Wednesday, November 03, 2004

It shouldn't have been this close

Right now, as I am sure you are aware, Ohio is narrowly going to for Bush with the issue of provisional ballots and absentee. Of course, Bush is doing the old routine of claiming victory.

We are either on the cusp of disaster or the end of a nightmare. But from the title you can tell I am not happy.

Where were the voters of my generation? I bought into the hype of having everyone I talk to saying they were going to vote. Of course, I don't talk to people who don't care about politics for the most part. 17% is pathetic people.

What happened to the ground game in Florida? Why is Bush clobbering Kerry so badly there? Is it like 2002, where the Bush family looked more vulnerable than they really were? Did all those Hurricanes in the state and red counties drive people to the polls?

Another thing to think about is Rove's Evangelical plans. Most of the Blogosphere thought he was dreaming and that there weren't that many out there to get that Bush didn't get before. But Rove had an Ace up his sleeve: anti-Gay Marriage Amendments before a third of the country.

It got conservative people to the polls in states that should have been closer, and red states where there was a good democratic candidate for senate. Plus, having a candidate from Massachusetts to run against on this issue was a gold mine of votes for Rove. No matter how many times Kerry said "I believe marriage is between a man and a woman," people in culturally conservative states wouldn't believe him because of Goodridge. This is why CNN et al could call WV for Bush as soon as the polls closed.

Again, if it had been an Edwards-Clark ticket, some of this would have been neutralized and states like MO WV NC and AR would have been more competitive and might have swung for the Democrats.

Democrats are too decentralized and too disorganized right now to be a majority party. Kerry had to rely on a coalition of 527s and others to bring home the voters in states like FL, and they failed. Right now, the only Bush state they swung Kerry is NH (good work Jaime & Co.), but its measly 4 electoral votes aren't enough to stop Bush should Ohio fall.

I pretended to sleep last night and tossed and turned, praying Ohio would somehow go Kerry. It looks like we won't know until the end of the week, unless Kerry finds out that the number of outstanding votes is less than Bush's margin in Ohio. I am not feeling as optimistic and angry as I did in 2000; this year, I am just sad.

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