during work hours is not the same as saying naughty things during training to get through to recruits. Accepting otherwise illegal straw donations from a company that is seeking to contract with your office is not the same as improperly filling out a disclosure form.

Evans in short has no shame. There is no depth he will not go to in hopes to win. What perfidy will he stoop to next? (Sorry my word of the day)

the final local polls show tight races, except Sheriff

Democratic candidate for SLCo Sheriff Dave Winder, who message got some amazingly great news from the Salt Lake Tribune:

Winder, who trailed the sheriff by 30 percentage points one month ago, is favored by 51 percent of county voters compared to 34 percent for Kennard. Fifteen percent are undecided.
...
Winder, a longtime deputy in the sheriff's office, who contends Kennard is out of touch after 16 years on the job.
"Wow," he said about the 17-point advantage in the poll. "Needless to say, I'm very encouraged." The sheriff's race turned personal after stories broke chronicling Kennard's weekday golf habit, according to tallies of the days he plays 18-hole rounds and his scores, which are posted on the Utah Golf Association Web site. Kennard took offense at Winder's suggestion that golf interfered with his job performance, noting he always is available by cell phone, pager or radio and has been called off the course for emergencies.

Winder's slogan? "It's time for a change." Change seems to be the winning message this year all around the country, will it hurt Sim Gill and Jim Bradley, or is this just a pro-Democratic year?

Republican Lohra Miller holds a narrow edge, 36 to 34 percent over Democrat Sim Gill - a statistical dead heat. The poll shows a substantial amount - 26 percent - still are undecided in the election to replace retiring D.A. David Yocom.
In the County Council at-large contest, Democratic incumbent Jim Bradley leads Republican challenger Janice Auger 37 percent to 32 percent, with 27 percent undecided.
The poll, conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 1 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, surveyed 470 voters and has a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Now the race for DA has been tight the whole time, but Bradley had been up by a lot in the September Deseret News/Dan Jones poll. But maybe that is because Auger's "Don't let the 'Grandmother look' fool you." slogan received national attention via TIME magazine.

Mason-Dixon is a pretty reputable polling outfit, and I am glad that the Trib abandoned their previous polling firm that stunk. To me, no body gets Utah polling better than Dan Jones, but this poll is far my recent than the last Dan Jones poll. However, there may be another DJ poll in the field that will come out on Sunday...that is usually what happens. Then there is 48 hours to turns things around for the party that is behind and really Get Out The Vote.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if this purported Democratic wave actually does show up and make Tuesday (and early morning Wednesday) happy times for me. I really get too emotionally involved in politics. I remember how depressed I was for about a week after Kerry lost in 2004. Sure I am a partisan, but I am happy even if Democrats lose if at least turn out stays as high as it did in 2004.

great days for democracy

Yesterday I did not post because I was second-chairing a trial. It was my first real trial where I got to make an opening statement and do direct examination (and redirect and reredirect) and voire dire on jurors. Oh by the way, "I" won.

Anyway, while I was there at the SLCo. government center for the case, I saw huge lines for early voting. This was around noon on a Thursday. I also voted early last Friday (so stop calling me Scott McCoy et al) with my wife and then too there was a pretty serious line for around 4 o'clock. And my sense that this a big turnout is supported by this Deseret News story:

As of Thursday, the state has reported 50,000 votes have been cast.
"As we look at other states that have implemented early voting, this is higher than any other state in terms of percentage, this far, at their first go-around with early voting," said Joe Demma, chief of staff for the state elections office under the direction of Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert. "We're extremely pleased."

People love the convenience of voting on their own time ahead of the election so that it becomes just like going to to grocery store and not something you have to squeeze into a predetermined Tuesday. Political parties love to "bank" their partisans votes early. I love early voting, but I like vote by mail even more.

Voting and registering to vote should be as easy as getting a discount card or a credit card and then shopping online or going to the store to use them. Why is it that Republicans always seem to want to make it harder to vote. The more people vote, the more representative our officials and initiatives will be...the more credibility their decision will later have.

If you win Rove style (50.1%), you have a really small margin of error, next thing you know, you are in the high 30s. And because of this ultra-partisan ultra-divisive way Rove has run the country, Democrats will take back the House and maybe the Senate too. I can't wait until next Tuesday.

embed with the pollsters

not a dimes worth of difference?

Some people say there is no difference between Democrats and Republicans and that state and local races don't matter, it is the big federal races that are important. I say hogwash. How about these apples?

The proposed budget includes $250,000 for the county's small-business loan fund, as well as $20,000 to help build a business technology park in the county.
Corroon also asked for $400,000 to start a child immunization program in the county. The money would pay to immunize 11,000 low-income children under the age of 2 in the county health system. The budget asks for increased staffing levels at the county's after-school program in Kearns.
The green-friendly mayor wants to expand the county's recycling program, and asked for $4.5 million to make the voluntary program a required initiative countywide. The money would be used to place a blue recycling bin on the curb of every home in unincorporated county areas and their contract cities: Herriman, Bluffdale, Taylorsville, Cottonwood Heights, Holladay, Riverton and part of Murray.

How about that? Corroon cleans up the mess that Nancy Workman left in two years, and now wants to get to the progressive stuff he cares about.

The budget also includes money to continue Corroon's efforts to clean up county government. He asked for an associate director for the Administrative Services Department, a division Corroon recently created to provide oversight of several county divisions, such as fleet and personnel. Both divisions have been plagued with scandal over the past few years.

Corroon isn't just recycle bins either, he is law and order. This is something the Sheriff and the DA would get behind:

Corroon also asked to reopen one unit at the jail, which has 64 beds. He also wants to expand substance-abuse treatment programs, as well as make sure inmates are in jail until after their court date.

Of course, Randy Horiuchi wants to cut the jail proposal. All the time, we have people who don't show up to court who were released from jail because they only committed a misdemeanor and there isn't enough room/$ to keep them.

So if you believe as I do, your budget shows your values, then there is quite a lot of difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans in Congress cut taxes for the rich and programs for the poor, while spending pork in their district or for their bribers. Democrats want to increase spending on education and military personnel services. So if you say there is not a dime's difference, take a look at where each party wants your dimes to go.

story of the day

A money quote and picture, what could be better? I was in the Big Apple this weekend for a friend's wedding and got like 10 hours of sleep during the last three days, so excuse the lack of in depth analysis today.

"When investigators opened up the plush doll's skull, they discovered the drug stash [of 4 pounds] inside wrapped in plastic... While Elmo has never previously been linked to narcotics distribution or use, the Sesame Street character appears to have no teeth, which frequently is seen in heavy meth users."



The Smoking Gun.com christened the doll "Hook Me Up Elmo," I call it "Meth on his Mind Elmo"

another sign for Christmas in November?

deseretnews.com | Salt Lake County expands early voting due to high turnout: "The Salt Lake County clerk's office is expanding early voting for the general election.
Due to high turnout, the office is opening this Saturday and next Saturday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. and adding more voting machines."

I hope that everyone who can should go and vote, whether you are Democrat, Republican, Green, Liberarian, Personal Choice or what.

Try out those machines this week while the lines are small. Don't go all Diebold tin-foil-hat on me.

Chairman Waxman gets warmed up on Leavitt

Soon-to-be-Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman found this nugget: "Cabinet secretaries — especially former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt — use too many private planes to travel on government business, which has cost taxpayers $1.5 million since January 2001."
Why is Leavitt taking "19 trips aboard a private jet leased by CDC at a cost of $726,048 in order to promote administration policies"? Can't Leavitt fly coach to pimp privatizing social security and Medicare Part D? Waxman makes an outrageous request:

"If Cabinet secretaries are going to continue to travel across the country in the coming weeks, their travel should be economical and comply fully with federal travel regulations"
...
Waxman and Government Reform Committee Chairman Tom Davis, R-Va., wrote to all the federal agencies in June asking for information on their use of private aircraft.

Waxman also noticed that these trip were four times higher in 2004 to battleground states than in 2001, 2003, and 2005. Former Governor Leavitt, stop using the federal government as tool for the Republican Party. You are a millioniare, use your own damn jet if you want to fly private.

legislative process as a campaign tactic

The Salt Lake Tribune has an interesting scenerio/story that goes something like this

Candidate A: Education is my top issue. I would have scrapped a tax cut in favor of increased funding.
Candidate B: Me, too.
Candidate B: We are in desperate need of health care reform to get coverage to tens of thousands of uninsured Utahns.
Candidate A: I couldn't agree more.
Confused voter: Then why should I vote for you, Candidate A, over Candidate B?
Candidate A: I'm a Republican, and if you want your voice heard at all in Utah, you'd better elect me or you'll be marginalized along with the whole super-minority Democratic Party.
Candidate B: No, you should vote for me because you can't reverse the Legislature's wrong direction by throwing more Republicans into it.

history tells us that almost always, these kind of process arguments don't really matter to voters. Why else would Jim Matheson have been elected in 2000, narrowly won again in 2002, and was relected so overwhelmingly in 2004 (and soon 2006)? Why else would voters choose John Thune over then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle?

I say that voters either like the candidates or they don't. Sometimes when they don't like either, they go with their ideological ally (see New Jersey 2000-06). Sometimes they just want to throw the bumb out, even if the other candidate isn't so great.

While both the GOP and Democratic arguments in this non-hypothetical have merit, it all is really besides the point if you are looking for the message that will get you votes (and fits you). State Republican party officials claim their arguement is working in some SLC districts (where almost all of the Democratic seats are), but I doubt it will pan out.

Voters get that dumping a Daschle will mean less money comes to their state, but they don't get how the voting for Speaker works, who the Speaker is, or even what the Speaker is (let alone who/what the Majority and Minority Whips are).

What does it say about our legislature and American legislative systems in general that in order to get anything done for the people you represent, you have to claim the right party mantle, even if it doesn't fit you? Dr. Joe Jarvis, at least on health care, sounds like he is from Berkley or Cambridge, not a Utah Republican. But part of his argument I assume is that Scott McCoy is a nice guy, but as a Democrat, he can't get anything done.

Claiming every candidate has to be from one party leads to the Soviet system and really runs a roughshod over minority rights. Since Scott McCoy is an openly gay Democrat he is naturally going to be more attuned to minority rights in all aspects, even if he is a rich, educated, white, male. Empathy through experience, that is something being a white male LDS Republican running for office in Utah will never have.

America needs blogs

So for those of you who believe that posting on the internet is just placing words in the ether, here's a story for you:

I have written posts critiquing billboards of local politicans, and their slogans. I also suggested that folks show up to tonight's panel on health care in Utah. Well, at this event was State Senator Scott McCoy and Dr. Joe Jarvis, amoung others. During the reception, I spotted Senator McCoy and shook his hand.

Immediately, he thanked me for the input on my blog on his signs. "Next time, we'll focus group them through you," he said. I assume it was a joke, although it sounded like he agreed with my analysis. We both agreed that "America needs Utah" is the dumbest slogan out there.

That made my night. That, and Hansen's soda. Man that stuff is good.

Care about heath care in Utah?

It seems by looking at the lawnsign war, and the Salt Lake Tribune endorsement of Joseph Q. ("Dr. Joe") Jarvis, that my local state senate race will be a nail biter, since the GOP found a LDS hospital doctor to run in this liberal avenues seat.

If you are undecided, or just plain interested in health care, I urge you to come to the law school (332 South University Street)on October 19, 2006 [Tomorrow, from 6:30 to 8:00 PM] and meet the candidates who will be talking about a proposed constitutional amendment.

Former Salt Lake City Mayor Ted Wilson will moderate, and the panel will feature Senator Scott McCoy; Senate candidate Joe Jarvis; Bill Tibbits, Director of the
Anti-Hunger Action Committee; Roberta Herzberg, Department Head of Political Science at Utah State University; and Brad Kuhnhausen, Utah Association of Health Underwriters.

The proposed amendment states: "Each resident of the State has the right to health care. It is the responsibility of the State to ensure that no resident of the State lacks access to basic, affordable health care." I happen to agree.

My old student organization, PILO, will be hosting. If you have any questions, post a comment and I will direct it to our fabulous new leadership. See you there.

sleeper in Salt Lake City

The Deseret News headline: "District 2 looks like Matheson cakewalk"

Utah's 2nd district isn't on Hotline's top 60, or any national ranking group's radar. The national parties are staying out of Utah after failing so badly last time. It is over, Jim has a seat in the House until at least 2012.

A late September survey by Dan Jones & Associates found Matheson ahead of Christensen, 60-24 percent.
...
Matheson also leads Christensen in fund raising. The latest Federal Election Commission reports show that Matheson has $1.1 million in cash while Christensen has nearly $300,000.
A millionaire, Christensen has put $490,000 of his own money into his race, and he may well put more in as he runs more TV and radio ads up to Election Day.

So far, I have seen TV ads from Jim 3 times (two different ads) and zero from LaVar. Keep trying to insinuate homophobia with your Pelosi=San Francisco talking points, but only a handful of people in Utah even know who she is.

Other third quarter results of blow out Utah races: "Ashdown has $14,217 in cash; Hatch has $2.8 million." And that is after Hatch gave lots of money to the National Republican committees and threw away some money by giving it to LaVar. Pete Ashdown is bummed that no one gave him money, especially the technology PACs...sorry Pete but they don't want to piss off a very powerful soon to be reelected Senator. I will vote for you, but you aren't going to win.

a changing Democratic majority?

If the Democrats re-gain control of the House, which pundits and prognosticators say they will, it will do so without the old Confederacy as a base of support. This is a big deal, and signifies a shift in the politics of the South and the Northeast.

But it doesn't necessarily mean that the Democratic Party itself will become more Liberal. Many of the new seats to be gained are by definition in Republican held areas. Sure, some are in blue states or areas Kerry or Gore won, but a majority will only come from Republican areas (that is, Bush districts and some in Bush states).

For example, Indiana seems to be fruitfull territory this year for House seats. But Indiana has supported Republicans for President for decades, and they just elected a Republican Governor. Granted, the Republican Governor's unpopular decisions are part of the reason Democrats look good in that state this year, but these candidates are not liberals by any means.

There will be a lot more new Melissa Beans in Congress on January 2007 than there will be Chris Van Hollen's because of where Democrats will be sucessful. To me, it looks like Connecticut will not be a good state this year. All of the GOP incumbents knew it was going to be a tough year, and were prepared. Some may still lose, but I doubt all of them will. And Joe Lieberman's continued presence really hurts Democratic challengers, as Joe's quasi-Republicanism becomes more pronounced with each day.

Upstate New York will yield a few, but again these are in conservative areas...even if Clinton will carry them twice and Spitzer will run circles around the GOP. The region still elects GOP state Senators and voted for Bush in 2004. Ohio's gains will come from very GOP regions, as will any California gains (1-2 might materialize).

By contrast, Penn. will be a good state for Democrats this year, so more progressive Dems will come from there. There are a handful of seats that if they flip will like Chis Van Hollen's stay flipped: Northrup's in KY, almost all of the CT districts, the Philly burbs, Wilson's in NM...but the rest of the gains will be challenged very hard in 2008, when turn out will be higher and the GOP will have NOTBush as their presidential candidate (most likely McCain). So all of the class of 2006 will play it safe and not vote especially liberal on social isssues (save stem cells).

The same story will be true for the Senate as well. A Senator Ford, Webb, McCaskill, Casey, and probabbly Tester would vote fairly moderately and make pains to disagree with their liberal collegues when possible.

Bottom line: the New Democrat caucus in both the House and the Senate will not die out. While the Democratic majority will not be beholden to the South in the House, it will in the Senate. But again, either way, there will be more moderates in both chambers after 2006, not less. This will not make the would be Democratic majorities more liberal. If anything, House Democrats as a whole will be less liberal.

on air?

I got interviewed this afternoon for KSL nightside on the topic of bloggers and libel suits. (Thanks Ethan!) Maybe I was too boring or maybe I convinced them that libel is not as much of a worry as disclosing priviledged or secret information is...but it looks like it won't air anytime soon.

I talked about my legal and ethical obligations to make sure that I don't prejudice potential jurors on criminal cases, or spill the beans on inside information for legislative or executive process.

If Chris Buttars or LaVar Christensen or Chris Cannon or Joe Cannon or any other local political figure that has made an a$$ of themselves by saying dumb things, doing dumb things, or being hypocritical, I welcome their lawsuit. Besides being a lawyer in training, I know lots of lawyers and I am sure I could find a libel/first amendment lawyer willing to go to bat for blogger's rights to call a spade a spade.

I can only dream of getting hit with a lawsuit...my blog's hits would go through the roof and my legal career would be cemented after I helped beat the pants off one of those clowns. To quote George W. Bush, "Bring it on."

relative holidays

Today is Columbus Day. In Boston, this makes for a large parade and everything being closed. In Utah, the post office, courts, and other annoyances are closed.

On Pioneer Day, Utah shuts down, but everyone else in the country is wondering why Utahns won't pick up the phone. Minor holidays will do that. Even though Columbus and Martin Luther King day are federal holidays, you can't force places besides federal offices to take the day off. There needs to be a cultural support for the holiday.

If only we could make Election Day one of those super federal holidays, like the 4th of July. Would some people make it into a long weekend? Sure, but others would be happy to vote without the stress of worrying about getting back to work. Both party's GOTV operation would be so much easier. The poor would be more likely to vote.

If we really value democracy and the people as much as we say we do, we would make it a holiday too. and if this polling holds up, it looks like it will be Christmas for Democrats in November.

In 1994, Speaker Foley lost his seat. This was seen as emblematic of the catostrophic losses the Democrats faced. In 2006, it looks like it will be NRCC chair Tom Reynolds turn. He is down 15% after this Foley scandal broke. And I am almost 100% that Hastert won't be around next year either. He will resign after losing the Speaker's spot, either by losing control of the House or in falling on the sword after a narrow victory.

Earth to LaVar: you've lost already

LaVar Christensen believes that he can make the pitch that if Matheson wins reelection, Pelosi will be Speaker and the Democrats will legislate immorality...Even after Rep. Mark Foley's scandal continues to break.

Christensen's ad says: "Political experts are reporting that for the first time in 12 years, Democrats in Washington have a strong chance of winning enough seats in the coming election to take control of Congress.
"What will that mean for you, for Utah and America? ...
"It will mean increased dependence on foreign oil, rising gas prices and falling moral standards."

This is what he means by 'America needs Utah.' Utah needs to save America from itself because somehow more people will have abortions with a Democratically controlled House. Even though in this same America (I haven't seen polling in Utah on it), a majority/plurality of Americans trust Democrats over Republicans in EVERY area...including moral values. And having Chris Cannon blame Mark Foley's lust for underage boys on the boys themselves isn't going to help LaVar any.

The irony of blaming Democrats for any dropping moral standard "is self-evident on its face," said Matheson. "It is their (Republican) Party that's seen four different members resign" for questionable behavior "in just this term of Congress."
...
"Democrats are the ones who embrace abortion and same-sex marriage," he [LaVar] says.
"Massachusetts has chosen to accept (Rep.) Barney Frank and what he does. But in Utah that is not our standard. Why should Utah contribute to the taking over of Congress by the Democrats?" said Christensen. Frank has openly declared that he is gay.

Somehow with Mark Foley, Iraq, Abramoff, the economy, health care costs, and all the rest, that the imaginary specter of gay marriage and abortion is going to do it. Let's face facts, Utah is never going to allow gay marriage unless some future Supreme Court forces it to. Ditto for loosening some of the tightest abortion regulations in the country. So anything a Democratic Congress might do will have no effect on Utahns.

Meanwhile, the NRCC hasn't given Utah's second district a dime of their money. LaVar claims it is because his campaign is doing so well that he hasn't bothered to ask for money. Riiiight. Matheson has AT LEAST twice as much money has you, and is up over 20 points in the polls, but you are doing great. Reality check from soon to be ex-Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign advisor Kirk Jowers:

The party's unwillingness to put money in the 2nd District "is one of the big signs that they don't consider it a competitive race."
"It's essentially the party throwing up the white flag that they know this is over for this seat" and is now focusing its finances on defending one of the multitude of vulnerable Republicans in other states, Jowers said.
Matheson, however, isn't counting the national party out, yet.
"There's no guarantee they won't come in. There's five weeks to go. I can't assume it's not going to happen. It's happened every other year."

Matheson is smart not to assume the best is going to happen and to campaign aggressively. Better to run up the score and really ensure that he will never get challenged seriously again then kick back and let it get close.

We have yet to see the third quarter numbers for this race, but I doubt there is much in LaVar's account other than his $650k. Jim probably has 1.5-2M, and has yet to spend any serious money yet. The good news for Utahns is that the only negative ads you will see will be from the candidates themselves, and most if not all will be from LaVar. Jim has no need to go negative or even acknowledge that LaVar exists.

Friday thoughts

Sometimes, my post contain multiple topics and ideas, and while they seem to all interrelate with tidy transitions to me, most see them as disjointed. So today, I will just do bullets my disconnected thoughts:

• This last week is probably the first time anyone other than Illinios voters and political junkies have even heard of Speaker Hastert. And their first impression: a guy who would rather keep a seat safe and save a couple million than protect teenagers from a known sexual predator.
  Hastert has become radioactive: no one wants him to raise money for them, let alone campaign with them. It is only a manner of time before he loses his job, either after or before November.


• Lohra Miller's "ask a cop" slogan referrs to the fact that the policeman's union of SLC and SL Co. Sheriff's union have endorced her. Why not just "say endorsed by county and SLC police officers?" Instead, people have defaced signs by mocking the slogan. i have seen the word "ask" struck through with and replaced with "kill" (which is terrible and I condone). Another has "Don't" inserted before "ask." Stupid slogan, if she just kept it simple with her "justice first" and a "endorsed" one would be better. "Ask a cop" requires the voter to do the work, and they won't.
  
  "Justice first" I found out, does refer to her critics of the DA's office, most of which are based on her lack of understanding or willful ignorance of the system.
  Her point that over 70% of sex crimes cases are dismissed when the defendant pleads guilty overlooks the fact that many times victims are unwilling to testify and sex cases tend to get weaker as time goes by: couples get back together, people forget details, stuff gets lost/destroyed, people move away, etc. The felony DUI cases dismissal rate is high because a felony DUI needs two certified DUI convictions within the last 10 years. These are often hard to obtain. Case numbers are misentered into the RAP sheet, files are archived or destoryed within a few years. Often, this means that a felony DUI charge is dismissed, and refiled as a misdemeanor DUI. So the notion that 20% of DUIs go away completely is eroneous.
  
  As to her charge that politics comes first, I haven't seen that personally.

Page-gate: how to handle it

This all could have blown over in 2005 and gotten rolled into a news dump on Katrina. Rep. Foley could have been pushed to not run for reelection, and the GOP could have kept his money (all $2.7M of it) and had time to find a decent replacement. The might have lost the seat, anyway, but at least they would have a fighting chance.

But once the news came out, the last thing the GOP leadership should have done was each talk about it separately and point the blame. With each telling differing stories and blaming each other, voters begin to think, "well one of them is lying, let's throw them all out." Next time, hold a closed door caucus meeting and vote the dude out of caucus and then have him resign immediately afterwards.

Next, take some blame. Say "hindsight is 20/20, but we should have heeded the warnings signs." Fire the staffer who tried to shove it under the rug that day too. Offer to have a full investigation after the election by the ethics committee.

Offer bills to reform the page program so that members cannot get too close, since appearantly pages in the well of the House are like Cookies in a jar.

In fact, the handling looks so bad that I am beginning to think this a coup to chop off the head of the GOP House leadership. Rep. Blunt lost the Maj. Leader race, and with Boehner, Hastart, and Reynolds all implicated in this scandal, he could become speaker/min. leader. Blunt could blame the loss of control on those guys, and cruise up the leadership ladder. And if the Dems win is very narrow, and 2008 is a big GOP year, his 4 year plan for the Speakership is done.

Or this could be a plan to purify the GOP by arch conservatives, social and economic. There is a list of Gay GOP staffers going around, ripe for posting on the internet and blacklisting. Some religious conservatives are blaming Foley's behavior oh his homosexuality. You don't see Barney Frank propositioning pages though. The current GOP in the House spend like drunken sailors with wads of cash, lust for power like they lust for pages and mistresses. The fist rots at the head as they say, and boy does that fish stink.

SLCo DA neck and neck

This race interests me because I will in all likelihood be applying for a position with the District Attorney about a year from now. And right now, my would be boss is unknown.



Another interesting finding is that

Gill has a lot more money in his war chest to get him through the last month of the election. According to recent financial reports filed with the county, Gill has approximately $30,099 left in his campaign fund, while Miller has $1,699.
Throughout the campaign, Miller has raised $94,338, while Gill has total contributions of $116,613.
Other races for Salt Lake County elected positions aren't nearly as close, with incumbents holding commanding leads, according to the poll.

By commanding they mean 60-40 races.
So with Gill's money edge, slight polling (within the margin of error) edge, and slightly superior billboards, it will all come down to turn out. Will Jim's massive cash edge and GOTV machine help Sim? Will it be a Democratic year in Utah too? These questions will all soon be answered in a month's time.

I love elections, as Herold Ford said, it's like Christmas. Except the day after Christmas has never been depressing for me.

Quote of the Day

"It’s hard for Americans, all of us, including me, to understand what’s wrong with these people,... Why do they hate each other? Why do Sunnis kill Shiites? How do they tell the difference? They all look the same to me." fmr. Maj. Leader Trent Lott (R-MS)

Remember these is representative of Republican leadership.

Sensenbrenner demands UT re-redistricting

Lame duck House Judiciary chairman Sensenbrenner, the author of the immigration bill that caused mass protests in the spring, now demands that Utah's legislature go into special session to approve the four-district map Huntsman proposed.

...Sensenbrenner, R-Wisc., says he won't allow a full hearing on a bill to give Utah a fourth seat and the District of Columbia its first vote in Congress until Utah lawmakers have a 'final Utah redistricting plan,'

This plan would make the second district a safe seat for Democrats, signaling the state GOP has given up beating Jim Matheson.

It looks like this will happen, with absolutely no input from Democrats on Salt Lake's Capitol Hill. "The governor is willing to call a special session, if appropriate,” said spokesman Mike Mower.

What Republicans don't understand is that this scheme may net two Democratic seats: one from D.C. (who really deserve representation anyway) and one more from Utah (assuming Jim runs in the new 4th or new 3rd and a decent [aka not Rocky] Democrat runs in the new 2nd). Hopefully, no one powerful in Utah or D.C. reads this blog.

Photo of the day

Your liberal media at work:

hattip: Rising Hegemon
The U.S. media is still fearful of the right wing noise machine (RWNM), so afraid of reporting the truth because when they do, the RWNM screams "liberal."

American media is anything but liberal. Individual journalists may be socially liberal, but the overal slant is risk-adverse against charges of liberal bias. So they go for celebrity or proxy celebrity. In this case, Annie Liebowitz, the photographer of the stars and most recently of Tom Cruise's baby. With all that is going on in the world, is that really the most important piece of news for the past week?

If you are going to do a proxy story on Tom Cruise's baby, why don't you contrast that with Brad Pitt's baby, and how the two stars decided to publicize their child's birth. Cruise gave an exclusive to some magazine and fancying photographer for millions. Pitt and Jolie had an auction for the photos to go to charity and also publicized a country at the same time. How many more teenybopers have now heard of Namibia that didn't even know it existed?

Why not do a story on how Bush is losing Afghanistan AND Iraq? That is big news for the U.S. and the world because it means terrorist may be at our collective doorsteps soon. It also means there will be one more failed state since 2001 than there was before. Iraq might have been ruled by an evil dictator, but it was under control.