Saturday, October 09, 2004

The morning after

As I and the polls have said, last night's debate was a slight Kerry victory overall, but a pronouced victory amoung the all important independents. Every Democrat I have talked to are so relieved (they were worried that Kerry would be Gore-like or worse) and happy with the selection of Kerry after both debates, Bush supporters got a bit worried after last weeks debate but after this one, they seem to be happier (especially after Cheney made their case for them).

And Gallup backs me up on this. Their latest poll, shows that Kerry won the debate with Indies 53-37 BC04 hasn't done itself any favors this week. Overall, Democrats have easily been able to knockdown their lies and Democratic statements that seemed fishy were actually backed up by non-partisan groups and even the so-called liberal media.

I expect to see a slight Kerry bounce and movement in the swing states in his favor. Immediately after the debate, Bush headed straight towards the pro-life questioner who was blushing left and right over his black-and-white stand on the issue. In fairness, Kerry went over to the mistakes questioner, who (as far as I could tell) proceeded to lecture him on what his answer should have been. Kerry though didn't seek out his supporters in the panel, where as Bush went for the obvious conservatives (the woman who wore the american flag shirt).

Bush has given up on moderates and swing voters and Kerry is still holding hopes for some to swing his way. The only effort Bush has made towards swing voters is scaring them into thinking he is the only one who can keep them safe. Kerry's Mount Rushmore persona and efforts over the past two debates have eased people's concerns about his spine and confronting threats to our country.

In the end, I think Kerry will end up with 290 EVs assuming that CO's iniative doesn't pass. Between the election and inauguration I will be putting out the much-delayed Third Avenue Platform. While critics may say it is just a copy of the Democratic Party Platform, you will see areas were I noticibly differ. Hopefully I will be able to do it considering the amount of work coming up after this "break."

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