V-day, part III

Leaked 4pm exits, via Slate as referred by Kos.

NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46


Very interesting...again looks good for Kerry and seems to be more realistic than the 2pm exits. We could have a long night, since all these are super close (except Michigan, which I never thought would be that close). If Kerry's FLOHPA numbers hold, Bush is a one-termer like his daddy.

These numbers match my expectations much more than the 2pm and I tend to believe them more. But again, these things can be off. After all, the exit polls in FL in 2000 were so pro-Gore that they called the state for him right away.

This makes me think all the states on this list save CO MI and maybe WI will NOT be called for several hours after closing.