Sunday, October 03, 2004

Picture of the Day

So that's how it feels to go from being up by 11 point at the beginning of the month to be 2 points down (via Newsweek's Poll)... a 13 point swing!

Of course this is just one poll, and one taken immediately after the afterglow of the debate. This means it is flawed in the same way (although not to the same degree) as polls showing a big Bush lead after his speech at the convention.

Again, my bet is that the race is basically tied at about 48% each, with Nader getting a generous 1% and the other 3% undecided. Some have said that Bush's celing is his current percentage, but I think that is a bit generous to the Democratic side. Definately most of the undecides will either stay home or break for the challenger. I am guessing, based on talking to wise sage and poll-reader Ed Kilgore that 2/3 of the undecides will break Kerry's way. And assuming that ACT and the other 527s really are out performing the GOP like newspaper articles (citing numbers from secretary of state's offices in swing states), then that might get Kerry another point or two.

It's gonna be tight again, but when it is all over, I still believe Kerry is going to end up on top. And the best part is, years later, no one will admit to voting for George W. Bush. Just like Nixon.

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