Monday, November 01, 2004

Tough to/for Swallow

After a month of down-and-dirty advertising by both candidates, it looks like Matheson weathered the storm:

An Anzalone Liszt Research (D) poll; conducted 10/20-21 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/26). Tested: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) and '02 nominee John Swallow (R).

General Election Matchup
Matheson 57%
Swallow 34
Undec. 9

Of course, again this is Democratical poll so we will give Swallow 2-3 points or so. The important thing is that Matheson is still over 50 even with large MoE. I have heard internal polling has Jim at 53 or 54, which sounds more like my guess. That is still 3 or 4 points better than he did last time and amazing after all this slime that has oozed out of my TV.

While doorknocking in Magna, voters told my dad repeatedly that they wanted to vote against "that Swallow" I will leave out the juicy epithets. Keep in mind, this is a democratic leaning neighborhood and more importantly, NOT in Jim's district. But still that may be a sign of other voters in the Second district.

Utahns really don't like negative campaigning and Swallow has a track record of fighting dirty races. Jim wins this by a wider margin than last time, but not as much as he was up at the beginning of the month.

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