Wednesday, September 22, 2004

An overlooked corner of a 2000 recount rerun

In Colorado, there is a voter referenum to split the electoral college votes (all 9 of them) based on winning percentage, with winner getting the marjory. Right now, poll say Bush has either a small or large edge in this Rocky Mountain state. This would mean Bush would get 5 and Kerry would get 4 electoral votes. If Kerry gets all the Gore states plus a New Hampshire, West Virgina and Nevada (AKA 13 electoral votes), then it would be tied 269-269, assuming the amendment fails [tie goes to Bush, given that the House will most likely be GOP-run]. Keeping that in mind, look at these polls on Amendment 36, which GOPers are understandibly against.

A Ciruli Associates poll; conducted 9/14-18 for the Pueblo Chieftain; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.0% (Pueblo Chieftain, 9/22). Note: Whenever available, we will compare a poll's party ID breakdown with the state's party ID breakdown from the 2000 exit poll. For this poll, the voter sample was made up of 42%R, 33%D, 25%I/Other; In '00, the state's electorate broke down 36%R, 35%D, 29%I/Other.

Amendment 36: Splitting Electoral
Support 51%
Oppose 31

A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 9/12-13 for Rocky Mountain News/News 4; surveyed 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.3% (Rocky Mountain News, 9/22).

Amendment 36
Favor 47%
Oppose 35

Keep in mind too that the Ciruli Associates poll wasn't a left-leaning poll, Bush was winning 50-38-2 with Nader and 51-39-10 (undecided) with just Bush and Kerry. Also note that polls done by GOP or Democratic groups should always be viewed with skepicism; I personally give the other side a few more points (usually the Margin of Error) to balance it out.

Both polls show this Amendment winning, one shows it a runnawy hit, the other shows it under 50 and hence iffy. Nonetheless, this is another state to monitor for wierd stuff on November 2nd/3rd. I can imagine a 269-269 tie with a recount over this amendment, and hordes of lawyers pouring into Denver. Stay tuned.

No comments: