Saturday, January 20, 2007

"I have a feeling it is going to be very interesting."

That is the closing line on Sen. Hillary Clinton's announcement video on her website. And this is one thing everyone should be able to agree on. Right now, there are about 7 Democrats in the race for the party's nomination, but only 4 real shots (HRC, Obama, Edwards, and Richardson) and the last one, Richardson, is on the outside looking in on the 3-way race. By contrast, the Republican side is McCain versus the anti-McCain, whoever wins that prize.

Both primaries look to be wide open. McCain probably will win the nomination, since there is no good consensus "true conservative" to challenge him...but he is looking pretty weak right now. But who knows, maybe the religious right will rally around Romney (unlikely because of the SBC's hatred of Mormons) or Gingrich (he seems to be Giullini's man) or Brownback (too dumb to be president after GWB). I predict a McCain/Gingrich ticket at this point, but its is way too early.

Democrats will squabble and might not know who their nominee is until after Super Tuesday, especially if it narrows to a Clinton v. Obama race. Hillary has sworn off taking any public money either in the primaries (like Kerry and Dean and Bush) or in the general, a first. Edwards and Obama are holding simultaneous fundraisers in NYC early February not just because it is Hillary's "home turf" but because there is a lot of money in that city. Richardson may be running for VP and even that race is tough, with Warner and Clark and Bayh as possible contenders.

AFSCME is holding a cattle call in a few WEEKS, so if Clark wants to even have a chance, he better announce before then. He is my first choice, but if he doesn't run, then I would say Obama, then Richardson, then Edwards, and then Hillary (in that order). I think Hillary has done a great job as Senator and should stay there, where her talents and shortcomings are best matched.

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