Sunday, October 03, 2004

When is a swing state isn't one

This is the bit of bad news for Kerry...and Bush.

Most of the so-called swing states either never were or have already swung. Here's my list of pertend swing states.

  • MI: Kerry is up well over the margin of error and has never dipped below it. They have a Democratic governor and ACT has packed up its shop in the state because they were doing so well.

  • MO: Kerry has pulled all his ads from this state, the staff effort has apparently been half-assed. The only hope Kerry has there is ACT and/or Senate Candidate Nancy Farmer, who is down about 10 points to Kit Bond last time I checked.

  • OR: This might be close, but it won't be as close as in 2000, where Nader got 7 percent, same goes for WA. Nader will get less than one. See Nader's failure to get a 1,000 signatures in a day, a thousand. Now that is sorry.

  • NJ: Democrats were sweating bullets about polls showing Bush tied or leading in NJ because he has blanketed the state indirectly to blanket PA. The concern was that with 9/11 and Bush's hard-right pro-Israel stance, he just might steal New Jersey. So VP candidate Edwards showed up in Newark, and now Kerry is up over 10 points. That's all it took.

  • DE: same goes for this state...

  • TN: Kerry folks claimed that they were close, but 10 points is only a scare. Same goes with VA. Maybe in 2008, maybe with Edwards as the candidate, not with Kerry.
  • AK: Bush is up over 10 points here since forever. Maybe if we had Clark as the candidate it would be close.

  • AZ: Kerry has no ads in the state, and the staff presence has been virtually invisable. Polls show 50-38 Bush lead.

  • NM: After a brief blip, Kerry is back on top with a comfy margin. Governor Bill Richardson won't let Kerry lose because he wants to run someday.

  • LA: It goes without saying, but Kerry has no prayer here.

  • NC: Dream on Kerry-Edwards...too bad Bush isn't taking the bait.

  • ME: polls show that Kerry is still up over the MoE and only occationally have we seen Bush up. Just because his Dad lives there, doesn't mean he will win.

State's that are true swing:
  • WI: Dude, what the hell happened here? Isn't this the home of countless Democratic senators, governors, and congresspeople? Even Mondale won Wisconsin. I don't get why Bush is up 10 point here. Kerry and ACT needs to get over there and fast.

  • OH: ACT's poll and registration efforts have proved that this state is still in play, despite CW stating that it has gone Bush. But this will be a tough one for Kerry, who will have to get 2000 Bush voters to change their vote for him.

  • FL: Nobody really knows who's up or down in this crucial state because of three hurricanes. With lots of campaigning and the 2000 recount and disenfrancizement of African-Americans still in peoples minds, I feel that Democrats will turn out.

  • PA: This should be in Kerry's pocket already.

  • NH: Like PA this should be in Kerry's pocket already and in the end, I believe both states will end up in Kerry's corner.

  • IA: Everytime I see an Iowa poll, it is either tied or a slight Bush lead. I would be currious to see if Kerry gets a bump in this state after his debate performance.

  • NV: The Yucca Mt. issue is one that will make this state more up for grabs than it was in 2000. I wouldn't lay money down for either side on this state.
  • WV: Althought it is usually a democratic state, Bush won it last time. Kerry had been up due to jobs, but Bush's GOPers are scaring people with cultural issues. Last time it was "Gore will take your guns away;" this time it is "Liberals will take your Bibles away" next thing you know, they will claim the MA senator will force people to marry gay people.

  • CO: This state is closer than the last Gallap-like poll I saw, and the electoral college spliting ballot iniative make this state a sleeper pick for Kerry.

  • MN: I could say the same thing I said about WI. Isn't this the home of the late Senotor Wellstone? How come they have all these GOP elected officials?

That's it, don't believe the hype on the other states, just focus on the true swing; so goes these, so goes the nation.

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