Saturday, October 23, 2004

Why Kerry will win

Right now, it looks like the only states up for grabs (according to the travel schedules of both candidates) are FL, OH, PA, NM, WI, IA with CO WV and AR thrown in as bubble states. But if you look at where Bush is visiting, it is FL NM WI and IA. He hasn't really been to OH for weeks, nor has he been to PA. If Bush doesn't win FL and WI, he can't possibly win; IA and NM simply aren't enough to do it.

Personally, I think NM is going to go Kerry simply for the fact that Richardson is governor and is going to pull out all the stops for Kerry so that he can either get a job in the Kerry administration or run for President in 2008.

I am very concerned about IA and WI, which long-term seem to be trending GOP. Kerry is falling consistently (although narrowly) behind in IA. Again, a Democratic governor and Labor Unions should help narrow this gap, but it makes me nervous.

Back to OH though. The simple fact is whoever loses 2 of the 3 big swing states (OH FL and PA) has a lot harder time winning because the margin for error is so small. If Bush really is putting all his eggs in FL and WI because his brother promised and delivered last time, he's in real trouble.

Kerry, in contrast, is feeling pretty good in OH and PA (although not enough to not do a Clinton rally in Philly Monday) and is even trying to expand the playing field to CO and NV. I think Kerry can win FL and maybe CO. IA will be a very narrow victory; NV is a real stretch, but the minimum wage ballot initiative and Yucca Mountain may do it, although early voting isn't looking too good.

WI I still think will come home. I hope those ACT people have moved from MO to WI, because Kerry has pretty much given up on MO (National Democrats have also given up on the Senate and Governor's races there). Funny, it all comes down to Wisconsin. Does Feingold have enough reverse coattails (same for Salazar in CO) to get Kerry WI? I sure hope so. Otherwise, it is a long look at Broward, Palm Beach and all those infamous counties in FL.

Jessie Jackson and Al Gore are doing a good job of keeping the blacks in FL reminded how they got screwed in 2000. They will keep turn out high. And the flotillas of lawyers in OH and FL should keep things interesting. I am expecting a HUGE turnout across the nation...around 115-20M voters, which is about 15-20% higher than 2000.

Bush is painted in a corner. I really do think that he will rack up big margins in Red States, get good portions in Blue states, but lose most of the important purple states, and Kerry will win the electoral college while losing the popular vote, which would be great not only because of Irony but also because then we would finally look at reforming the electoral college (CO's Amendment 36 anyone?) b/c both Democrats and Republicans would want a change.

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